Global Strategy Company: 'With Us, or With the Terrorists': Arab Governments in Quandary 2300 GMT, 011008
Summary Most Muslim governments have initially avoided condemnation of U.S. air strikes against Afghanistan. But the muted response does not necessarily portend these governments' future positions on the war. An extended U.S. campaign against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban regime risks incensing Islamic radicals in several countries, presenting a very real danger to the governments of those nations. For the moment, the danger is minimal and controlled, but as time passes, the threat will increase in direct proportion to the defeat of Taliban forces in Afghanistan. Analysis Palestinian police killed two demonstrators Oct. 8 after protesters showing support for Saudi exile Osama bin Laden began firing at security forces, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported. The clash occurred at a rally organized by Muslim militant group Hamas, but the Palestinian Authority has banned such protests to avoid a repeat of the Sept. 11 demonstrations, in which Palestinians were shown celebrating the terrorist strikes on New York and Washington. Too Little Too Late in Egypt? Domestic pressure is mounting within Egypt to sever diplomatic relations with Israel. As a result, Cairo, a key mediator in the Middle East peace process, has taken a more rigid stance against Israel. The ruling National Democratic Party’s shift in attitude toward Israel may temporarily affect its position in peace negotiations. But the move may come too late to save it from losing seats to the outlawed Islamic opposition in the upcoming parliamentary elections. Click here to continue. Related Analysis: Terrorism: The Algerian Connection -2 October 2001 Indonesian Jihad Threatens to Aggravate Instability -21 April 2000 The Palestinian Authority's ban on protest rallies is a telling example of how Muslim governments in general are responding to the U.S.-led military campaign against Afghanistan's Taliban regime. Islamic governments throughout the world ignored recent calls by bin Laden and the Taliban for jihad, or holy war, against the United States. But siding with Washington, even if by default, will become more politically dangerous for these governments in the days to come. The governments of Muslim nations such as Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Yemen must now balance cooperation with the United States against a surge in radical Islamic opposition. Their de facto approval of U.S.-led military operations against Afghanistan suggests these governments -- for the moment at least -- feel secure against a radical threat. This is an important factor in determining the policies of Arab and Muslim governments regarding the U.S. anti-terror campaign in the coming months. During the upcoming Organization of Islamic Conference summit, scheduled for Oct. 10, discussion will center on the U.S. war against Afghanistan. But the underlying issue -- and the sideline meetings -- will involve discussions of plans to stave off looming threats from Islamic radicals. A multitude of radical organizations have a presence in nearly every Islamic nation. Bin Laden and his al Qaeda network represent only a fraction of these groups. From underground militants in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Saudi Arabia to guerrilla forces in Algeria, Pakistan and Yemen, Islamic radical groups have been trying to overthrow their respective regimes since the 1930s. The predictable and recently begun military campaign against bin Laden and the Taliban threatens to embolden these fringe groups, expand their support base and give them an opportunity to revive popular opposition to their respective governments. The rise of radicalism is exactly what most Muslim governments -- even conservative ones such as that of Saudi Arabia -- fear. For example, the Palestinian Authority was quick to distance itself from statements bin Laden made in a previously recorded videotape broadcast by Qatar's Al-Jazeera television station Oct. 7. Bin Laden vowed that the United States would know no peace until there was peace in Palestine, but the Palestinian information minister said his people "don't want crimes committed in the name of Palestine," the Associated Press reported. Some nations, including Iran and Iraq, have condemned the U.S. military strikes, but they have little to lose and much to gain by adopting such stances. Neither country is threatened by Islamic radicals, and both are already suffering under U.S. sanctions. In Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's condemnation of the U.S. campaign bolsters support for his hard-line clerical regime and underscores Iran's own geopolitical interest in Afghanistan, where Tehran has long supported forces opposed to the Taliban. On the one hand, a U.S.-led war against bin Laden and the Taliban will exponentially increase the value of some Muslim nations as allies to Washington. Jordan, for instance -- which is threatened less by Islamic fundamentalism than by a growing Palestinian population -- offered the United States limited military aid in its campaign, including the use of the kingdom's air space and the pre-positioning of equipment and troops, Middle East News Line reported Oct. 8. This follows recent reports that al Qaeda had planned to assassinate King Abdullah of Jordan and his wife last year. Amman knows offering the United States such direct support may secure the tiny nation's chances for U.S. military aid and investment in the future. But at the same time, Muslim governments must not appear supportive of indiscriminate U.S. attacks on another Muslim country. For example, protests by Egyptian student Oct. 7 and 8 in Alexandria and Cairo drew thousands, according to Agence France-Presse. In Saudi Arabia dissident clerics have issued religious decrees -- known as fatwas -- threatening to excommunicate the Saudi royal family for its support of U.S. strikes against Afghanistan, The Guardian reported Oct. 8. Public government statements from either Cairo or Riyadh would spark unrest in both capitals. Both moderate regimes such as that of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak and conservative rulers like the House of Saud in Saudi Arabia now face the danger of a rising tide of radicalism that opposes ties with the United States. Meanwhile, any Muslim government that condemns the U.S. action risks its own relationship with Washington by appearing to side with the perpetrators of the Sept. 11 attacks against the United States. Faced with two equally bleak options, most Muslim nations will do nothing decisive in the short term. Beyond tightening security at home and criticizing the impact on civilians, nations such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia will sit tight and wait for the chips to fall. Inaction, however, can be as risky as action. As the U.S.-led military campaign against the Taliban heats up and fighting in Afghanistan pulls in a variety of factions, radical fringe groups in many Islamic countries are likely to grow. 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