Afghanistan’s gunpoint election
20 August 2009

By any measure, today’s presidential election in Afghanistan is a
travesty. The poll takes place under conditions of a continuing
foreign military occupation to prop up a puppet government that is
notorious for its human rights abuses, corruption and failure to
provide for the basic needs of the vast majority of the population.

The incumbent president and leading contender, Hamid Karzai, who was
installed in office in 2002 by the US, is widely despised by the
Afghan people. Excluded from the field of major candidates is anyone
who opposes the US-NATO occupation, despite the fact that it is
opposed by a large majority of the population, particularly in the
southern Pashtun region, where Taliban influence is strong. Karzai’s
leading rival and former foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah, was
previously a spokesman for the Northern Alliance militias that helped
the US topple the Taliban.

Despite the boosting of US and NATO troop numbers, the Taliban and its
allies hold sway over large areas of eastern and southern Afghanistan
and are calling for an election boycott. In at least 60 percent of the
country, polling stations are at risk of attack. Some 440 out of 7,000
stations will not be opened at all as they cannot be protected. Around
100,000 foreign troops and 180,000 Afghan government army and police
personnel are being deployed to secure the vote.

The Taliban and other insurgent groups, such as Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s
Hezb-e-Islami movement, are intensifying their efforts to drive US and
NATO troops from the country and overthrow the pro-US government. All
of the leading presidential candidates are promising peace talks and
even power-sharing with the insurgents, but, with their support
growing, the Taliban and Hekmatyar have stated that they will not
enter into talks under conditions of foreign occupation.

To prove their reach, the insurgents have carried out high-profile
attacks over the past week against the nerve centres of the
occupation. The NATO headquarters and the nearby US embassy in Kabul
were targeted by a massive vehicle bomb on August 15. On Tuesday,
Taliban fighters managed to position mortars within range and fire
shells into the grounds of the heavily guarded presidential palace in
the heart of the capital.

Numerous other attacks on US and foreign troops, Afghan security
forces, election candidates and government officials have taken place
this month, including in the northern provinces of the country where
the Taliban insurgency was once believed to have no presence. The US/
NATO death toll for August has already reached 50, following on from
the war-high of 75 fatalities in July. Each month, at least 150
government troops and police are also being killed, though official
figures are rarely released.

The vote is expected to be very low in the south and east. An Afghan
judge in Uruzgan province told McClatchy News: “Only 10 to 20 percent
of the people will be able to vote. When 80 percent of the people
can’t vote, how can this be a transparent election?”

While the US will undoubtedly blame Taliban violence, eight years of
indiscriminate air attacks, ground assaults and thousands of arbitrary
detentions have generated deep-seated hostility to the occupation and
its Afghan collaborators.

The US invasion has essentially placed back in power the Northern
Alliance—the grouping of ethnic-based warlords who were overthrown by
the Taliban in 1996. The only new faces are a collection of grasping
émigré businessmen who have returned from the US and Europe to
profiteer from multibillion-dollar “reconstruction” and “aid”
projects.

In the central and northern provinces, the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazari
warlords will largely dictate the outcome. Karzai is expected to be
the main beneficiary. His two vice-presidential candidates and other
supporters are prominent Northern Alliance members, and he is backed
by a number of anti-Taliban Pashtun powerbrokers in the south—
including his brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai, who is accused of organising
much of the opium and heroin trade out of Kandahar province.

Even the Obama administration has had to admit that the result will be
tarnished by wholesale ballot-rigging, primarily by electoral
officials appointed by Karzai. It is believed that there at least 3
million duplicate or fraudulent voter registration cards in
circulation, out of a total of 17 million. The BBC revealed this week
that its undercover journalists had no difficulty arranging to buy
1,000 cards—for $10 each—on the streets of Kabul.

If Karzai does not win outright, he will be forced into a run-off with
the second highest vote-getter. The most recent opinion poll conducted
by the US International Republican Institute gave Karzai 44 percent
against 26 percent for his closest rival, Abdullah Abdullah. Two other
prominent candidates, Ashraf Ghani and Ramazan Bashardost, each polled
less than 10 percent.

The fraudulent character of the poll is underscored by the Obama
administration’s overt meddling. Despite having loyally served the US-
led occupation, Karzai has faced increasing criticism in the US over
his administration’s corruption and lack of public support. Karzai’s
own limited criticisms of air strikes have rankled the US military.
Despite Washington’s claim to neutrality, US ambassador Karl
Eikenberry appeared publicly earlier this year alongside two of
Karzai’s leading rivals.

The White House also signaled its displeasure towards Karzai by
publicly condemning the return to Afghanistan last Saturday of ethnic
Uzbek strongman Abdul Rashid Dostum—one of the brutal warlords in the
pre-Taliban period and a key US ally during the 2001 invasion. Last
year, Dostum was pressured to go into voluntary exile in Turkey after
he murdered a political opponent. Having returned at Karzai’s
invitation, Dostum immediately called for a vote for the incumbent
president.

The US embassy issued a hypocritical statement declaring that Dostum
faced “questions of his culpability for massive human rights
violations.” The charge referred not to his war crimes in the 1990s,
but to the mass killing of Taliban prisoners captured by his Northern
Alliance fighters in Kunduz in 2001. No mention was made of the
involvement of CIA operatives and US Special Forces in a similar
massacre at Mazar-i-Sharif. (See: “A cover-up of US massacre at Mazar-
i-Sharif”)

The US and its allies appear to be aiming at preventing Karzai from
winning outright in the first round. The British ambassador in
Afghanistan, Mark Sedwell, told the Australian Broadcasting
Corporation on Tuesday night that a second round of voting would help
“convince people the process was real.”

Even if Karzai does win the poll, his position is hardly secure. David
Kilcullen, a leading advisor to US military commanders, described
Karzai in the harshest language earlier this month and ominously
compared him with South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem, whom the
Kennedy administration had assassinated in 1963.

Washington is quietly pushing a plan to strip the president of many of
his powers by installing an unelected “chief executive officer” to
take over the day-to-day operations of the Afghan government. Among
the possible candidates is Ashraf Ghani, who has worked for the
foreign policy wing of the Brookings Institute, the World Bank and the
United Nations.

Once the election is out of the way, the Obama administration and the
Pentagon will push ahead with plans for a major escalation of the war.
Tens of thousands of additional US troops have been put in place, and
US commanders are preparing to call for many more to be sent to kill
and be killed in this brutal neo-colonial war.

James Cogan

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