" look for Obama to pursue a radical, socialist agenda that will bring America into conformity with the government domination of health care and the economy... " God i sure hope he dose exactly that ! On Dec 17, 9:48 am, Travis <[email protected]> wrote: > From: Travis > > From: Dick Morris * > > December 16, 2008 > > 2009: A PREDICTION* > > The politics of 2009 will be dominated by a continuation and deepening of > the global Depression. Under the guise of stimulating the economy, look for > Obama to pursue a radical, socialist agenda that will bring America into > conformity with the government domination of health care and the economy > that prevails in the European Union. When the dust clears, the economy will > still be in the tank. The new president's stimulation packages will do > little or nothing to abate the depression, but they will transform American > life and politics. For his part, Obama will take advantage of his built-in > majorities in Congress to pass his agenda, but will suffer rapidly dropping > ratings. By the end of the year, he will be as radioactive as Bush is today. > > Here's a detailed look at what I think will happen at home and abroad during > the coming year. > > *The Economy* To get a hand le on what is happening to the global economy, > consider these basic facts: In the mid 1980s, the total amount of debt in > the world – all debt including consumer, corporate, and public from all > countries, companies and people on the planet – equaled the global GDP. We > humans owed one year's income. Now, the planet's GDP is slightly above $50 > trillion and the total planetary debt is up over $180 trillion! We now owe > almost four years' income. (Source: A fabulous book by Charles Morris -- no > relation – entitled the *Trillion Dollar Meltdown*. Published in Feb.,2008, > it predicts much of what has happened since). > > The prosperity of the past fifteen years has been largely based on debt. > Drawing on credit cards, inflated home values, negative interest policies at > the Federal Reserve, and a global willingness to subsidize American > indebtedness, we borrowed our way to wealth. But now the house of cards is > collapsing all around us and won't stop doing so until we are free of the > debt addiction, several years hence. > > The process Schumpeter called "creative destruction" now has to run its > capitalist course, putting inefficient companies out of business and forcing > people to live within their means. It will be a difficult and prolonged > process. > > But it won't be as bad as the Great Depression. Between 1929 and 1933, > America lost a third of its GDP and unemployment topped 20%. That won't > happen now because the governments of the world are willing to douse the > economic conflagrations with streams of money. Obama's, Japan's, China's and > Europe's stimulus packages are really pain killers – methadone – as we go > through the process of kicking the debt habit. They assure that we won't be > racked by the destabilizing agony of massive depression. But they won't do > much to cure the underlying ailment. The cure has to come from the normal > workings of the capitalist system. Creative destruct ion made easier to bear > by government welfare. > > Obama's stimulus legislation will increasingly be seen by Americans as a bad > joke and his predictions of job creation will ring increasingly hollow. > > At first the new president will try demand-side stimulus through public > works construction. But it won't work. He will identify public projects that > need doing and fund them. Important endeavors like repair of public school > buildings, the development of alternative energy generation sources, and the > renovation and replacement of our failing national infrastructure of bridges > and roads will all get massive infusions of federal funds. While these > projects are deserving in their own rights, they won't do much to alleviate > the depression. Only about a quarter of the funds will actually be spent in > the fiscal year in which they are appropriated, the average for federal > public works. It takes time to plan, design, and scope out the projects and > three-quar ters of the spending will not take place until subsequent years. > And, of the spending that takes place, most of it will be used by the > workers who get the paychecks to pay down their debts and will do nothing to > stimulate the economy. Terrified by the collapsing economy around them, > consumers won't embark on bold new purchases, but will use any increase in > pay to reduce their student loans, credit card debt, pay off their car > loans, or just pay that month's bills. The result? No stimulus. > > Next Obama will forget about funding just important new projects. He'll just > pass out money. But even direct checks to people won't do much to help > revive purchasing power. As noted, people will just pay down bills with the > money. It is estimated that 80% of the Bush stimulus package of earlier this > year went to debt reduction, not new spending. In 2009, with mounting terror > over the economy, it will be even higher. > > Finally, Obama's centrist economic team, despi te the president's > predilections, will try supply side stimulation. He will cut business taxes, > increase R & D tax credits, and might even cut capital gains