U.S. Housing Starts Fell to 17-Year Low in September By Bob Willis
Oct. 17 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. builders probably broke ground in September on the fewest houses in 17 years, a sign the real- estate market deteriorated even before the recent credit meltdown, economists said before a report today. Housing starts fell 2.6 percent last month to an annual rate of 872,000, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 74 economists. Another report may show consumer sentiment fell in October for the first time in four months. Builders will find it difficult to lure buyers into the market after stock prices plunged this month and banks made qualifying for a mortgage more difficult. Declines in construction are likely to continue to hurt economic growth well into 2009, extending the housing slump into a fourth year. ``Housing starts will show declines in coming months due to the credit crisis and the weak economy,'' said Terrin Griffiths, an economist at the California Credit Union League in Rancho Cucamonga, California. ``The housing market is continuing to struggle toward a bottom.'' The Commerce Department's report on starts is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 840,000 to 935,000 units. Building permits, a sign of future construction, probably fell 2 percent to an 840,000 pace, according to the survey. At 10 a.m., the Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary estimate of October consumer sentiment probably fell to 65 from 70.3 at the end of September, according to the survey median. Renewed Slump The biggest housing slump in a generation was showing signs of nearing a bottom when financial markets began to implode in September, leading to the government takeover of mortgage finance companies Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the failure of banks and a $700 billion government rescue plan this month. Recent events are likely delaying any return to stability. ``These things are putting a new nail'' in the housing market's coffin, David Seiders, chief economist at the National Association of Homebuiders, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television yesterday. ``This sort of vicious feedback loop is still in play.'' The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index of builder confidence decreased in October to its lowest level since records began in 1985, the Washington-based association said yesterday. Combined sales of new and existing homes have fallen 36 percent from their peaks in mid-2005. Home construction has declined 61 percent from a peak in January 2006. The supply of unsold homes on the market remains above 10 months' worth of sales, signaling homebuilding is likely to continue falling. Declining Prices Home prices in major cities are down an average of 20 percent from their mid-2006 peak after nearly doubling in the prior six years, according to research by Yale University economist Robert Shiller. Falling prices are contributing to the jump in foreclosures as Americans, trying to refinance adjustable-rate loans, find out they owe more than their homes are worth. The drop in prices also means owners can't tap home equity for extra cash, one reason behind the slowdown in consumer spending. Homebuilders are still reeling. Lennar Corp., the second- largest U.S. homebuilder, on Sept. 23 reported its sixth straight quarterly loss as potential buyers struggled to get mortgages and rising foreclosures increased the supply of homes on the market. ``The weakness in the market actually accelerated as a result of increased foreclosures, weakened consumer confidence and tightened mortgage lending standards,'' Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said in a statement. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls. * Read the latest breaking news, and more. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
