[image: Jeb Bush Podium] Lynne Sladky | AP Photo
*Why Jeb Bush Will Never Be President* *Print* *By:* Steve Deace <https://www.conservativereview.com/search?keywords=Steve+Deace&type=author> | June 15th, 2015 *If you want to know where your member of Congress stands on the conservative spectrum and receive updates on the issues that matter most to conservatives, register for a Conservative Review® account today.* Jeb Bush’s presidential aspirations are over even as he’s officially launching them. It doesn’t matter how much money he raises. It doesn’t matter how much the liberal media tries to brainwash us about how he’s the only “electable” candidate we have. It doesn’t matter how many people he has shilling for him on *Fox News*. And it doesn’t even matter how unlikeable Hillary Clinton is or how little the public trusts her. When you remove all the emotion and propaganda, you’ll find recent presidential election history proves Jeb Bush is never going to be president. We can look at 1980 as the watershed year for such analysis because that was the moment of the last major political realignment in America – the Reagan Revolution. It produced two tectonic shifts: The Christian Right was born and the former solidly Democrat south began moving into the Republican column. The Christian Right, the formidable alliance of traditional Catholics and evangelicals forged by the likes of Paul Weyrich and Jerry Falwell (among others), gave Reagan a third leg to his stool that his upstart predecessor Barry Goldwater couldn’t have dreamed of in 1964. Prior to 1980, Catholics had only voted majority Republican once in the previous seven presidential elections <http://cara.georgetown.edu/presidential%20vote%20only.pdf> and evangelicals weren’t even considered a viable demographic until then. In fact, the first real attempt to mobilize evangelicals politically post-World War II was done in 1976 when Democrat Jimmy Carter openly advertised himself as a born-again Christian. But then *Roe v. Wade* changed everything. The Catholics were first to the front lines of the pro-life cause and evangelicals soon followed. Their shared courage of conviction on this issue produced the common ground for the coalition, which gave Reagan the nationwide grassroots army Goldwater never had. With the birth of the Christian Right, a majority of Catholics voted Republican in a presidential election three times in a row for the first time ever between 1980-1988. Not coincidentally, Republicans won all three elections. In fact, since 1980 Republicans have never won the popular vote in a presidential election without winning a majority of the Catholic vote. So, what’s the problem here? Isn’t Jeb a convert to Catholicism? Yes, but it’s not as simple as identity politics. See, Catholics don’t vote majority Republican as an isolated group or based on identity alone. As a voting bloc, they tend to be more in favor of bigger government than evangelicals, so what causes them to cross over are those pesky social issues that establishment candidates like Jeb Bush are eager to run away from <http://townhall.com/columnists/stevedeace/2015/02/28/jeb-bush-comes-out-of-the-closet-n1963389/page/full>. Therefore, if a GOP presidential candidate is weak on social issues, he will not win a majority of the Catholic vote—as Dole, McCain, and Romney each failed to do. That means he will also struggle with evangelical base turnout just like these specific examples from 2012 <http://www.redstate.com/diary/griffinelection/2012/11/14/what-went-wrong-in-2012-the-case-of-the-4-million-missing-voters/> : - Evangelicals made up 41% of the *Indiana* electorate in 2008, but were just 35% of the Indiana electorate in 2012. - Evangelical turnout was down 7% in Kansas compared to 2004. - Evangelical turnout declined in both Virginia and Minnesota. - Evangelical turnout in Florida and Nevada was higher for McCain in 2008 than Romney in 2012. - Obama’s evangelical turnout in the key swing state of Ohio actually improved from 2012 compared to 2008. The lack of traction Jeb Bush has with this key coalition is a bad omen. In such a crowded primary, he may be able to buy the nomination without them, but if he’s counting on all these folks just being there for him in the general election, he’s willfully ignorant of recent history. Just ask President Mitt McDole. However, simply having an energized base is not enough for a Republican to win the presidency. True, a GOP nominee will lose without an energized base, like Romney losing in 2012 despite being favored by independents nationwide. But the Republican candidate also needs to expand his coalition to middle-class voters to capture the general election. Longtime liberal writer John Judis recently wrote a thorough analysis <http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/the-emerging-republican-advantage-20150130> of this trend for *National Journal*, in which he points out how the Republicans have won the presidency every time they have won the middle-class vote since 1980. And when they haven't secured that vote, they have lost. It doesn’t get any simpler than that. By the way, Jeb Bush is already polling dreadfully <http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/03/11/poll-jeb-bush-fares-horrendously-with-middle-class-voters-only-4-percent-think-he-represents-them/> with middle-class voters. Another sign the GOP establishment’s Hemlock Society would rather lose elections to Democrats than lose control of the Republican Party to conservatives. Given these current and historical trends, I’m not sure which key state we need to win in the Electoral College a Jeb Bush nomination flips into our favor other than perhaps his native Florida. For example, just last year Republicans ran a Jeb Bush clone for U.S. Senate in Virginia, and he still lost despite the very favorable political environment. And since 1980, no Republican has won the White House without winning Virginia. [image: Rubio Fared Better Against Clinton than Bush] <http://mason-dixon.com/florida-poll-releases-2015/> Marco Rubio actually fared better against Clinton than did Jeb Bush in the last Florida poll <http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2015/04/poll-hillary-clinton-trails-jeb-bush-marco-rubio-in-florida.html>. Jeb versus Hillary was a statistical tie while Rubio was beating her outside the margin for error. And yes I agree that polls this early are nothing more than name-I.D. beauty contests, but that makes those results even worse news for a high name-I.D. candidate like Jeb Bush. So here’s what this all means: Jeb Bush 2016 isn’t a candidacy -- it's a suicide pact. Another sign the GOP establishment’s Hemlock Society would rather lose elections to Democrats than lose control of the Republican Party to conservatives. When you cut through the horse manure peddled as analysis by pretend conservatives in the media, the truth is Jeb Bush is Hillary Clinton’s best shot to win. Maybe, even, her only shot. *Steve Deace is a nationally-syndicated talk show host and also the author of the new book “Rules for Patriots: How Conservatives Can Win Again.” <http://www.amazon.com/Rules-Patriots-How-Conservatives-Again/dp/1618689908/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1393178074&sr=8-1&keywords=deace> You can “like” him on Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/stevedeace> or follow him on Twitter @SteveDeaceShow <https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow>.* - See more at: https://www.conservativereview.com/commentary/2015/06/why-jeb-bush-will-never-be-president#sthash.caCt9EZM.dpuf __._,_.___ ------------------------------ Posted by: "Beowulf" <[email protected]> ------------------------------ Visit Your Group <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/info;_ylc=X3oDMTJmOXNuanBoBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzE0MzQ2NzEwNzg-> - New Members <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/members/all;_ylc=X3oDMTJndjZtaHRvBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2bWJycwRzdGltZQMxNDM0NjcxMDc4> 1 [image: Yahoo! 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