Globalization in agriculture is a failure. STalin and the Russian people learned the hard way that it is the independant farmer that owns his/her own land that will be the best producer of grain. Unfortunately in the Americas, that is their undoing... the more efficient they are, the lower the price even when the price to the consumer is rising. At the same time employees and corporations do a very poor job of maintaining the fertility of the soil.... much is heading for the Gulf of Mexico. At the same time as the world's population is doubling frequently. Local growers and processors throughout the world need to be encouraged, and supported. If not by government, at least by those who want to eat a nutritious diet. It may be more expensive in the short run, but as long as land is maintained for agricultural purposes, people will have a hope for survival. or even prosperity.
On Jan 12, 7:08 am, "florida mike !" <[email protected]> wrote: > Billions Face Food Shortages, Study Warns > > http://www.truthout.org/011109A > > Climate change may ruin farming in tropics by 2100. Record > temperatures to become normal in Europe. > > Half of the world's population could face severe food shortages > by > the end of the century as rising temperatures take their toll on > farmers' crops, scientists have warned. > > Harvests of staple food crops such as rice and maize could fall > by > between 20% and 40% as a result of higher temperatures during the > growing season in the tropics and subtropics. Warmer temperatures in > the region are also expected to increase the risk of drought, cutting > crop losses further, according to a new study. > > The worst of the food shortages are expected to hit the poor, > densely inhabited regions of the equatorial belt, where demand for > food is already soaring because of a rapid growth in population. > > A study in the US journal Science found there was a 90% chance > that by the end of the century, the coolest temperatures in the > tropics during the crop growing season would exceed the hottest > temperatures recorded between 1900 and 2006. > > More temperate regions such as Europe could expect to see > previous > record temperatures become the norm by 2100. > > "The stress on global food production from temperatures alone is > going to be huge, and that doesn't take into account water supplies > stressed by the higher temperatures," said David Battisti, at the > University of Washington, who led the study. > > Battisti and Rosamond Naylor, at Stanford University in > California, combined climate models from the Intergovernmental Panel > on Climate Change (IPCC) and historical examples of the impact of > heatwaves on agriculture, and found severe food shortages were likely > to become more common. > > Among the periods they examined was the record heatwave across > western Europe in 2003, which killed an estimated 52,000 people and > also cut yields of wheat and fodder by a third. In 1972, a prolonged > hot summer in south-east Ukraine and south-west Russia saw > temperatures rise by between 2C and 4C above the norm, driving down > wheat and coarse grain yields for the whole of the USSR by 13%. The > disruption affected the global cereal market for two years. > > Naylor, who is director of food security and the environment at > Stanford, said the study emphasised the need for countries to invest > in adapting to a changing climate. To develop new crops to withstand > higher temperatures could take decades, she added. > > "When we looked at our historical examples there were ways to > address the problem within a given year," Naylor said. "People could > always turn somewhere else to find food. But in the future there's > not > going to be any place to turn unless we rethink our food supplies." > > The tropics and subtropics, which stretch from the southern US to > northern Argentina and southern Brazil, from northern India and > southern China to southern Australia, and cover all of Africa, are > currently home to 3 billion people. Future temperature rises are > expected to have a greater impact in the tropics because the crops > grown there are less resilient to changes in climate. > > According to the study, many local populations now live on less > than £1.30 a day and depend on agriculture. The need for food is due > to become more urgent as populations are expected to nearly double by > the end of the century. > > "When all the signs point in the same direction, and in this case > it's a bad direction, you pretty much know what's going to happen," > Battisti said. "You're talking about hundreds of millions of > additional people looking for food because they won't be able to find > it where they find it now. > > "You can let it happen and painfully adapt, or you can plan for > it. You could also mitigate [climate change] and not let it happen in > the first place, but we're not doing a very good job of that." > > Naylor added: "We have to be rethinking agriculture systems as a > whole, not only thinking about new varieties [of crops], but also > recognising that many people will just move out of agriculture, and > even move from the lands where they live now." > > In many countries, a combination of poor farming practices and > deforestation, exacerbated by climate change, may steadily degrade > soil fertility, leaving vast areas unsuitable for crops or grazing. > In > 2007, scientists warned that poor soil fertility meant a global food > crisis was likely in the next half-century. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. 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