Wednesday, November 10, 2004 http://chronicle.com/daily/2004/11/2004111001n.htm
Foreign Enrollments at American Universities Drop for the First Time in 32 Years By BURTON BOLLAG The number of foreign students on American campuses declined last year by 2.4 percent -- the first drop in foreign enrollments since the 1971-72 academic year. The figures, which confirm widespread predictions, appear in the latest edition of "Open Doors," an authoritative annual report on academic mobility, which is scheduled to be released today. "We don't know if this is the tail end of a short-term trend or part of a long slide," said Peggy Blumenthal, vice president for educational services at the Institute of International Education, which publishes the report. But the finding, she said, is "a wake-up call" that points to a need for urgent action. Despite recent moves to reduce impediments for foreign students, such as visa delays, more must be done, she said. And a concerted effort is needed to counter perceptions in many countries that the United States no longer welcomes foreign students. The report, "Open Doors 2004," examines the 2003-4 academic year, the latest for which complete data are available. But two less-comprehensive surveys, released this month, indicate that the decline in foreign enrollments is continuing this year. A survey of major graduate institutions, conducted by the Council of Graduate Schools, found a 6-percent decline in new foreign enrollments this fall, the third year in a row with a substantial drop. And a survey of 480 institutions by five organizations found that more had seen decreases than increases in foreign enrollments this fall. That trend suggests, the groups said, that the overall number of international students at American institutions is likely to be even lower this academic year than last. The trend is especially pronounced in graduate studies, they said. The five groups are the Association of American Universities, the Council of Graduate Schools, the Institute of International Education, Nafsa: Association of International Educators, and the National Association of State Universities and Land-Grant Colleges. In a written statement, Patricia S. Harrison, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for educational and cultural affairs, said the data pointed to a "temporary decline." "But I am confident," she added, "that both the situation and the numbers will improve." Debra W. Stewart, president of the Council of Graduate Schools, agreed. The 6-percent decline in new international graduate-student enrollments this fall is not as steep as the 10-percent drop her group measured last fall. "It looks like we've turned the tide," she said. Moreover, this fall's 6-percent decline "is not nearly as bad as had been feared," she said. It followed a 28-percent drop in applications from foreign graduate students that her group registered last spring, and an 18-percent fall in admissions in September. Graduate schools have limited the decline, said Ms. Stewart, by working hard to help admitted foreign students meet the more-stringent visa requirements that have been imposed since September 11, 2001. Other education leaders were less sanguine. "It's not easy to reverse these declines once they've started," said Victor C. Johnson, Nafsa's associate director for public policy. "We could be looking at several years of decline." Officials tended to agree on the reasons for the decline, chiefly the real and perceived difficulties in obtaining student visas, especially in scientific and technical fields. Widely acknowledged government efforts to reduce delays in issuing visas appear to have mostly come too late to affect this year's enrollments. "It's important to keep the pressure on them to improve it further," said Mr. Johnson of Nafsa. But even when some practical problems are resolved, a negative reputation may be hard to shake. "Perceptions abroad are lagging behind reality," said Mr. Johnson. "The word is out on the street in China: You can't get a visa to study in the United States." Meanwhile, other English-speaking countries, especially Australia, Britain, and Canada, have been vigorously recruiting international students. And data suggest that they are succeeding in attracting students who in previous years might have gone to the United States. In addition, some countries that traditionally send many students to the United States have been building up their own higher-education capacity in recent years. "China is developing graduate programs at a rate that is inconceivable," said Ms. Stewart of the graduate-schools council. "Open Doors 2004" paints a complex picture of the 2003-4 academic year. Its 2.4-percent overall decline in foreign enrollment -- to 572,509 -- is the result of a 2.5-percent increase in graduate students and a 5-percent drop in undergraduates. Many officials expect foreign enrollments to continue to fall for the next few years. An especially large drop in graduate enrollments is predicted because of a continuous decline in new foreign enrollments in graduate programs since the fall of 2002. It takes several years for a decrease in first-year enrollments to translate into a drop in overall levels. Total enrollments from India, the largest sending country for the fourth year, increased by 7 percent, to 79,736, but undergraduate enrollments from India fell by 9 percent. Total enrollments for students from China, the second-largest sending country, fell by 5 percent, to 61,765, but undergraduate enrollments dropped even more sharply, by 20 percent. Numbers of students rose by approximately 2 percent from South Korea, the third-largest sending country, with 52,484, while undergraduate enrollments fell by 1 percent. Total enrollments fell by 11 percent from Japan, the fourth-largest sending country, with 40,835, but undergraduate enrollments dropped more, by 14 percent. And total enrollment rose by 2 percent from Canada, the fifth-largest sending country, with 27,017, while undergraduate enrollments fell by 3 percent. Nafsa has called on President Bush to convene a White House conference of senior officials from the government, higher education, and the private sector "to elaborate a national strategy on international education." "All of our competitors have long since implemented strategies to recruit foreign students," said Mr. Johnson. "It's time for us to enter the competition." Nafsa says needed measures include a government-wide recruitment policy for foreign students, removing "the gamut of government barriers" to visas for foreign students, a program of loans to help foreign students, and a central Web portal to provide prospective foreign students with information on America's "uniquely complex" higher-education system. More-detailed analysis of the "Open Doors" report, including comprehensive statistics, will appear in next week's issue of The Chronicle, which will be posted online on Monday. The report will be posted on the Web site of the Institute of International Education today.
