GM's Skid Quickens as Crunch Raises Bankruptcy Threat

By Mike Ramsey

 Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., burning cash as U.S.
sales slide, is being pushed closer to bankruptcy as it waits to learn
whether the auto industry will win a new round of government loans.

The shares slid for a fifth day on concern the biggest U.S. automaker
won't have enough cash to make it through the end of the year. Only
federal aid could prevent a collapse, and reorganizing in court may
not be possible because the credit crunch has dried up financing,
analysts said.

``Strategic bankruptcy is not an option for GM,'' said Mark Oline, a
credit analyst with Fitch Inc. in Chicago. ``This is an issue of
operating or not operating.''

The prospect of a forced liquidation raises the stakes for GM's quest
for new federal borrowing after saying on Nov. 7 it may run out of
operating cash as soon as year's end. GM had $16.2 billion on hand as
of Sept. 30, down from $21 billion at the end of June, and needs $11
billion to pay its monthly bills.

GM is canceling press events set for next week at the Los Angeles Auto
Show to focus instead on discussing new models at the North American
International Auto Show in Detroit in January, a spokesman, Scott
Fosgard, said today.

`Unimaginable'

``A bankruptcy wouldn't address our immediate liquidity concerns,''
said Renee Rashid-Merem, a spokeswoman for Detroit- based GM. ``It's
not an option for GM because it creates more problems than it
solves.''

Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner said GM's U.S. sales ``would be
devastated'' by a bankruptcy filing. Deliveries fell 21 percent last
quarter and 45 percent in October. The ``unimaginable consequence'' of
a bankruptcy ``motivates us to really come up with cash in every way
possible,'' Wagoner said in a Nov. 7 Bloomberg Television interview.

Investors may be concluding that GM won't succeed. The shares slid 43
cents, or 13 percent, to $2.93 at 1:30 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange
composite trading, chopping their value almost in half in the past
week. Deutsche Bank AG said yesterday the stock may be worthless in a
year.

The U.S. bond market is closed today for the Veterans Day holiday.
GM's 8.375 percent bond due in July 2033 rose 1.75 cents yesterday to
25.75 cents on the dollar, according to Trace, the bond-price
reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The
bond yielded 32.5 percent.

GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC have asked for $50 billion in aid
to weather the worst auto market in 17 years, people familiar with the
discussions said. That would be in addition to $25 billion approved in
September to help retool plants to build more fuel-efficient
vehicles.

White House View

President George W. Bush would consider ``ideas on accelerating''
federal loans to the automakers, though borrowings under the $700
billion bank-rescue plan have gone ``as far as they can,'' a White
House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, told reporters traveling with Bush in
New York.

She denied a New York Times report that Bush linked auto- industry
assistance to a free-trade agreement with Colombia when he met
yesterday with President-elect Barack Obama at the White House.
``There was no linkage,'' Perino said.

The White House signaled its opposition yesterday to a proposal by
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid of Nevada for Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson to tap the
bank-rescue package.

Democrats' View

Democratic lawmakers reject Paulson's arguments that he lacks
authority to do so, Senator Carl Levin of Michigan said yesterday in
an interview.

Should Paulson continue to resist using funds from the financial
bailout approach, Congress would craft language to help the automakers
and add it to the stimulus plan to be considered next week, Levin
said. Treasury spokeswoman Brookly McLaughlin referred questions to
the White House.

GM is cutting jobs and shutting plants after almost $73 billion in
losses since the end of 2004. U.S. sales were hammered this year by
gasoline prices that peaked at $4.11 a gallon in July, damping demand
for light trucks, then crimped further when the credit freeze curbed
buyers' access to loans.

Wagoner, 55, told trade publication Automotive News that GM needs an
aid package before Obama takes office in January. The automaker had
about $43 billion in debt at the end of 2007, according to a
regulatory filing.

Default Risk

Credit-default swaps protecting against a GM default for one year rose
yesterday to a level that implies the market has priced in a more than
71 percent chance of default, according to CMA Datavision.

One-year credit-default swaps were quoted at a mid-price of 55.5
percentage points upfront, compared with 51 percentage points on Nov.
7, CMA data show. That means it would cost $5.55 million initially in
addition to $500,000 over one year to protect $10 million of GM
bonds.

Bill Ackman, manager of the Pershing Square Capital Management LP
hedge fund in New York, said GM shouldn't take government money
because ``it has been hamstrung for years because it has too much debt
and it has contracts that are uneconomic.''

Ackman, who said he doesn't have a position in GM securities, said
yesterday on the Charlie Rose show the automaker should file for a so-
called prepackaged bankruptcy with financing to keep operating while
in court protection.

That may be difficult. Such debtor-in-possession loans have ``all but
shut down,'' CreditSights Inc. said yesterday in a report. The loans,
which are paid off when companies exit bankruptcy, aren't being made
as lenders become more averse to risk, wrote Chris Taggert, a New York-
based analyst.

GM would have no choice but to shut down, said Maryann Keller, an
independent auto analyst and consultant based in Greenwich,
Connecticut. A GM failure that stops production would cost 2.5 million
jobs in the U.S. in the first year, according to the Ann Arbor,
Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research.

``In this world, you don't go Chapter 11 reorganization,'' Keller said
in an interview. ``You go Chapter 7 liquidation.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Ramsey in Southfield,
Michigan, at [EMAIL PROTECTED]

Last Updated: November 11, 2008 13:34 EST
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