STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update December 9, 1999 Federalism Splits Indonesia's Government Summary Just months after East Timor's independence vote, President Abdurrahman Wahid's Cabinet of National Unity is divided on how to quell urgent separatist movements in the restive provinces, particularly Aceh, that threaten to rip the country apart. Now, a growing debate over Wahid's proposed solution - turning highly centralized Indonesia into a federal system - divides his three- month old government. Ultimately, Wahid may find his power and agenda checked by a union of nationalists that recalls the days of Sukarno: a union of Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri and the armed forces. Analysis On Dec. 7, Indonesian Defense Minister Juwono Sudarsono joined the raging debate in the government concerning the merits of transforming Indonesia into a federalist system as the solution to its widespread separatist problems. He echoed the position of many Indonesians by saying that federalism is the "first step toward uncontrollable separatism." The debate over transforming unitary Indonesia into a group of federated states - an idea championed by President Abdurrahman Wahid himself - has struck at the heart of nationalist sentiment in Indonesia. It has created deep rifts in the president's Cabinet of National Unity [ <http://www.stratfor.com/asia/countries/indonesia/Elections/indonesianewcabi net.htm>http://www.stratfor.com/asia/countries/indonesia/Elections/indonesi anewcabinet.htm ], which now prevent it from being the "government of national reconciliation" that Wahid had intended. More dangerously, it has allied two powerful nationalist forces that stand firmly opposed to federalism: Vice President Megawati Sukarnoputri, whose party has the largest presence in the legislature, and the Indonesian armed forces, which still wields substantial control over the country. As a result, Wahid may soon be forced to abandon his own agenda for national reconciliation. Wahid first initiated the controversy when he suggested federalism - a collection of relatively autonomous states organized around a central government in Jakarta - as a possible compromise to calls for independence in Aceh. As a Nov. 29 Jakarta Post editorial pointed out, federalism is still a "dirty word" to many Indonesians, whose constitution calls for a highly centralized government, a unitary state. Along with former rival Amien Rais, Wahid apparently believes that federalism is now the only recourse to safeguarding unity and stability. Rais, chairman of National Mandate Party (PAN), leads the "axis force," the coalition that helped bring together Wahid's current government. Both men are the former heads of the two largest Muslim groups in Indonesia. The decision by these two formal rivals to pursue federalism may be driven by a desire to break up the old Sukarno and Suharto empires, both of which lie in the rich natural resources in the provinces. Federalism would give the provinces significant control over these resources and effectively redistribute the country's wealth. Opponents of such redistribution include conservative elements of the Golkar Party, Megawati and her Indonesian Democratic Struggle Party (PDI-P) and the Indonesian armed forces. All Wahid's opponents are linked to the old regimes and advocate keeping power concentrated in Jakarta for good reason: they do not want to lose the wealth they amassed during the Sukarno and Suharto eras. As well, Megawati is a fervent nationalist. She is the daughter of former President Sukarno, the founding father of unified Indonesia. Wahid's Cabinet is now falling apart, deeply divided by disparate visions of the future of Indonesian unity. Many signs of turmoil have emerged in the past weeks. For example, members of the United Development Party (PPP), the largest party in the axis coalition, have accused Megawati's PDI-P of attempting to undermine the coalition and discredit the government. Not surprisingly, Megawati's party seems to be at the center of the disturbance. In recent weeks, her party has sought to censure Amien Rais, specifically because he supports federalism. In a formal request to the Indonesian Congress (DPR), the PDI-P faction argued, "Amien Rais's statement on federalism is against his official oath as the people's representative which requires him to remain loyal to the Pancasila (the state ideology) and the Unitary State of the Republic of Indonesia." The PDI-P also emphasized that it would defend the Unitary State "at all cost." But Wahid's calls for federalism have ruffled the feathers of a far more powerful bird: the military, which exerts a great deal of influence over the government. Under both Sukarno and Suharto, the military was set up specifically to be the backbone of a unitary Indonesia; federalism is directly at odds with its job description. Many of its members hold official government positions. As well, former armed forces chief Wiranto, now coordinating minister for political affairs and security, takes an authoritative role in cabinet meetings. According to Defense Minister Sudarsono in a Dec. 3 Washington Post interview, "Wiranto on occasion becomes effectively the president and the vice president as the same time." With powerful forces aligning against him, Wahid is struggling to maintain unity among the elite. First, he has attempted to regain control of his Cabinet, recently pushing for the resignation of several members who may be linked to corruption or party factionalism, possibly planning to replace them with political unknowns who also support federalism. He has used the calls for resignation to attack Golkar, one element of the anti-federalism opposition. Golkar is an easy target, due to its links to the old regime. Although he has still not announced the names of those targeted, numerous reports in Indonesian media suggest that they are Golkar members. However, this will not solve his problems, since his stronger foes remain almost untouchable. Megawati's popular support is too strong to attack; meanwhile, the military would not hesitate to respond to threats with force. As such, Wahid and elements close to him have made efforts to placate the military. Most recently, his Foreign Minister Alwi Shihab said the government would not hand over any generals to the United Nations to be tried for human rights abuses in East Timor. Defense Minister Sudarsono has also defended the generals, saying, "We can't go up into the high ranks, as they were just carrying out state policy." Wahid is clearly under pressure, and may be forced to retreat from the controversial issues of federalism in order to hold together the disintegrating unity of the elite. He may have one card to play in response to pressure from the nationalists: the Muslims. Although Wahid's recent attempts to re-establish ties with Israel have upset many Muslims, his role as a great Muslim leader - coupled with that of Rais, his partner in the federalism debate - could help check waning political sway. Yet Wahid's recent actions suggest he is not confident in his position, whether he holds the Muslim card or not. The wheels of dissent are already turning, and will accelerate as the country's provinces continue to assert themselves. Meanwhile, the influence of Megawati will continue to grow. Her party is capable of exerting significant influence: PDI-P holds several key Cabinet positions, and the largest number of votes in the legislature. The disintegration of the Cabinet will only strengthen her position. With the military already holding significant power over the government, the alliance of the two could completely undermine Wahid's influence. Bound together by nationalism and a determination to protect Sukarno's Unitary State of Indonesia, Megawati and the military could soon dominate the government.
