JULY 28, 2014
THE FUTURE BELONGS TO LIBERTY
Back in Iraq?
Foreign policy déja vù all over again
by DOUG BANDOW
Little more than a decade ago, the United States invaded Iraq. The
promised cakewalk turned out far different than expected. Today its
government and entire state, created by Washington, are in crisis. Yet
the same voices again are being raised calling for military intervention,
with the promise that this time everything will turn out well.
Social engineers never seem to learn. It is hard enough to redesign and
remake individuals, families, and communities in the United States. It is
far harder to do so overseas.
Nation-building requires surmounting often vast differences in tradition,
culture, history, religion, ethnicity, ideology, geography, and more.
Doing so also requires suppressing people's natural desire to govern
themselves.
It doesn’t matter if Americans could do it better. With positions
reversed they would insist that the foreigners, however well-meaning,
leave them alone. Imagine if the French offered tonay, insisted
onsticking around at the end of the Revolutionary War to “help” the
backward colonials make a new nation. Guns would again be pulled down
from fireplace mantles across the land!
Yet these days Washington continues to try to fix the world’s problems.
In recent years the United States has deployed forces to Haiti, Somalia,
Bosnia, Kosovo, Afghanistan, and Iraq. Occupying these lands was in no
case a military necessity. Nation-building has not turned out
particularly well.
However, until now Washington at least has limited itself to one bout of
society-molding per country. Reentering Iraq would be an attempted redo
barely a decade after the first go. Rarely has a victorious war proved to
be so fruitless and counterproductive so quickly.
Remember the original promises surrounding the Iraq operation? A quick,
bloodless war would destroy dangerous weapons of mass destruction and
“drain the swamp,” eliminating terrorism.The United States would
guarantee a friendly, compliant government by imposing as president an
exile who hadn’t lived in the country for decades. The new Iraq would
implement democracy,eschew sectarian division, protect women’s rights,
and even recognize Israel, while providing America bases for use in
attacking neighboring states, including Iran, which with its Shia
majority shared manifold religious, cultural, and personal ties with
Iraq.
It was a wonderful wish list. Alas, it turned out to be pure fantasy. The
conflict killed thousands and wounded tens of thousands of Americans,
while killing hundreds of thousands of Iraqis and displacing millions
more. The ancient Christian community was destroyed. The ultimate
financial cost to the United States, including the expense of caring for
those who sustained debilitating wounds, will likely run $3 trillion or
more. The invasion stained the United States’s reputation, empowered
Iran, and gave training to a new generation of terrorists.
Finally, Baghdad’s sectarian misrule wrecked national institutions and
fostered the rise of an ugly Islamic totalitarianism. While the ISIL
“caliphate” is likely to find it harder to actually rule than to claim to
rule, the movement now calling itself the “Islamic State” seems capable
of creating more than its share of human hardship along the way.
That's quite an impact from that one little invasion so long ago. Other
than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?
The obviousindeed, onlypolicy for Americans is to run, not walk, away
from the mess.
Yet many of the architects of the original disaster are back, advocating
a second shot. Never mind the past, they argue. No need to cast blame,
they assert. Everything was going swell before the new administration
took over.
The President is putting in Special Forces. Many others advocate drone
and air strikes. A few forthrightly call for boots on the ground. William
Kristol and Frederick Kagan, for instance, want Washington to take on
everyone: Defeat ISIL, force Baghdad government to include Sunnis, and
make Iran withdraw its military aid. A three-sided war this time! What
could possibly go wrong?
There’s no doubt that ISIL is a malignant force. But the United States
should make clear to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki that Americans will
not bail him out after his policies led to the ongoing catastrophe.
Without political reform it is hard to see how Iraq can be
saved.
Part of the political response must be to engage Sunni tribes and former
Ba’athists who allied with ISIL to oust the national government from
Sunni areas of Iraq. It is unlikely that they want to go back to the
seventh century; in fact, they already are chafing under the group’s
ruthless Islamic rule, as well as increased economic hardship after being
“liberated” by a pretend nation state. Iraq’s Shia majority needs to
propose reforms that offer Sunnis a better option than remaining in
caliphate hell.
In any case, Washington should drop its insistence that Iraq stay
together. Kurds are moving toward a vote for independence. Sunnis are
deeply alienated. Baghdad’s Shiite leadership remains committed to narrow
sectarian politics. Extensive federalism/partition may be the only way to
prevent endless killing.
The United States also needs to stop supporting Syria’s opposition.
Instead, the priority should be stopping ISIL, which gained its first
victories, along with access to financial resources and military
material, in Syria. President Bashar al-Assad is odious, but his
dictatorship is not dedicated to destabilizing the entire region. If
Washington further undermines Assad, it will inevitably help ISIL. Arming
the moderate opposition, which so far has lost ground and weapons to the
radicals, might do little more than end up further empowering
ISIL.
Finally, American officials should invite allies, friends, and even
adversaries to cooperate to contain ISIL. The group’s professed ambitions
cover much of the Middle East. Numerous nations have good reason to
isolate, sanction, and even strike ISIL. Turkey has a first-rate
military. Jordan has a capable though fragile government, and a powerful
incentive to act: It has been destabilized both by Arab Spring sentiments
and by a refugee tsunami from Iraq and Syria, andit is in ISIL’s
gunsite.
Iran, though no friend, shares Washington’s antipathy toward ISIL and
wants to preserve rule by its co-religionists in Iraq. Lebanon is even
more vulnerable than Jordan. The Gulf states,including Kuwait, the
emirates, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, though mostly Sunni, also are
targeted for subversion. Israel does not want to see a radical Islamist
state, especially one that wrecks Jordan next door. These nations have
different capabilities and interests, but all could help contain and
ultimately roll back ISIL’s gains.
The Iraq war should have demonstrated beyond doubt that military
intervention has unintended and unforeseen consequences, just like
economic intervention. People devoted to individual liberties and limited
government should be particularly skeptical of proposals to expand the
stateafter all, war is the biggest Big Government programfor the
purpose of social engineering around the world.
The revival of civil war and veritable collapse of Iraq’s central state
are tragedies, but not ones affecting vital American interests. The
lesson from 2003 is clear: War truly should be a last resort, never just
another policy tool to be used when convenient. The Iraqi imbroglio
beckons the usual policy suspects, but the right response is to say, no,
the Americans aren’t coming.
http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/back-in-iraq
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- Back in Iraq? MJ
