From: *Travis* Date: Sun, Sep 21, 2008 Subject: Heightened terror threat in the US: An important analysis
Heightened terror threat in the US: An important analysis *By Douglas J. Hagmann, <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Director* *http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa* *19 September 2008:* On Wednesday, the Northeast Intelligence Network<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>published an article stating that terror operations within the U.S. and Europe could be imminent. This threat evaluation is a product of several factors that have formed a pattern disturbingly similar to the conditions preceding the 2005 attacks in the UK. On 7 July 2005, a number of Muslim terrorists launched a significant attack on the London transit system<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>. Certain other elements of what we are seeing today have been noted to precede other attacks of notable significance, causing heightened concern among intelligence officials. The factors referenced above are a valuable intelligence assessment tool as they represent *patterns. In fact, we have seen these same patterns in the past, including the time immediately leading up to the July 7, 2005 bombings in London.* To effectively analyze the current threat environment, it is important to recognize historical patterns. It is also important to study and analyze seemingly random events that took place during the time leading up to terrorist attacks. By carefully identifying and documenting similarities, and by looking for numerous other factors that existed during those periods preceding attacks, it is possible to identify warning sings that only make sense in hindsight. Dismissing individual events out of hand by attributing them to incompetence of the terrorists, for example, is adhering to the same myopic tendencies that contributed to the intelligence failures leading up to the attacks of 9/11. *Internet Forums: Current status of Arabic language sites used by terrorist sympathizers* Many Arabic language forums used and frequented by Muslim terrorists are currently offline. Those with multiple mirror sites that have the ability to maintain an Internet presence<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>despite the best attempts to take them offline have indeed gone offline over the last several days. A similar scenario involving such Internet forums<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>existed in the days prior to the 2005 London bombing. *Al Qaeda Commemorative 9/11 video release: "The Results of Seven Years of the Crusades"* Following the attacks against the United States in 2001, al Qaeda, through its propaganda arm As Sahab, has traditionally released celebratory video messages <http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#> that commemorated the success of the 9/11 hijackers. These videos feature al Qaeda regulars such as Osama bin Laden, Ayman al Zawahiri, and Abu Yahya al Libi, among others. Such videos routinely contained compilations of file footage from the 9/11 attacks, as well as motivational messages from al Qaeda leaders. Just like this year, Arabic language Internet communications portals<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>and forums advertised the upcoming release of the video marking the anniversary of the 9/11 attacks. This year, however, the release of the video was inexplicably delayed until earlier this week. When it was finally released, however, the password supplied to uncompress the file contents failed, and the film could not be opened. With regard to the delay, certain media outlets erroneously credited so-called Internet <http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20080919DJHa#>"jihadist hunters" with somehow managing to cause the delay. If the media fully understood the manner in which these messages were disseminated, they would realize the ridiculous nature of such an accusation. With respect to the "password debacle" as it has been termed by at least one of those so-named "jihadist hunters," the apparent hubris associated with that distinction appears to have adversely affected their ability to evaluate anything beyond the most obvious. This is further evident by their offensive use of a word that by definition, "characterizes a person lacking intelligence or common sense" <http://mypetjawa.mu.nu/archives/194123.php>to describe al Qaeda's alleged blunder. Offensiveness aside, it is vital to *look beyond the obvious* and *not underestimate the enemy.* Based on my conversations this week with analysts active in the intelligence community, it is very possible that the video delay and improper password are deliberate acts on the part of the al Qaeda hierarchy. According to one intelligence contact: "the password could have been corrected by satellite phone within minutes." Indeed, there could be reasons that will perhaps only make sense in retrospect. Now that an updated version of the video has been released that does not require a password to open, could it be possible that the the contents of the videos might differ slightly, even if they appear to be ostensibly the same? Perhaps the restricted file was restricted for a reason, accessible only to its target audience. The non-password protected file, meanwhile, satisfies the masses expecting the commemorative video. Let's not hinder ourselves by underestimating the insidiously cunning nature of our enemy. *Posted communications (from terrorists with established track records* As published in our *article on Wednesday,<http://www.homelandsecurityus.com/20081917Arch> * a disturbing communication posted in a high level Arabic language forum suggests that some type of terrorist operation is currently underway, targeting sites within the United States and Europe. According to information developed within the last 24 hours by a deep-cover intelligence operative, Islamic terrorists have been dispatched to the U.S. and Europe and may be in place, preparing to execute unspecified terrorist attacks within the U.S. and Europe. Of particular interest: *Islamic terrorist operatives reportedly dispatched, in place, and possibly ready to execute terrorist operation in U.S., Europe* *"Pray for the successes of our brothers in America & Europe. Expect 'good news' soon."