taxes. He will > get desperate as the economy gets worse and he'll begin to try anything. > But, as President Eisenhower noted, "you can't push a string." Giving rich > people and businesses money to spend won't result in new plant and equipment > or new services. Scared to death by the bad economic environment, they won't > spend the money constructively either and there will be little real > stimulus. > > The result of all this will be that the economic numbers and Obama's > popularity will sink in sync with one another and he will lose more and more > of his real political power. > > *Socialism Comes To America* Charles Krauthammer has it about right. Obama > has named a largely centrist team to supervise economic and foreign policy > to pacify these turbulent areas of public policy so he can get on with > passing his basi c leftist agenda. But while Obama struggles with a failing > economy, he will use the need for stimulus as an excuse to move ahead with > the conversion of the American economy to a European Union model of social > democracy. He will use the $750 billion bailout voted this year by Congress > as a pretext to demand equity in America's major businesses. And then he > will use that equity to demand "reform." At first the "reforms" will be > obvious: limitations on executive compensation and bonuses, investment in > environmentally friendly technology, and other socially worthy objectives. > But Obama will use economic populism to justify greater and greater > government de facto control over the financial and insurance sectors. He > will, for example, move to curtail financing of outsourcing or offshore > business operations. He may penalize companies for layoffs by withholding > bank loans. He may embrace some of the more intrusive programs for > manipulation of the economy. The heavy hand of government "guidance" will > come to corporate America. > > Remember that half of FDR's program was designed to combat the Depression – > Agricultural Adjustment, the National Industrial Recovery Act, the Public > Works Administration, the Works Progress Administration – but half had > nothing to do with recovery but was sold under the rubric of "reform." These > measures included Social Security, the SEC, and the Wagner Act, all of which > totally transformed the level of government intervention in the economy. > Obama will follow that model, advancing programs that change our basic > relationship of government and business disguised as measures to fight the > Depression. > > But nowhere will the transformation be as great as in health care. > Manipulating the national consensus that we must make health care a "right" > and move to cover the 47 million uninsured "Americans" (even though about > 7-10 million are illegal immigrants), Obama will fundamentally transform our > health care system into one subject to government control. He has to. He > can't extend health care coverage from 250 million people to 300 million > with no increase in the supply of doctors, nurses, and hospitals without > introducing rationing. While he may use private health insurance companies > and HMOs as his capos to enforce the rationing, the demand and impetus for > the controls on utilization will come from Washington. As a practical > matter, this change will revive the idea that the elderly have a "duty to > die" as first articulated by former Colorado Governor Dick Lamm. Elderly > Americans will find that they cannot have heart bypass operations or get MRI > exams or CT scans even if they are willing to pay for it themselves. We will > come to emulate the British or Canadian model of health care under > government control. (For a fuller discussion of the changes he will bring to > health care, see our book Fleeced). > > So do the math. Right now, the federal government's spending accounts for > about 20% of our national GDP and State and local government, exclusive of > federal aid, adds another 12%. Their 32% share of our economy is about the > same level as in Japan but markedly lower than in the United Kingdom (41%), > France and Germany (about 48%). Other countries, like Sweden are even > higher. > > When the bailouts have run their course, it is not illogical to assume that > the government or the "taxpayers" as Obama likes to call them, will own > about 1/3 of the equity in banks and major insurance companies. The > financial sector accounts for about 20% of our GDP, so that is about 6% that > moves to the public sector (and, of course, the remainder, while still > private, is subject to massive government influence due to the large public > share). Health care consumes about 16% of our GDP and it is about 40% public > at the moment. Under Obama, while not a single payer system, government will > effectively control the whole health care sector th ough mandates and > rationing. So add another 10% to the public sector. And there you have it: > about 48% government control, just like in Europe. > > *Permanent Political Shifts* Obama will use his heavy majorities in Congress > to act on four fronts to try to assure a permanent Democratic majority in > the country. > > a) He will pass the union card voting law which will ... > > read more » --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum
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