And yet...
A shift in the Electoral College,a shift in perceptions?
September 15, 2008 09:40 AM EDT
There has finally been a shift in the electoral college map in the
past week.Mccain is in the lead now with 227 to Obamas 207 according
to real clear politics.Also in the 11 polls posted Mccain is in the
lead in 7 and tied with Obama in 2.
Since the convention Mccain has had an 18 point jump to a one point
lead on Obama in rassmussens national telephone survey asking voters
who they think will win.35% say Mccain,while 34% say Obama.While not a
very big lead it is a big difference from last month when 46% said
Obama and 28% said Mccain.
Also according to rassmussen,when voters were asked if they thought
the election was exciting,53% of Mccain supporters said yes while only
38% of Obama supporters said yes.Last month only 20% of Mccain
supporters said yes.
On Sep 16, 1:18 pm, PoliticalAmazon <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
> (BEGIN QUOTE)
> ...CNN's latest poll of polls consists of three recent surveys:
> Newsweek (September 10-11), Gallup (September 12-14), and Diageo/
> Hotline (September 12-14). It does not have a sampling error.(END OF
> QUOTE)
>
> This poll is worthless. There is no consistency between three
> different polls.
>
> The only way you can average things and have the outcome be meaningful
> is if what constitutes the "something" is consistent. For instance,
> if I told you that I averaged three numbers and the result was "5," it
> would be meaningless unless all three numbers were in in the same base
> numbering system. If one number ("11") was in base-10, one ("11") was
> in base-2 and one ("11") was in base-5, the result average would be
> 6.6667. However, if you assumed that they were all in base 10, you
> would expect the average to be 11.
>
> Same with polls. One of the polls wasn't even done on the same days
> as the other two. One didn't have a margin of error. There is no
> information regarding whether the three polls averaged all used
> "registered voters" or "likely to vote" voters (they give different
> results). There is no indication that the polls were conducted in the
> same way, asked the same exact questions worded the same way, used
> the same methods to contact voters, voters were contacted at the same
> time of day, etc. In all likelihood, they were not conducted in the
> same way,
>
> CNN should be sued for fraud. They imply these averaged polls mean
> something when they do not.
>
> This poll, and all others like them, are worthless.
>
> ------
>
> On Sep 16, 3:35 am, "mike532 [ vote for America , vote against
> McCain ! ]" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>
>
>
> > CNN POLL OF POLLS: McCain's convention bounce gone
>
> > http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/15/cnn-poll-of-polls-mcc...
> > McCain is dead even with Obama in CNN's poll of polls.
> > (CNN) – The bounce John McCain received in national opinion polls
> > following his party's convention and the selection of Sarah Palin to
> > the GOP presidential ticket appears to have evaporated, a new CNN poll
> > of polls suggests.
>
> > In the latest CNN survey of several recent national polls, Obama and
> > McCain are locked in a dead heat at 45 percent each with 10 percent
> > who remain undecided with 50 days remaining until Election Day.
>
> > “When we average the latest national polls, it is increasingly clear
> > that neither candidate has any serious momentum at the moment,” said
> > CNN Senior Political Researcher Alan Silverleib. “The convention
> > bounces have faded and left us with a dead heat. Even though we are
> > now in the final stretch of this historic marathon campaign for the
> > presidency, the White House is still genuinely up for grabs.”
>
> > CNN's latest poll of polls consists of three recent surveys: Newsweek
> > (September 10-11), Gallup (September 12-14), and Diageo/Hotline
> > (September 12-14). It does not have a sampling error.
>
> > Filed under: Barack Obama • John McCain- Hide quoted text -
>
> - Show quoted text -
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