* *Posted by Arabic speaking Islamic terrorist supporter* *Additional indicators* There are more indicators that a heightened threat level exists, both domestically and abroad. For additional information, listen tonight as Doug Hagmann and Laurie Roth discuss these issues on *The Roth Show.<http://www.therothshow.com/> * *To our site visitors:* Be part of tonight's show - listen live via one of the many radio stations nationwide, or live on the Internet. Take this opportunity to call in with your questions and comments - now is your opportunity to be heard. The Roth Show is nationally syndicated across the United States by the IRN-USA Radio Network, and can be heard from 10:00 p.m. ET (7:00 p.m. PT) through 1:00 a.m. ET. For a list of stations or to listen on line, visit *The Roth Show <http://www.therothshow.com/>* website. *(F)AIR USE NOTICE: All original content and/or articles and graphics in this message are copyrighted, unless specifically noted otherwise. All rights to these copyrighted items are reserved. Articles and graphics have been placed within for educational and discussion purposes only, in compliance with "Fair Use" criteria established in Section 107 of the Copyright Act of 1976. The principle of "Fair Use" was established as law by Section 107 of The Copyright Act of 1976. "Fair Use" legally eliminates the need to obtain permission or pay royalties for the use of previously copyrighted materials if the purposes of display include "criticism, comment, news reporting, teaching, scholarship, and research." Section 107 establishes four criteria for determining whether the use of a work in any particular case qualifies as a "fair use". A work used does not necessarily have to satisfy all four criteria to qualify as an instance of "fair use". Rather, "fair use" is determined by the overall extent to which the cited work does or does not substantially satisfy the criteria in their totality. If you wish to use copyrighted material for purposes of your own that go beyond 'fair use,' you must obtain permission from the copyright owner. For more information go to: **http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml*<http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml> * * *THIS DOCUMENT MAY CONTAIN COPYRIGHTED MATERIAL. COPYING AND DISSEMINATION IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE COPYRIGHT OWNERS.* __._,_.___ Messages<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/grendelreport/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJmYW90OGZnBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNtc2dzBHN0aW1lAzEyMjIwNDgxODk-> [image: Yahoo! Groups]<http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJldHM1NGxtBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNnZnAEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjA0ODE4OQ--> Change settings via the Web<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/grendelreport/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJnNWE3cDQzBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNzdG5ncwRzdGltZQMxMjIyMDQ4MTg5>(Yahoo! ID required) Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest<[EMAIL PROTECTED]:+Digest>| Switch format to Traditional<[EMAIL PROTECTED]:+Traditional> Visit Your Group <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/grendelreport;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMzNxZjVmBF9TAzk3NDc2NTkwBGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDZnRyBHNsawNocGYEc3RpbWUDMTIyMjA0ODE4OQ-->| Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>| Unsubscribe <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Recent Activity - 2 New Members<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/grendelreport/members;_ylc=X3oDMTJna2czZjFkBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2bWJycwRzdGltZQMxMjIyMDQ4MTg5> Visit Your Group <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/grendelreport;_ylc=X3oDMTJmOGkwc2dnBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzEyMjIwNDgxODk-> Yahoo! News Fashion News<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13octu69j/M=493064.12016309.12445701.8674578/D=groups/S=1705323667:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222055390/L=/B=Uw4LH0LaX.o-/J=1222048190009425/A=3848621/R=0/SIG=12u6o6g3h/*http://news.yahoo.com/i/1597;_ylt=A9FJqa5Gxa5E2jgAYQKVEhkF;_ylu=X3oDMTA2MnU4czRtBHNlYwNzbg--> What's the word on fashion and style? Curves on Yahoo! A group for women<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13pod6f6l/M=493064.12016299.12445691.11322765/D=groups/S=1705323667:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222055390/L=/B=VA4LH0LaX.o-/J=1222048190009425/A=4990221/R=0/SIG=11odsb6gn/*http://new.groups.yahoo.com/Women_Of_Curves_Everywhere> to share & discuss food & weight loss. Real Food Group Share recipes,<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=13ol2m6se/M=493064.12016243.13036160.8674578/D=groups/S=1705323667:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1222055390/L=/B=VQ4LH0LaX.o-/J=1222048190009425/A=5379226/R=0/SIG=11gatb1qb/*http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/hellmanns/> restaurant ratings and favorite meals. . __,_._,___ -- *~@):~{> -- *~@):~{> --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls. * Read the latest breaking news, and more. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
<<inline: ball1.gif>>
<<inline: puzzle.jpg>>
