Former US Intelligence Chief Mike Flynn on Islamic State's Rise: 'We Were Too Dumb' --- and he thinks he's smarter now. poor feller.
On Tuesday, December 1, 2015 at 6:38:08 AM UTC-6, Travis wrote: > > > > > > > > > > > > > > http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/former-us-intelligence-chief-discusses-development-of-is-a-1065131.html > Ex-US Intelligence Chief on Islamic State's Rise: 'We Were Too Dumb' > > [image: Description: Islamic State fighters in Raqqa, Syria: "The sad fact > is that we have to put troops on the ground. We won't succeed against this > enemy with air strikes alone."] > > *Without the Iraq war, Islamic State wouldn't exist today, former US > special forces chief Mike Flynn openly admits. In an interview, he explains > IS' rise to become a professional force and how the Americans allowed its > future leader to slip out of their hands. * > > Michael Flynn, 56, served in the United States Army for more than 30 > years, most recently as director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, where > he was the nation's highest-ranking military intelligence officer. > Previously, he served as assistant director of national intelligence inside > the Obama administration. From 2004 to 2007, he was stationed in > Afghanistan and Iraq, where, as commander of the US special forces, he > hunted top al-Qaida terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, one of the predecessors > to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who today heads the Islamic State (IS) in Syria > and Iraq. After Flynn's team located Zarqawi's whereabouts, the US killed > the terrorist in an air strike in June 2006. > > In an interview, Flynn explains the rise of the Islamic State and how the > blinding emotions of 9/11 led the United States in the wrong direction > strategically. > ------------------------------ > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE*: In recent weeks, Islamic State not only conducted the > attacks in Paris, but also in Lebanon and against a Russian airplane over > the Sinai Peninsula. What has caused the organization to shift its tactics > and to now operate internationally? > > *Flynn: *There were all kinds of strategic and tactical warnings and lots > of reporting. And even the guys in the Islamic State said that they were > going to attack overseas. I just don't think people took them seriously. > When I first heard about the recent attacks in Paris > <http:///international/europe/paris-attacks-pose-challenge-to-european-security-a-1063435.html>, > > I was like, "Oh, my God, these guys are at it again, and we're not paying > attention." The change that I think we need to be more aware of is that, in > Europe, there is a leadership structure. And there's likely a leader or a > leadership structure in each country in Europe. The same is probably > similar for the United States, but just not obvious yet. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* You mean something like an emir or regional leadership? > > [image: Description: US General Mike Flynn: The Iraq war "was a huge > error."][image: Description: Zoom] > <http:///international/world/bild-1065131-927710.html> > > AP > > US General Mike Flynn: The Iraq war "was a huge error." > > *Flynn:* Exactly. In Osama bin Laden's writings, he elaborated about > being disperse, becoming more diffuse and operating in small elements, > because it's harder to detect and it's easier to act. In Paris, there were > eight guys. In Mali, there were 10. Next time, maybe one or two guys will > be enough. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* Can an attack of that scope even take place without > being coordinated and authorized by the IS leadership in Syria? > > *Flynn:* Absolutely. There's not some line-and-block chart and a guy at > the top like we have in our own systems. That's the mirror imaging that we > have to, in many ways, eliminate from our thinking. I can imagine a > 30-year-old guy with some training and some discussion who receives the > task from the top: "Go forth and do good on behalf of our ideology." And > then he picks the targets by himself, organizes his attackers and executes > his mission. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* Islamic State's leader is the self-proclaimed Caliph > Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. What kind of leader is he? > > *Flynn:* It's really important to differentiate between the way Osama bin > Laden or Ayman al-Zawahiri represent themselves when they come out in > public and how al-Baghdadi represented himself when he declared the > caliphate. Bin Laden and Zawahiri sit in their videos, legs crossed, flag > behind them, and they've got an AK-47 in their laps. They are presenting > themselves as warriors. Baghdadi brought himself to a mosque in Mosul and > spoke from the balcony, like the pope, dressed in appropriate black garb. > He stood there as a holy cleric and proclaimed the Islamic caliphate. That > was a very, very symbolic act. It elevated the fight from this sort of > military, tactical and localized conflict to that of a religious and global > war. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* What would change if al-Baghdadi were killed? > > *Flynn: *We used to say, "We'll just keep killing the leaders, and the > next guy up is not going to be as good." That didn't work out that way > because al-Baghdadi is better than Zarqawi, and Zarqawi was actually better > than bin Laden. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* So killing Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi wouldn't change much? > > *Flynn:* Not at all. He could be dead today, you haven't seen him lately. > I would have much preferred to have captured bin Laden and Zarqawi because > as soon as you kill them, you are actually doing them and their movement a > favor by making them martyrs. Zarqawi was a vicious animal. I would have > preferred to see him live in a cell for the rest of his life. Their logic > is still hard to understand for us in the West. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* What differentiates al-Baghdadi from Zarqawi, who led > al-Qaida in Iraq between 2003 and 2006? > > *Flynn:* Zarqawi tried to bring in foreign fighters, but not in the way > that al-Baghdadi has been able to do. At the peak of Zarqawi's days, they > may have been bringing in 150 a month from a dozen countries. Al-Baghdadi > is bringing in 1,500 fighters a month, from more than 100 nations. He's > using the modern weapons of the information age in fundamentally different > ways to strengthen the attraction of their ideology. The other thing is how > they target. Zarqawi was absolutely brutal -- he randomly killed guys > lining up for jobs in downtown Baghdad. Al-Baghdadi is much smarter and > more precise in his target selection, but still very vicious. