Major developments in Syria and Turkey
http://www.911forum.org.uk/board/viewtopic.php?p=173194#173194
July 22, 2016
http://thesaker.is/major-developments-in-syria-and-turkey/
This article has been written for the Unz Review:
http://www.unz.com/tsaker/syria-and-the-coup-in-turkey/
This week has been marked by two major events:
the USA and Russia agreed to a common plan for
military coordination in Syria and the failed
coup in Turkey has been followed by a massive purge of the Turkish elites.
Syria:
The Russians had really no option but to accept
to work with the USA in Syria. They way in which
they did it was very elegant, however: Lavrov and
Kerry have agreed to a joint long-term ceasefire
whose exact terms are to remain secret, which
indicates to me that the Russians forced the US
into concessions which the latter don’t want to
be made public. How do we know that it was
Russian who forced concessions on the USA and not
the other way around? Simple – there was no US
“leak” to the media and the Russian bombers have
resumed their operation with a new intensity.
Besides, it is pretty obvious that in Syria at
least Moscow holds all the cards now and Kerry
has therefore no means to put pressure on Russia even if he wanted to.
But the main development for Syria is still the coup in Turkey.
Turkey:
What happened in Turkey is huge. So big, in fact,
that I even suspect that the numerous rumors
about an Erdogan-orchestrated false flag could
have been started by the US propaganda machine
(since when to even mainstream media outlets even
discuss false flags?). Not everybody bought into
the false flag theory, not Sibel Edmonds and not
M. K. Bhadrakumar. Not only did these two reject
the false flag theory, they also explained in
detail the role of the USA in this coup. To their
testimony I can only add that I have been
contacted by several well-informed readers from
countries neighboring Turkey who have also told
me that at least a “faction” inside the USA has
had advance knowledge of the coup.
There are now reports that Russia also had
advanced warning and that Putin personally warned
Erdogan. I won’t repost the full FARS article
here, but I strongly recommend reading it:
http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950430001452
If all of the above is true, that might also
explain why some have sincerely felt that this
might have been a false flag. If the Russians
really did warn Erdogan, then his best move would
have been to let the coup begin to unmask all the
conspirators and their sympathizers and only then to crack down on them.
The magnitude of the purge in Turkey is nothing
short of amazing: Erdogan is clearly engaged on a
massive and brutal campaign to ruthlessly purge
entire social classes which he perceives,
probably correctly, as hostile to his rule. So
while we can rejoice that a US-backed coup has
failed, we should have no illusions about how is
now in power in Turkey: a ruthless and
unpredictable megalomaniac who should never, ever, be trusted.
There are, however, objective reasons to also welcome these developments.
First and foremost, the Turkish military is now
being decapitated and it will be in no condition
whatsoever to try to crush the Kurdish resistance
or, even less so, to invade northern Syria.
Second, Erdogan and Daesh are apparently on a
collision course (the official Turkish version is
that they did the airport bombing) and that means
that Daesh lost a key supporter.
Third, now that the Turkish threat has been
neutralized for the foreseeable future (5 years
at least), Russia is in a much better position to
deal with the Takfiri crazies in Syria and with
their Wahabi backers in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.
Fourth, there is a non-trivial possibility that
Turkey will now openly declare the US/NATO/EU as
an enemy of the regime. Not only is the USA
harboring the CIA-controlled Gulen, but it turns
out that some of the aircraft involved in the
coup took off from Incirlik. Considering that
Incirlik is basically US-run, this means that the
US fingerprints are all over the coup. Right now
Erdogan is still too weak to take on the US and
NATO, but if he succeeds in completely purging
his enemies from the centers of power in Turkey,
I would not put it past him to simply leave NATO
completely. This is not likely, only possible,
but should that happen that would be a formidable loss for the Empire.
Fifth, there are interesting conversations taking
place in the public debate in Russia.
