The linear correlation, date and size of field, has been disproven. ----- Original Message ----- From: "The Buffalo In Da' Midst" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: <PEN-L@SUS.CSUCHICO.EDU> Sent: Sunday, July 15, 2007 11:30 AM Subject: [PEN-L] Peak (Oil) Math - In Defense of the Hubbert Linearization Method
> Courtesy of Bill Totten @ [a-list]: > > by Jeffrey J Brown and "Khebab" > > The Oil Drum - DrumBeat (June 25 2007) > > > The Hubbert Linearization (HL) method (the Hubbert Linearization term > was coined by Stuart Staniford, with The Oil Drum) is essentially > based on the mathematical observation that a parabolic (bell shaped) > curve can be plotted as a line, when we plot P/Q versus Q, where P is > annual production and Q is cumulative production to date. The > parabolic curve assumption is based on the premise that we tend to > find the big fields first. In essence, "Peak Oil" is the story of the > rise and fall of the big fields. > > The parabolic HL model suggests that the world and Saudi Arabia are > both probably now in terminal decline. While the overall world decline > may be quite gradual, the impact on world oil exports will probably be > very severe. See the following article for more information on the HL > method: Texas and US Lower 48 Oil Production as a Model for Saudi > Arabia and the World {1}. > > Note that if the Ghawar Field in Saudi Arabia is in long term decline, > which I believe that it is, it is my understanding that every single > field that has ever produced one million barrels per day (mbpd) or > more of crude oil (crude + condensate) is now in decline. Saudi Arabia > has one field coming on line that might make one mbpd, although a lot > of people have their doubts. The only real confirmed one mbpd and > larger field on the horizon is Kashagan, which probably won't break > the one mbpd mark until 2020 at the earliest. > > As many people know, Kenneth Deffeyes predicted, using the HL method, > a world crude oil peak between 2004 and 2008, most likely in 2005. (He > observed that world production apparently peaked in 2000, but he never > backed away from his mathematical model that the probable peak was > between 2004 and 2008.) > > In any case, in the above referenced Texas/Lower 48 article, we > supported Deffeyes' work, and we added the Texas model. I observed > that Texas peaked at a later stage of depletion than the Lower 48. > Post-peak, Texas declined at a faster rate than the overall Lower 48. > This was the basis of my warning a year ago that the world and Saudi > Arabia were on the verge of a decline in crude oil production. It may > be a coincidence, but relative to monthly peaks in 2005, world crude > oil production is down more than one percent and Saudi crude oil > production is down about eleven percent (EIA data, crude + > condensate). > > Note that the initial Lower 48 decline was quite gradual, less than > one percent per year for the first two years. Also note that the world > has the benefit of the non conventional tar sands production that was > not a factor in the Lower 48. > > A key piece of data in support of an involuntary decline for the world > and Saudi Arabia is the price of oil. The average monthly Brent crude > oil price in the twenty months prior to May 2005 was $38 per barrel. > The average monthly Brent crude oil price after May 2005 has been > about $62, within a range of $54 to $74. Again, we saw this pattern of > higher oil prices and lower production in the Texas and the Lower 48 > in the Seventies. > > The Lower 48 peaked in 1970. Based only on production through 1970, > the Lower 48 was right at the fifty percent of Qt mark in 1970 (Qt is > a mathematical estimate of Ultimately Recoverable Reserves for a > region). > > Russia peaked on a broad plateau centered on 1984. Based only on > production through 1984 Russia was right at the fifty percent of Qt > mark in 1984. Russia made from just above eleven mbpd to just below > eleven mbpd for five years on both sides of 1984. > > At my request, Khebab generated a post-1970 production profile for the > Lower 48 and a post-1984 production profile for Russia, using only > production data through 1970 for the Lower 48 and through 1984 for > Russia to generate the models. > > The post-1970 cumulative Lower 48 production, through 2004, was 99% of > what the model predicted it would be, see Figure One {2}, Hubbert > Linearization technique applied to the Lower-48. Only the data between > 1942 and 1970 (green points) are used to perform the fit (red curve). > > The post-1984 cumulative Russian production, through 2004, was 95% of > what the model predicted it would be. In other words, Russia was > "underproduced" through 2004, see Figure Two {3}, Hubbert > Linearization technique applied to Russia. Only the data through 1984 > (green points) are used to perform the fit (red curve). > > In 2006, Russia "caught up" to where it should be. Now, as Russia has > approached the 100% mark (100% of what it should have produced based > on the HL model), its year over year increase in production has been > slowing appreciably, and since October 2006, the EIA has been showing > basically flat production for Russia. > > By the way, based on data through 1999 and 2005 respectively, both the > North Sea and Mexico started declining right at their respective fifty > percent of Qt marks. > > Now, a lot of claims that the HL method is inaccurate are based on a > misuse of the method. In most cases, we don't get an accurate Qt > estimate until we get a P/Q intercept in the five percent to ten > percent range. For example, a lot of people use the UK as an example > of where the HL method doesn't work, but this is based on wildly > improbable early P/Q intercept of thirty percent. > > A lot of the disbelief/denial about a World/Saudi peak is very similar > to the reaction that we saw in the Lower 48/Texas in the Seventies. > Probably nine out of ten Texas oilmen were shocked that Texas didn't > show increasing production after the Texas RRC went to a 100% > allowable in 1972. > > But the bottom line is that we are using a fairly objective method > that takes the two pieces data that we have the most confidence in, > annual and cumulative production, to generate mathematical models. And > many large producing regions - Texas; Lower 48; Total US; North Sea; > Russia and most recently Mexico and the world - have shown production > patterns that are consistent with the HL models. > > The most common response I get to all of this is simply denial. The > reserve situation "can't be that bad". > > All I can tell you is what the mathematical models are telling me. In > a nutshell, I think that the reserve situation is that bad, and I > think that we are facing the near certainty of rapidly declining net > export capacity worldwide. > > While reasonable people can disagree on what the annual and monthly > production data are telling us about our proximity to Peak Oil, in my > opinion it is a virtual certainty that Peak Oil, from the point of > view of importers, is here. This virtual certainty is due to the > absolutely lethal combination of flat to declining crude oil > production in exporting countries and the (sometimes rapidly) rising > domestic consumption in exporting countries, resulting in sometimes > catastrophic declines in oil exports. For example, based on EIA data, > net total liquids exports by the UK dropped at an annual rate of sixty > percent per year from 2000 to 2005. > > In effect, in my opinion the very lifeblood of the world industrial > economy is draining away in front of our very eyes. The only question > is how fast the patient is bleeding to death. > > Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but you wuz warned. > > > Links > > {1} http://graphoilogy.blogspot.com/2006/05/texas-and-us-lower-48-oil-production_25.html > > {2} http://static.flickr.com/43/108482206_8769d44c1c_o.png > > {3} http://www.theoildrum.com/files/Russia_HL_resultb.png > _____ > > Jeffrey Brown is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, > Texas area. His e-mail address is westexas [AT] aol.com. > > "Khebab" has a Masters Degree in Physics and a PhD in signal > processing. He is currently a researcher in a computer vision lab in > Quebec, Canada, with ten years experience in R&D. > > http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2689#more > > > http://www.billtotten.blogspot.com http://www.ashisuto.co.jp >