http://britanniaradio.blogspot.com/2009/06/metamorphoses-20090619-berlin-own.html#links
Saturday, 27 June 2009 Metamorphoses 2009/06/19 BERLIN (Own report) - The German foreign intelligence service is predicting shifts in the global power constellation and is demanding "a geo-strategic debate in Germany." According to a classified Federal Intelligence Service (BND) study, the collapse of the western national economies, whose recuperation is unpredictable, could lead to a drastic acceleration of China's rise and the decline of West Germany's long-term primary ally, the United States. This intelligence service paper is being currently discussed in Berlin and excepts have been leaked to the press to prepare public opinion for possible changes in global policy orientation. "A long-term global crisis" cannot, for the moment, be excluded, assesses the BND, who, if this happens, is anticipating "massive unemployment and movements of migration in unprecedented dimensions" as well as an escalation of nationalism and very serious international tensions. An essential question, for the future global conflict constellations, according to this paper, will be if Russia can be bound to the West or if Moscow will go over to the Chinese adversary. The Asian Century The "confidential" BND study on the effects of the world economic crisis on global power constellations has been discussed in Berlin's government circles since last spring. The gist of the paper is now being expounded upon in the specialized periodical "Internationale Politik" to "generate a geo-strategic debate in Germany."[1] The journal's preface explains that "the world economic crisis is accelerating the dawn of the 'Asian Century.' The global balance of power is being shifted to the East."[2] In its study, the BND developed various scenarios on how this shift could take place. "We are possibly experiencing a geopolitical metamorphosis"[3] summarized BND President, Ernst Uhrlau, the anticipated serious transformations in the international system of states - having recourse to terminology rich in German tradition. Both German attempts to conquer world power last century, were accompanied by "geopolitical" contemplations. For decades, following the Second World War, that term fell into desuetude, until it suffered a renaissance in the 1990s. Shift Eastward The BND study's "Scenario No. 1", parts from the premise of "a recuperation of the market situation and a return of confidence in the world's economy".[4] Even though, in this scenario, the USA will be able to still maintain its predominance "for awhile," this will have "no influence" on "China's steady rise," according to the BND. "The weight between the major blocks: the USA, the EU and China" will inevitably "slowly shift eastward," predicts the German foreign intelligence service. This paper's "Scenario No. 1," which the authors doubt will materialize, includes an enhanced margin of maneuver for the most important exporters of raw materials, such as Russia, the Arab countries, Iran and Venezuela, due to their increase in prosperity as well as the rise in the price of raw materials, "with all the advantages and disadvantages that this would entail." This could lead particularly Venezuela and Russia to "act more self-confident on the political stage," warns the BND. The China Scenario According to the BND, "Scenario No. 2" would be "much less pleasant." The unprecedented billions of US dollars in bailouts could be a complete flop, the infamous excessive indebtedness of the US credit card could burst new finance bubbles, pulling the economy further into the abyss. If, in spite of the West's collapse, China succeeds in continuing its technological race to catch up, it "will very rapidly rise to become the predominating power in Asia." Whereas the USA has been forced to limit "its radius of action sooner than planned, out of financial considerations" Beijing could play its winning hand throughout the international arena. "The stronger China, and the weaker the USA appear" the more unambiguously many states could begin "to politically orient themselves" on the East, warns the BND. Decisive in this question is in which direction Russia will turn. The foreign intelligence service hopes that Moscow will stick with the West "to avoid having to take on the role of the ascending China's junior partner." But it is also imaginable that Russia will "rely offensively on Peking."[5] Berlin's "Strategic Community" has been contemplating this possibility for some time. Last year the Federal College for Security Studies openly speculated about a "threat of military conflict" between the West (EU, USA) and the East (China, Russia). (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[6]) World War Potential Whereas the intelligence service officially anticipates a development between Scenarios No. 1 and 2, they have also discovered tendencies that could make a "Scenario No. 3." This scenario predicts "a long-term global crisis" that would lead to an extensive re-nationalization of the world's economies. As a matter of fact, over the past few months, imports and exports in Germany, China, and Japan have dramatically collapsed. If this crisis endures, it could lead to the spread of "political instability" in countries furnishing raw materials due to a lack of exports. In such a case, China would also be threatened with an "unprecedented massive unemployment and movements of migration." The BND anticipates that China - as well as Russia - could pass through this period "by fomenting nationalism" to "redirect [domestic] aggressions toward overseas," eventually even against the West. "One needs little imagination, to picture the conflict that could evolve, for example with the USA" the paper explains in reference to "Scenario No. 3's" potential for a world war.