*All Benefits, No Costs? *That's how Washington state's governor, Chris
Gregoire, describes her proposals to reduce greenhouse gases
<http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2008995804_opina07gregoire.html>.
By acting now, we will declare our energy independence and create
job growth that the world will envy. When this recession ends,
Washington must be ready to take new, bold steps to address climate
change. We can't let fear drive us into inaction that we and future
generations will regret.
President Obama is already working with Congress to develop a
national cap-and-trade program for greenhouse gases --- a most
effective and efficient way to reduce harmful emissions.
By enacting a strong bill now, Washington will be positioned to
influence the national discussion on climate change, and protect our
state's vital interests --- which include our natural resources, our
businesses and jobs.
Last year, Washingtonians sent $16 billion overseas to buy fossil
fuels. Instead, we can invest those dollars in Washington jobs,
clean energy, businesses and families. Every $1 billion that
Washington residents spend here generates 6,300 jobs.
You can search her entire column without finding a single mention of the
costs for her proposals.
(Washington taxpayers, who have watched her bring the state close to
bankruptcy, may not be surprised that Gregoire has nothing to say, at
least nothing she wants to say publicly, about costs.)
She does mention costs indirectly, when she backs a cap-and-trade
program. Any such program that actually reduced greenhouse gases would
have to do so by raising energy prices, imposing a heavy tax on all of
us. The tax would be regressive, hitting the poor, especially the rural
poor, harder than the rich, especially the urban rich. (For some
examples of how higher energy prices hit the rural poor hard, see this
New York Times article
<http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?_r=2&scp=3&sq=TCHULA&st=cse&oref=slogin>.)
Avoiding, except in that indirect way, any mention of costs is
dishonest, because Gregoire is not telling us the whole truth.
(Assuming, for the sake of the argument, that she is right about the
benefits.) I can't see into her mind, so I don't know why she omitted
costs. It may be that she, like many other politicians, just wants to
sell a program, and so prefers to avoid the negatives. But it may also
be that she has never really thought about the fundamental question:
Are the benefits from her proposals greater than the costs?
Bjorn Lomborg agrees with Gregoire that greenhouse gases will have many
negative effects. But he is willing, unlike the governor, to examine
the costs of proposals like hers, openly. And when he does, he comes to
a very unfashionable conclusion
<http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/25/opinion/25lomborg.html?scp=1&sq=Lomborg&st=cse>:
If the Kyoto agreement were fully obeyed through 2099, it would cut
temperatures by only 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit. Each dollar would do
only about 30 cents worth of good.
For the sake of Governor Gregoire, I will add this point: An investment
that returns 30 cents for each dollar spent is a bad investment.
Lomborg favors (as do I, though I disagree with him on other matters)
more research instead of expensive efforts to cut emissions.
Lomborg may be wrong in his analysis. He is almost certainly wrong in
his exact numbers, simply because both costs and benefits are so hard to
estimate. But he is right to ask that fundamental question, and
Gregoire wrong to avoid it. (So wrong, in my humble opinion, that the
Seattle Times should not have published her op-ed, at least not without
a rejoinder on the same page.)
Cross posted at Sound Politics <http://soundpolitics.com/>.
(As usual when I mention global warming, I urge you to read my
disclaimer
<http://www.seanet.com/%7Ejimxc/Politics/Site_Answers.html#ans4>, if you
have not already done so.)
- 2:48 PM, 27 April 2009
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