Zhirinovski, who is often used by the Kremlin to
“test the waters” for various Kremlin-backed
ideas, is now suggesting that Russia should form
a trilateral military alliance with Iran and
Turkey. Again, there are many formidable
obstacles to overcome before anything like that
happens but, again, this is now at least possible
(maybe not an alliance, but some kind of cooperation is likely)
Sixth, for the Syrian government the failed coup
is quite literally God-sent. Not that Assad and
Erdogan will ever have a love-fest again, but
Assad must now realize that his most formidable
adversary has now been neutered and that this
completely changes the strategic dynamic of the
war for the liberation of Syria from the
Takfiris. Add to this the agreement between
Russia and the USA which, however insincere and
temporary, at least precludes a direct US attack
on Syria (as demanded by the 51 Neocon crazies at
Foggy Bottom). Add to this the very real
possibility that Trump will be in the White House
next year and I would suggest that, all in all,
things sure look way better today for Syria than
they did just a couple of weeks ago.
Seven, no matter what happens next, Turkey as a
whole has been tremendously weakened by this coup
and the subsequent purge. Not only that, but this
one if far from over, Edmonds even speaks of a
possible “2nd wave coup”. But even if that does
not happen, and even if Erdogan remains in power,
the Kurds now will be facing a much weakened
enemy and might decide that it is “now or never”
for them to try to free themselves form the
Turkish yoke. So there is a very real possibility
that Turkey will simply fall apart (again,
“possibility” is not the same as “likelihood”).
But since we are still far away from this
possibility actually materializing, it would be
premature to go there. However, even if Turkey
does not break up, a much weakened Turkey is
likely to have to agree to the kind of
concessions which a powerful Turkey would never
have accepted: this is not only true for the
Kurds, but also for the Russians and Iranians. In
other words, now is the ideal time to begin some
very intense and far reaching negotiations to try
to force Turkey to become a responsible and predictable actor in the region.
The biggest problem with all this is, of course,
the rise of the kind of neo-Ottoman Islamism
which Erdogan has promoted to come to power and
which is now infecting large segments of the
Turkish society. There is now a real risk for
Turkey to go down the terrible path which Algeria
had to take to deal with the FIS and, later the
GIA (the big difference being that the FIS never
really got to power). This is why the neo-Ottoman
Islamists are now ruthlessly purging both the
secular Kemalists and Islamist Gulenists (a weird de-facto alliance for sure).
Russia and Iran have to be extremely proactive in
trying to “channel” Erdogan into some kind of
semi-sane form of state Islamism which would not
serve as a Petri dish for the kind of horrors
which costs so many lives in Algeria. The good
news is that Turkey certainly has the potential
of finding a unique form of conservative Sunni
Islam which does not have to find inspiration in
the Wahabi crazies of Daesh or the Muslim
Brotherhood in Egypt. Maybe Chechnia under
Kadyrov could at least in some aspects inspire a
modern form of modern Islamic traditionalism?
Again, the main problem is Erdogan himself. But
since this is unlikely to change in the
foreseeable future, all the countries neighboring
Turkey have to accept this reality, however
uncomfortable, and try to make the best of a radically new situation.
For the time being we reasonably can assume that
Erdogan will prevail. If that is indeed what
happens, he will be way too busy to deal with
major international issues. What is certain is
that Erdogan has imposed a three months long
state of emergency and that he will be meeting
with Putin in early August. Whether Putin “saved
Erdogan” as some claim, or whether Russia just
gave him advanced warning of the coup, it is
pretty darn clear that Erdogan now vitally needs
Putin’s support and that Putin knows that. Soon
the world will find out what exactly Putin had in
mind when, following the downing of the SU-24, he
announced sanctions against Turkey and then added
“?????? ?????????? ?? ?? ???????????”” (you will
not get away just with tomatoes). There will be a
price to pay for Erdogan and Erdogan knows it.
But Putin also knows that now is the time to
negotiate with Erdogan, so the price will be
substantial, but reasonable. At the end of the
day, Russia and Turkey need each other, at least
to prevent another, it would be the 13th, Russian-Turkish war.
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