[7] Prompter The BND's three scenarios point out the basic lines of Berlin's debate on the global political development for the next few years and decades. The few elements of this study that have been divulged to the public, pass in silence over German tendencies in the domestic crisis - here too nationalism is on the rise [8] - along with the aggressive potential in Berlin's foreign policy. Nonetheless the initiator of the study provides elements of what can be expected in German domestic developments. It was not one of Berlin's political establishment think tanks or one of the large foundations of private corporations that provided the German government with this study on the expected shifts in global power constellations. It was the foreign intelligence service, whose influence over the past decade has already significantly grown. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[9]) Once again, the main prompter proves to be the repressive and espionage apparatus, rather than the civilian establishment in Berlin. [1] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009 [2] Die Neuvermessung der Welt; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009 [3] "Die Terrorgefahr steigt vor den Wahlen"; Handelsblatt 01.06.2009 [4], [5] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009 [6] see also Bär und Drache [7] Andreas Rinke: Metamorphose der Geopolitik; Internationale Politik, Juni 2009 [8] see also National Responses [9] see also Sicherheitspolitisch verzahnt and Lauschtechnik [Non-text portions of this message have been removed] __._,_.___ Messages in this topic <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/message/92940;_ylc=X3oDMTM2bmszcGdtBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzkyOTQwBHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3Z0cGMEc3RpbWUDMTI0NjExOTIxNAR0cGNJZAM5Mjk0MA-->( 1) Reply (via web post) <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJxNDdxMmtzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BG1zZ0lkAzkyOTQwBHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3JwbHkEc3RpbWUDMTI0NjExOTIxNA--?act=reply&messageNum=92940>| Start a new topic <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/post;_ylc=X3oDMTJlMG1qczJuBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA250cGMEc3RpbWUDMTI0NjExOTIxNA--> Messages<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/messages;_ylc=X3oDMTJlbmJxNnFxBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA21zZ3MEc3RpbWUDMTI0NjExOTIxNA--> Subscribe: [email protected] Unsubscribe: [email protected] NB - The Libertarian Alliance does not necessarily approve of the above message. MARKETPLACE You have 1 New Message: Someone Challenges your IQ!.<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14kgr022j/M=733250.13450162.13535738.10835568/D=groups/S=1705060169:MKP1/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=FohtBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=5759333/R=0/SIG=12jkh3gvs/*http://www.socialtrack.net/redir.aspx?CID=24801&AFID=43106&DID=108590&SID=message> ------------------------------ How Many Triangles? 92.6% of Americans Fail this Question!.<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14k3mbcve/M=733250.13450161.13535737.10835568/D=groups/S=1705060169:MKP1/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=F4htBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=5754783/R=0/SIG=12havo8bp/*http://www.socialtrack.net/redir.aspx?CID=24801&AFID=43106&DID=108590&SID=group> ------------------------------ Mom Power: Discover the community of moms doing more for their families, for the world and for each other<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14kmukjq0/M=493064.12016295.13271503.10835568/D=groups/S=1705060169:MKP1/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=GIhtBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=5697381/R=0/SIG=11eaa5dke/*http://groups.yahoo.com/group/mompowergroup/> [image: Yahoo! Groups]<http://groups.yahoo.com/;_ylc=X3oDMTJkYWM1amt1BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2dmcARzdGltZQMxMjQ2MTE5MjE0> Change settings via the Web<http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum/join;_ylc=X3oDMTJmam1yZ2s2BF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA3N0bmdzBHN0aW1lAzEyNDYxMTkyMTQ->(Yahoo! ID required) Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest<[email protected]?subject=email+delivery:+Digest>| Switch format to Traditional<[email protected]?subject=change+delivery+format:+Traditional> Visit Your Group <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum;_ylc=X3oDMTJkbXZmODRtBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwNmdHIEc2xrA2hwZgRzdGltZQMxMjQ2MTE5MjE0>| Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use <http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/> | Unsubscribe <[email protected]?subject=> Recent Activity Visit Your Group <http://groups.yahoo.com/group/libertarian-alliance-forum;_ylc=X3oDMTJlM3U4ZHEzBF9TAzk3MzU5NzE0BGdycElkAzIyMzcxMjgEZ3Jwc3BJZAMxNzA1MDYwMTY5BHNlYwN2dGwEc2xrA3ZnaHAEc3RpbWUDMTI0NjExOTIxNA--> Yahoo! News Odd News<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14hhsbq46/M=493064.12016309.12445701.8674578/D=groups/S=1705060169:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=GYhtBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=3848614/R=0/SIG=12t4qk00m/*http://news.yahoo.com/i/757;_ylt=A9FJqYzfwK5EFCQAswis0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3NW1oMDRpBHNlYwM3NTc-> You won't believe it, but it's true Yahoo! Groups Small Business Group<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14hahl671/M=493064.12016272.13586184.8674578/D=groups/S=1705060169:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=GohtBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=5758219/R=0/SIG=124m43uve/*http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/BankofAmerica_SmallBusiness/> Own a business? Connect with others. Support Group Lose lbs together<http://us.ard.yahoo.com/SIG=14iqedbop/M=493064.12016300.12445692.11323196/D=groups/S=1705060169:NC/Y=YAHOO/EXP=1246126414/L=/B=G4htBUPDhE4-/J=1246119214921780/K=B2K7GXfqLveE_5SuuoyAVg/A=5597441/R=0/SIG=11kad247r/*http://advision.webevents.yahoo.com/specialkgroup/> Share your weight- loss successes. . __,_._,___ --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls. * Read the latest breaking news, and more. -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
