>If somebody produced a trace showing the buffer lookups in order

To get things moving, I've created a DTrace script that captures buffer
reads:
https://github.com/vlsi/pgsqlstat/blob/pgsqlio/pgsqlio

Is it something that can be used to capture live traces?

Sample output can be seen here:
https://github.com/vlsi/pgsqlstat/tree/pgsqlio#pgsqlio

For instance (time units are nano-seconds):

     Timestamp  Elapsed  ForkNum BlockNum  TableSp DataBase Relation Cached
 3271837060212     1563        0        1     1663    16385     1259      1
 3271838881374    88205        0        0     1663    16385    16604      0
 3271840973321     4368        0        0     1663    16385    16604      1

If DTrace is acceptable, trace format might be adjusted for easier
consumption by https://github.com/ben-manes/caffeine/wiki/Simulator

Vladimir

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