GOP Senate Campaign May Feel Fallout of Stevens Verdict
http://www.truthout.org/102808S
A defiant Sen. Ted Stevens is returning to Alaska on Wednesday to
resume his re-election campaign, despite being convicted of felonies
that carry the potential of years in prison.
Stevens, 84, faces a challenge of historic proportions with just
one week before the election. He'd be the first convicted U.S.
senator
ever elected, on appeal or not.
Alaska pollsters and political consultants were skeptical of
Stevens' chances Monday but not prepared to count out the longest
serving Republican in Senate history. Several pointed out that,
contrary to most predictions, Stevens surged in the polls after his
indictment in late July, coming from far behind to what's essentially
a tie with Democratic opponent Mark Begich in most recent polls.
"That had to be people rallying to Ted against these Outside
influences attacking their senator. It's possible, extremely
unlikely,
that with the conviction we'll get another backlash against this
Outside influence," said Anchorage pollster Marc Hellenthal.
The mood at Stevens' Anchorage campaign headquarters was one of
stunned horror immediately after the conviction came down mid-day
Monday. People milled inside while two young volunteers stood in the
cold guarding the door. One of them looked close to tears.
Hours later, the news had settled in. The guards were gone, the
campaign ordered Moose's Tooth pizza for its workers and Stevens'
backers started talking about what's next.
"I think it will be a battle but we're going to throw every ounce
of effort into doing so," said political consultant Art Hackney, who
is working on the Stevens campaign.
Hackney said it's going to be a "nonstop campaigning, very
aggressive," once Stevens gets back to Alaska. He said the campaign
has to ask people to withhold their judgment.
"And basically what I think most people understand, it's really
three words - prosecutorial misconduct and appeal," he said. "And
other than that it's campaigning on the record of what he's done and
what he can do."
Sharp Divide
Larry Sabato, who publishes the nationally watched Crystal Ball
forecasts of congressional races, said he can't imagine Alaskans
would
re-elect a U.S. senator just convicted of seven felonies.
"It would make Alaska a national laughingstock," said Sabato, who
directs the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee appears to
have given up on Stevens.
"Ted Stevens served his constituents for over 40 years and I am
disappointed to see his career end in disgrace," said NRSC Chairman
John Ensign, a senator from Nevada.
Carl Shepro, a political science professor at the University of
Alaska Anchorage, said that kind of talk might be premature. Shepro
said he believes Stevens still has a real chance to win re-election
next week despite the conviction.
"Right now I'm in Fairbanks. It's pretty amazing the
advertisements for him and the testimonials and stuff," Shepro said.
"It's certainly difficult to think they are just going to turn around
because of the conviction, and with appeals this could drag out for
years."
Stevens' Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Begich, was playing
it safe on Monday. Begich read a 14-second statement that said it's
been a tough year but time to move on. He then refused to answer any
questions from reporters.
Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, who
recruited Begich to run, wasn't feeling so shy. He called on Stevens
to "now respect the outcome of the judicial process and the dignity
of
the United States Senate." The Alaska Democratic party said Stevens
should resign.
U.S. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky said
Stevens must face the consequences of the verdict and will be held
accountable so public trust can be restored.
But Alaska's other U.S. senator, Republican Lisa Murkowski, said
the prosecution committed several gaffes during the trial and she'll
stand with Stevens as he pursues his appeal.
Rural Support
There's nothing in the U.S. Constitution or Senate rules to keep
a
convicted felon from being a senator.
Stevens' colleagues could expel him with a two-thirds vote if
he's
re-elected, or even before his current term ends in January.
If Stevens resigned or was expelled, the seat would stay empty
until a special election within 90 days.
Todd Larkin of North Pole, who has been active in the state
Republican Party, said Stevens could win, and then resign, allowing
the Republicans to put up a candidate in the special election. That's
a potential scenario state party officials are talking about to keep
the seat out of Democratic hands.
Stevens isn't talking about resigning yet. His campaign sent a
message to supporters Monday saying "overzealous prosecutors"
deprived
Stevens of his rights and that 12 jurors who have never been to
Alaska
shouldn't decide the race.
Stevens is particularly strong in rural Alaska. Matthew Nicolai,
president of the Calista Corp., one of 13 regional Native
corporations, estimated Stevens represents about $1 billion a year in
federal projects to rural Alaska. He said the 40-year senator has
visited nearly all of the 56 villages in the Calista region at one
time or another. Nicolai said he thinks Stevens can still be re-
elected.
Rep. Reggie Joule, who represents Kotzebue in the state
Legislature, heard news of the verdict while preparing for a caribou
hunt. Joule is a Democrat but has stumped for Stevens during the
campaign.
During the Alaska Federation of Natives convention, some rural
voters walked to the nearby Anchorage City Hall to cast early ballots
last week - before the verdict, he said. "Sen. Stevens has a lot of
loyal backers, and a lot of people have voted already."
Asked if he still plans to vote for Stevens, Joule hadn't
decided.
"There's a piece of me that's really torn. So, I guess when I get
inside the polling booth, I'll cast my vote," he said.
Alaska Republican Congressman Don Young, who is under federal
investigation and facing his own tough re-election battle, said he
thinks Stevens can still win next week.
"He's the best thing for that, for the Senate. Alaskans know
this.
This is a trumped up charge.... I can remember Richard Nixon, you
know, his years of service, what he's done. And everybody were
ridiculing him and he ended up being the greatest president in the
history of our century," Young said.
Young, who has not been charged, said the Stevens conviction
doesn't make him more concerned about what federal prosecutors might
be planning for him.
"I have no problem with anything. I know where I'm going, where
I've been and what I've done," he said.
Pollsters Get Busy
Pollsters said a Stevens acquittal could have given Young a
needed
boost, helping to give voters doubt about the federal investigation
of
Young. Clem Tillion, a Republican former president of the state
Senate, seemed to agree.
"I think it's going to be harder on Don Young than it is on Ted
Stevens," Tillion said.
Alaska pollsters will be scrambling in the coming days to test
the
effect of Monday's conviction on both Young's U.S. House race and
Stevens' Senate bid.
Most recent polls have showed Begich and Stevens being
statistically tied. But a Craciun Research Group Inc. poll over the
weekend put Begich in the lead by 12 percentage points, after the
closing arguments but before the jury came in with a verdict.
Pollster Anne Hays said it's been a close race, according to her
numbers, but she expects "the dam to open up," following the
conviction. Ivan Moore, another Anchorage pollster, said there's no
way to know for sure what the conviction will bring.
"This is one of those situations where nothing like this ever
happened before," Moore said. "But I think it's pretty clear Ted's
going to have a hard time winning next week."
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