https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/campaigns-
elections/hillary-clinotn-democrats-downfall/
Downfall

Oct. 28, 2016

[image: Hillary Clinton]
<https://www.commentarymagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/hillary-clinton-cornered.jpg>AP
Photo/Andrew Harnik

Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party were already having a terrible
week when the FBI dropped a bombshell.

“In connection with an unrelated case, the FBI has learned of the existence
of emails that appear to be pertinent to the investigation” into Clinton’s
email server, read a statement from FBI Director James Comey released to
Congress. “I agreed that the FBI should take appropriate investigative
steps designed to allow investigators to review these emails to determine
whether they contain classified information, as well as to assess their
importance to our investigation.”

What followed was chaos as the political world digested the implications of
the inexplicably vague indication that the federal criminal investigation
into Clinton’s conduct, declared defunct by Comey in July, had been
reactivated.

In the following hours, reporters with sources inside the FBI clarified
that the investigators discovered emails with sensitive information that
may have been gleaned from Clinton’s server but did not come directly from
the former first lady. They were not emails that Clinton, her campaign, or
the State Department had withheld—indicating that what Comey described as
“careless” behavior from Clinton had been worse than previously known.
These emails were not obtained as a result of the WikiLeaks hacks of John
Podesta’s accounts or the Russian infiltration of Democratic committee
servers. It was almost worse than that. The *New York Times
<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/us/politics/fbi-hillary-clinton-email.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur>*
revealed that, in investigating the mobile devices of former Congressman
Anthony Weiner and his wife, Hillary Clinton aide Huma Abedin, the FBI
might have found information that could have been sensitive enough to
classify.

This is politically deadly. It reminds the public of Clinton’s recklessness
conduct in service to her sense of “convenience,” a story that has sapped
her of credibility among voters. If information that could even be
construed as potentially classified found its way onto either Abedin or
Weiner’s email accounts, it expands the scope of Clinton’s potential
carelessness. Finally, it jogs the public’s memory about the grotesque
figure that is former Congressman Weiner. The only reason the FBI is
probing the former congressman’s devices is the allegation
<http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3790824/Anthony-Weiner-carried-months-long-online-sexual-relationship-troubled-15-year-old-girl-telling-hard-asking-dress-school-girl-outfits-pressing-engage-rape-fantasies.html>
that he exchanged explicit messages with an underage girl. Worse, it’s
unlikely that this new investigation will be closed before the election.
These new allegations will just hang in the air for ten days, tainting the
race and coloring voters’ opinions of Clinton’s conduct and the party she
leads.

It’s hard to imagine a worse time for this to have dropped on Democratic
heads. It comes amid a drumbeat of releases of information regarding
the “Clinton
Inc
<https://www.commentarymagazine.com/politics-ideas/the-company-hillary-clinton-keeps/>.,”
an admitted apparatus designed to enrich Bill Clinton through his work at
the Clinton Foundation. It occurs following a week of deadly revelations
regarding the Affordable Care Act’s premiums spiking. And because the case
now involves the lurid details of Wiener’s depraved sexual appetites, which
media cannot resist. There is probably no way to derail the story before
the weekend, ensuring that Clinton’s team will spend the Sunday morning
news programs playing defense.

Does this wreck Hillary Clinton’s electoral prospects? It’s entirely
possible that these new revelations, which are for the most part just
reminders of old revelations, will remind the public why they dislike
Hillary Clinton. The exodus from her side could be so great that it
entirely reverses a four-to-six-point advantage in national polls, swinging
at least 270 Electoral College votes to Donald Trump. That is, however,
still a high hill to climb. Clinton has benefited from an enthusiasm edge
<http://herald-review.com/news/national/ap-gfk-poll-clinton-advantage-fueled-by-growing-enthusiasm/article_c5a181f1-5ef9-5934-b0ac-e5a40df82b51.html>
following the release of a toxic candid videotape featuring Donald Trump
talking about his love for sexual assault and adultery in 2005. Early
voting has begun. Over 15 million votes have already been cast. In the
crucial swing state of North Carolina alone, Democrats have an 18-point
advantage <https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792014405408067584> in the
early vote. The numbers
<http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-28/clinton-counting-on-swing-state-advantage-through-early-voting>
for Democrats are equally promising in places like Colorado and Florida,
although Republicans have an advantage in Ohio and Iowa. A uniform swing on
Election Day against Clinton could overcome these numbers and deliver the
election to Trump, but his razor-thin margin of error hasn’t changed. He
has a needle to thread and no track record displaying the message
discipline necessary for him to thread it.

Yet this awful week of news–culminating in today’s earth-shattering
disclosures from the FBI–could have a much more significant impact on the
GOP’s down-ballot races, many of which were already tighter contests than
the presidential race. Republican incumbents could benefit
disproportionately from swing voters turning against Clinton, even if these
new details do not fatally undermine her electoral prospects. If, however,
Clinton survives and is inaugurated, she will face a hostile political
climate like no newly elected president has faced in decades. Whereas Trump
could rebrand the GOP as a progressive and xenophobic party with little
appeal to the upcoming generation, Clinton could have as deleterious an
effect on the Democratic Party’s brand over the course of four years of
scandals, investigations, and tawdry allegations. Perhaps Democrats should
be cautious about what they wish for.



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