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NightWatch
For the night of 2 February 2015
Japan: Over the weekend, a senior Japanese diplomat described the
beheading of the two Japanese nationals by the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant
(ISIL) as Japan's 9/11. "It is time for Japan to stop daydreaming that its
good will and noble intentions would be enough to shield it from the
dangerous world out there. Americans have faced this harsh reality; the French
have faced it, and now we are, too."
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe promised to make the terrorists pay. "No country
is completely safe from terrorism. How do we cut the influence of ISIL,
and put a stop to extremism? Japan must play its part in achieving this."
Abe said the Self Defense Forces must have the mission of rescuing Japanese
citizens overseas. Abe also said Japan will not join the US-led coalition
fighting ISIL.
Comment: The ISIL executioner is responsible for precipitating a cultural
clash whose implications and ripple effects are enormous, but not yet
determinable. What is especially outrageous to the Japanese is that the ISIL
executioner said on the video that he was killing the hostages because Japan
was a member of the US-led coalition against ISIL. Japan has never
participated in the US-led fight against ISIL in Syria or Iraq in any fashion.
Actions, especially lies, have consequences. Prime Minister Abe has the
support of the people for seeking revenge, but in a Japanese way. Japan will
join the nations determined to kill ISIL, but not the US-led coalition.
Japan will send assassins.
For years, old hands have worried and speculated about what set of
circumstances or sequence of events would re-awaken Japan's martial spirit.
Ironically and naively, US policymakers and planners have struggled for
decades
to persuade Japan to increase its defense budgets; to take on a greater
share of responsibility for its own defense, and to participate more in
multilateral, global security operations by committing self-defense forces.
All of this was driven primarily by US budgetary considerations. Asian
leaders and survivors of World War II, however, wondered about the wisdom of
the US urging Japan to rearm under any circumstances.
Some experts judged that North Korean missile shots and nuclear tests
would heighten Japan's concern for its own defense. They were partially
correct.
NightWatch has no doubt that Japanese forces, acting in self-defense, have
developed the defense plans for attacking North Korea. They could and
would quickly destroy North Korea's puny nuclear weapons and missile
infrastructure without US help, should the occasion arise.
Japanese leaders have the will to attack North Korea in self-defense.
Oddly, the North Koreans do not seem to appreciate Japan's capability to
destroy North Korea - as a place suitable for human habitation.
Other experts judged that China's pretense to be the regional hegemon and
its assertion of sovereignty over Japanese-claimed islands would be the
catalysts for Japanese nationalism and militarism. They also have been
partially correct because Abe's government has identified China as a threat;
increased the defense budget; has sought amend the Constitution; and has
committed to building an aircraft-carrier based maritime self-defense force.
Another impetus for steady, but slow rearmament has come from recent
operations. These include naval support missions based in Mumbai, India,
during
the US fight to overthrow the Taliban; anti-piracy patrols off Horn of
Africa; naval exchange visits with India, and participation in peacekeeping
and humanitarian missions.
None of those, however, have had the effect of the two beheadings in
arousing Japanese nationalism and the national outcry for revenge. The
ignorant
Islamists who call themselves jihadists have done more in a single weekend
to awaken the Japanese military spirit than anything North Korea, China
and the US have done in seven decades. They have awakened a sleeping giant
hat is extremely dangerous.
Egypt: A court upheld death sentences for 183 Muslim Brotherhood members
for their roles in a 2013 attack on a police station near Cairo. Eleven
police officers died in the attack, which occurred after Egyptian military
forces cracked down on Islamist supporters of ousted President Mohammed Mursi
last July.
As for Mursi, he and 10 others face a new espionage trial on 15 February.
He is accused of leaking classified documents to Qatar and to Al-Jazeera.
Mursi also faces three other trials, including another case of espionage.
He and his co-defendants could be given the death penalty if found guilty.
Comment: The al-Sisi government and the senior religious authority have
sided against Mursi and would prefer to see him and his Brotherhood friends
executed. However, all 183 Brothers, Mursi and his cohorts can appeal their
sentences. Some will not be executed, lest they be revered as martyrs and
heroes
Ukraine: The government in Kyiv and the regime in Donetsk are making moves
to escalate the conflict.
The Kyiv government is attempting to rescue the forces in the Debal'tseve
pocket by committing more armor, artillery and soldiers, supported by four
Mi-24 helicopter gunships.
The Donetsk regime announced a general mobilization to create a force of
100,000 men. The draft apparatus is to be operational in ten days.
Comment: The fight for Debal'tseve continues to develop as the most
important battle in the Ukrainian civil war.
Ukraine claims it is reinforcing its forces in Debal'tseve. The
description of the forces committed to the Debal'tseve pocket, however,
indicates
Kyiv is trying to break through the rebel encirclement in order to rescue its
forces.
Actually, Kyiv is reinforcing a defeat, which never succeeds. The
Ukrainian forces should have been withdrawn a week or so ago, when the road to
Artemivs'k was open. A disaster is threatening for the Ukrainian forces in
Debal'tseve and for Kyiv.
Some analysts judge that the rebel call for general mobilization is a
cover for more Russian "volunteers" to rally to the defense of the separatist
regions. The population of the separatist regions is about 3 million
people. That population base has been reduced and cannot support an army of
200,000 fighters, including those now in combat. Expect more Russian
volunteers,
equipment, ammunition, and logistics support for the rebels.
The latest battlefield successes by the separatist forces and by the
Russian volunteers suggest a shift in Russian policy has taken place. In this
hypothesis, the Russians have concluded that Ukraine remains determined to
defeat the Russian-speaking separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk. Talks about
achieving a peaceful settlement are pointless
The near-term aim of Russian support now is to empower the separatists to
defeat Ukrainian forces decisively and to enable the separatists to expand
their territory to include all Russian-speaking portions of the Donetsk
and Luhansk Oblasts. Debal'tseve is the pivot point.
Libya: The internationally recognized parliament in Tobruk revoked a
controversial law that banned Qadhafi-era officials from taking part in
politics. The law was passed under duress in 2013 when armed groups in Tripoli
held
the government hostage.
Comment: The impact of the parliamentary action probably will be limited
in numbers, but might be significant in attracting quality respondents. The
move is an appeal for support that crosses tribal and militia allegiances,
i.e., an appeal to national loyalty as Libyans. Those who worked for
Qadhafi will have opportunities to serve again, maybe, in the Tobruk
government.
End of NightWatch for 2 February.
NightWatch is brought to you by Kforce Government Solutions, Inc. (KGS), a
leader in government problem-solving, Data Confidence® and intelligence.
Views and opinions expressed in NightWatch are solely those of the author,
and do not necessarily represent those of KGS, its management, or
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