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    Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor said, "Unfortunately, the state's economic and revenue outlook continues to deteriorate." But he added that the new budget contains a $2.1 billion reserve, which could cut the projected deficit to about $6 billion.

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  • Friday's projection of a continuing state budget crisis is linked to the faltering economy. Here are examples from the Department of Finance's February bulletin.

    56.3%

    Drop in residential building permits from January 2008.

    79,300

    Jobs the state lost in January, the ninth consecutive month of declining employment

    $898 million

    Amount (about 13.9%) that state revenue collections in February fell below what was forecast in the just-completed budget deal

    42.1%

    Drop in total construction permits in January
Popular Comment
I am sure Steinberg is sincere about hearing ideas from everyone and wasn't playing politics by inviting Poizner and Whitman. Okay we need a venue to submit ideas to solve the budget crisis. I'll kick it off with a few ideas: 1. Make the legislators and their staff unpaid volunteers. 2. Cut the legislators $2500/Month office budget to $250/Month 3. Cancel the EDD telephone voice message contract and mandate employers to submit unemployment paperwork to EDD when they layoff workers. 4. Eliminate all boards and commissions & transfer functions to departments; fire the executives. 5. Restructure government to a minimum 10:1 management span of control: 10 employees for every 1 manager. 6. Eliminate specialist classifications within State management/supervision ranks. 7. Go Microsoft. Standardize on Microsoft products for State computers and email. 8. Infuse quality and efficiency improvement processes in government. I have tons more but we need a place to categorize & post the ideas.

-- CAW916

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Capitol and California
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New California budget faces $8 billion hole, analyst says

Published: Saturday, Mar. 14, 2009 - 12:00 am | Page 1A

With the economy plunging, California's new state budget is headed toward a multibillion-dollar hole just weeks after its passage, the Legislature's nonpartisan fiscal analyst said Friday.

State revenues will be $8 billion lower than expected next fiscal year because of economic problems ranging from rising unemployment to falling consumer spending, Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor projected.

"Unfortunately, the state's economic and revenue outlook continues to deteriorate," Taylor said in a 28-page report.

The development marks the second time in less than six months that bitter legislative clashes produced spending plans that immediately were threatened by the nation's deep recession.

The $8 billion hole would worsen by $6 billion if voters reject ballot measures May 19 to shift special funds and borrow against future California Lottery profits to generate money for state operations, Taylor said.

The gloomy forecast raises the specter of Democrats and Republicans renewing their vicious three-month fight over raising taxes or cutting services to balance spending.

Californians already face $12.5 billion in temporary tax hikes under the budget signed last month by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. Sales and income taxes will rise, as will the state's vehicle license fee.

Taylor's report said he is "extremely reluctant to recommend that the state raise any more tax rates" in coming months.

The LAO forecast, based on months of additional economic data than were used to craft the state budget, predicts no recovery until the first quarter of 2010 and slow growth thereafter.

Nationally, the economy is grappling with a falling gross domestic product, large-scale layoffs, a drop-off in foreign trade and the near collapse of financial and credit markets, Taylor said.

"The economic situation in California is similar," Taylor's report said, noting declines in employment, housing prices and car sales.

State revenues were $898 million below projections in February and are $333 million below expectations for the current fiscal year, said H.D. Palmer, spokesman for Schwarzenegger's Department of Finance.

Legislative leaders, in written statements, reacted cautiously Friday to Taylor's prediction.

Senate President Pro Tem Darrell Steinberg, D-Sacramento, said he is not surprised that the nation's rocky economy threatens California but that the budget signed in February "makes what we face more manageable."

Steinberg invited two potential GOP gubernatorial candidates who have ripped the budget passed last month – state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner and Meg Whitman, former eBay chief – to present their own proposals.

"We need their list of cuts and savings," Steinberg said.

Republican legislative leaders sent a strong message for paring the budget gap: job creation and spending reductions – not tax hikes.

"We can't go back to the taxpayers again to ask them to fix the problem," said Senate Republican leader Dennis Hollingsworth of Murrieta.

"(Taylor's) report echoes what Republicans have been saying all along – that economic recovery and job creation must continue to be an important priority," said Assembly GOP leader Mike Villines of Clovis.

Assembly Speaker Karen Bass, D-Los Angeles, urged legislators to work together, saying "all of us, Democrats and Republicans alike, must be prepared to continue to make tough decisions."

Assemblywoman Noreen Evans, a Santa Rosa Democrat who chairs the Assembly Budget Committee, said it is too soon to dismiss tax increases as a possibility.

"We're in uncharted waters here," she said. "I don't think we can rule anything out."

Taylor said the budget signed last month included a $2.1 billion reserve, which could reduce the projected $8 billion revenue hole to about $6 billion.

To cut the gap further, he suggested using about $3 billion in federal stimulus funds designed to bolster schools at all levels – from elementary to colleges – over the next three years.

State finance officials said privately Friday that they are seeking guidance from the federal government because they are not sure the stimulus funds can be used to fill a newly forming shortfall.

Schools already were counting on the federal funds for a more immediate purpose, easing billions in cuts necessitated by last month's budget deal, said Hilary McLean, spokeswoman for state Superintendent of Public Instruction Jack O'Connell.

"To say that's suddenly going to be used to backfill further cuts would be a major blow to schools that already are on their knees with the cuts that have been made," McLean said.

Even before Taylor's new forecast, public schools and community colleges were projecting about $5 billion in program cuts through June 2010.

Kevin Gordon, veteran education lobbyist, said there is "going to be a fight" if lawmakers try to "hijack" the stimulus funds.

"We're simply not going to be able to compete in the nation or in a global economy if they keep picking at schools to solve their budget problem," Gordon said.


Call Jim Sanders, Bee Capitol Bureau, (916) 326-5538.

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