NEW YORK (AP) -- In addition to raising
energy
prices, the climate legislation that's winding through Congress would
create a parallel financial system with a carbon-based currency.
The
House on Friday narrowly passed landmark legislation meant to curb
greenhouse gas emissions and create an energy-efficient economy, voting
219-212. President Barack Obama on Saturday urged senators to follow
suit.
Everyone from small farmers to nuclear
energy companies would be forced to re-evaluate their place in the new
order. Power plants, factories and refineries would feel the first
impact if the federal government moves ahead with plans to cut
greenhouse gas emissions by 17 percent from 2005 levels by 2020 and by
about 80 percent near the end of the century.
The
sharply debated bill's fate is unclear in the Senate. A major struggle
is expected with 60 votes needed to overcome a certain Republican
filibuster.
How much it will affect other
industries is still a matter of intense debate, though the primary
winners and losers are already emerging.
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The Winners:
Solar,
wind, geothermal and other renewable energy companies, including
nuclear, are some of the obvious winners in a carbon economy.
In
addition to the billions of federal stimulus dollars they expect to
receive, those industries can expect to see a huge boost in investment
as utilities and power companies are forced to cut their carbon
emissions. Companies like Florida Power & Light Co., Arizona Public
Service, Southern California Edison and others are already investing in
solar farms and other renewable energy projects, and they'll likely
spend even more to increase the mix of carbon-neutral energy sources.
Farmers
also will find new ways to make money in a carbon economy. Carbon
consultants like the International Carbon Bank & Exchange in
Florida see huge potential in agriculture for managing carbon
emissions. Farmers that till their soil differently or apply new
environmental techniques can get money by cooperating with a polluter
as a carbon "offset."
Owners of large tracts
of forest land also will get a lot of interest from the business
community. Like farmers, environmental experts see them as a huge
player in the carbon economy because of their natural ability to absorb
carbon.
Louis Blumberg, director of climate
change for the Nature Conservancy's California chapter, envisions a
system in which forest owners could make money simply by signing an
agreement to cut down fewer trees for lumber.
The
Nature Conservancy did just that last year with the Conservation Fund,
a nonprofit agency that owns about 24,000 acres of redwood and douglas
fir forest northwest of San Francisco. The groups changed the logging
schedule on the property, and the fund expects to receive about $2
million from Pacific Gas and Electric, which participates in a regional
climate initiative similar to the one that the Waxman-Markey bill would
create around the country.
"This is really a
model of what can happen," Blumberg said. "Property owners everywhere
want to figure out a way to be part of this."
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The Losers:
Anyone
who pays an electric bill would likely feel the impact of climate
legislation. Utilities will try to raise rates as they invest in
cleaner-yet-more-expensive energy sources. Some have already announced
plans to do so. Petroleum companies also may try to import more of
their refined gas and heating oil from countries with no carbon law,
which will raise costs.
The nonpartisan
Congressional Budget Office and the Environmental Protection Agency
both issued estimates of how the climate bill would affect energy costs.
The CBO estimated the cost at $175 a year
for the average household. The EPA forecasts $80 to $110 a year.
The American Petroleum Institute disputed
both estimates, saying the bill could cost the average household up to
$3,300 by 2020.
"That
is more than a few postage stamps," API President Jack Gerard said in a
slap at Rep. Edward Markey, D-Mass. Markey has compared new energy
costs to a postage stamp per day.
API has tried to paint the bill as a job
killer that would choke off efforts to pull the economy out of
recession.
"While
we support creating new jobs, the legislation offers an unnecessary and
false choice of eliminating good jobs in the oil and natural gas
industry to create green jobs," Gerard said.
Oil and gas companies have spent record
amounts of money lobbying Congress recently as they try to blunt the
impact of the bill.
Refiners,
in particular, say the inherent costs in the legislation could shift
some fuel production outside the U.S., where refiners would not be
bound by its provisions.
The National
Petrochemical & Refiners Association also says the legislation
hurts them two different ways, by capping emissions from refineries as
well as emissions from the fuels they produce. But refiners say they
are not recieving enough credits.
The association says the legislation could
cost U.S. refiners as much as $58 billion a year.
Coal
miners also are worried because it might cut into demand for coal,
which is loaded with carbon. Mining also uses a lot of energy, so the
rise in energy costs would hurt their bottom line.
The
country gets about half of its electricity from coal. Some utilities
that rely on coal to generate much of their electricity worried about
initial versions of the legislation that they said would lead to
skyrocketing rates. The current version will mean much smaller
increases, they said.
Columbus, Ohio-based
American Electric Power said the legislation will send rates about 25
percent higher by 2015; the initial version would have meant rate hikes
of 65 percent to 75 percent.
Another big
utility that relies on coal, Charlotte, N.C.-based Duke Energy, said
the legislation creates regulatory certainty for an industry that
spends billions on capital expenditures annually. If Congress does not
act, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will after the U.S.
Supreme Court gave the agency authority to regulate emissions under the
Clean Air Act, Jim Rogers, Duke's chairman, president and CEO, said in
a letter to U.S. Rep. James Clyburn obtained by The Associated Press.
"While
the EPA may have the technical expertise to create environmentally
sound regulations, it lacks the explicit legislative authority to craft
an environmentally sound program that minimizes costs to consumers and
our economy," the letter said. "So leaving the EPA with the
responsibility to develop and implement a program that will touch every
aspect of our daily lives is neither appropriate nor in the best
interest of our nation."
Rogers said the
initial legislation would have required consumers in states where
fossil fuels make up the majority of electric generation to pay double
- first to purchase the allowances to keep current generation
operational and then for investments in low-carbon technology.
Wayne
Leonard, chairman and president of New Orleans-based Entergy, said his
company is looking at its alternatives such as biomass and expanding
production from its nuclear plants to cut emissions.
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John Porretto in Houston, Mark Williams in
Columbus, Ohio, and Tim Huber in Charleston, W.Va., contributed to this
report.
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