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* Who is running the military wing of the Islamic State? > > *Flynn:* I think that al-Baghdadi or the current leader of the Islamic > State is very hands-on when it comes to parts of the military, but it's a > very flat, networked organization. Inside Syria and Iraq in the Levant > area, my belief is that he has a couple of subordinates who are responsible > for military operations, logistical, financial, etc.; they represent a > combination of Egyptians, Saudis, Chechens or a Dagestanis, Americans and > Europeans. We know from debriefings that they have actually broken Raqqa > down into international zones because of language barriers. They have put > interpreters in place in those international zones in order to communicate > and get their messages around. For example, the Australians alone have > about 200 people. There's even an Australian sector in Raqqa, and they're > tied into the other English speakers because not everybody shows up > speaking Arabic. This requires a military-like structure with military-like > leadership. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* How does IS treat people who volunteer? > > *Flynn:* They document everything. These guys are terrific about it. In > their recruiting and in interviews, they ask "What's your background? Are > you good with media? With weapons?" It's this kind of well-structured > capability they have that then evolves into a very, very unconventional > force. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *How should the West fight this enemy? > > *Flynn:* The sad fact is that we have to put troops on the ground. We > won't succeed against this enemy with air strikes alone. But a military > solution is not the end all, be all. The overall strategy must be to take > away Islamic State's territory, then bring security and stability to > facilitate the return of the refugees. This won't be possible quickly. > First, we need to hunt down and eliminate the complete leadership of IS, > break apart their networks, stop their financing operations and stay until > a sense of normality has been established. It's certainly not a question of > months -- it will take years. Just look back at the mission we created in > the Balkans as a model. We started there in the early 1990s to create some > stability and we are still there today. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE:* Is the Balkans mission a model for the current war? > > *Flynn:* We can learn some lessons from the Balkans. Strategically, I > envision a breakup of the Middle East crisis area into sectors in the way > we did back then, with certain nations taking responsibility for these > sectors. In addition, we would need a coalition military command structure > and, on a political level, the United Nations must be involved. The United > States could take one sector, Russia as well and the Europeans another one. > The Arabs must be involved in that sort of military operation, as well, and > must be part of every sector. With this model, you would have opportunities > -- Russia, for example, must use its influence on Iran to have Tehran back > out of Syria and other proxy efforts in the region. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *For that to happen, the West would have to cooperate > fully with the Russians. > > *Flynn:* We have to work constructively with Russia. Whether we like it > or not, Russia made a decision to be there (in Syria) and to act > militarily. They are there, and this has dramatically changed the dynamic. > So you can't say Russia is bad, they have to go home. It's not going to > happen. Get real. Look at what happened in the past few days: The president > of France asked the US for help militarily (after the Paris attacks). > That's really weird to me, as an American. We should have been there first > and offered support. Now he is flying to Moscow and asking Putin for help. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *A Western military intervention runs the risk of being > seen as a new attempt to invade the region. > > *Flynn:* That's why we need the Arabs as partners, they must be the face > of the mission -- but, today, they are neither capable of conducting nor > leading this type of operation, only the United States can do this. And we > don't want to invade or even own Syria. Our message must be that we want to > help and that we will leave once the problems have been solved. The Arab > nations must be on our side. And if we catch them financing, if they funnel > money to IS, that's when sanctions and other actions have to kick in. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *In February 2004, you already had Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi > in your hands -- he was imprisoned in in a military camp, but got cleared > later as harmless by a US military commission. How could that fatal mistake > happen? > > *Flynn:* We were too dumb. We didn't understand who we had there at that > moment. When 9/11 occurred, all the emotions took over, and our response > was, "Where did those bastards come from? Let's go kill them. Let's go get > them." Instead of asking why they attacked us, we asked where they came > from. Then we strategically marched in the wrong direction. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *The US invaded Iraq even though Saddam Hussein had > nothing to do with 9/11. > > *Flynn:* First we went to Afghanistan, where al-Qaida was based. Then we > went into Iraq. Instead of asking ourselves why the phenomenon of terror > occurred, we were looking for locations. This is a major lesson we must > learn in order not to make the same mistakes again. > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *The Islamic State wouldn't be where it is now without > the fall of Baghdad. Do you regret ... > > *Flynn: *... yes, absolutely ... > > *SPIEGEL ONLINE: *... the Iraq war? > > *Flynn:* It was huge error. As brutal as Saddam Hussein was, it was a > mistake to just eliminate him. The same is true for Moammar Gadhafi and for > Libya, which is now a failed state. The historic lesson is that it was a > strategic failure to go into Iraq. History will not be and should not be > kind with that decision. > > > > > > > __._,_.___ > ------------------------------ > Posted by: "Beowulf" <[email protected] <javascript:>> > ------------------------------ > > > Visit Your Group > <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/info;_ylc=X3oDMTJmMHZwOWZnBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2Z2hwBHN0aW1lAzE0NDg5Mjc4NTA-> > > > - New Members > > <https://groups.yahoo.com/neo/groups/grendelreport/members/all;_ylc=X3oDMTJnYXNoMjNtBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIwMTk0ODA2BGdycHNwSWQDMTcwNTMyMzY2NwRzZWMDdnRsBHNsawN2bWJycwRzdGltZQMxNDQ4OTI3ODUw> > > 1 > > [image: Yahoo! 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