Daily Presidential Tracking Poll Friday, December 11, 2009 The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 27% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Thirty-nine percent (39%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -12 (see trends<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_history> ).
Just 36% now believe that the president is doing a good or an excellent job handling the economy while 45% rate his performance in this area as poor. Seventy-one percent (71%) of Democrats say he’s doing a good or excellent job on the economy while 74% of Republicans say poor. Among those not affiliated with either major party, 52% give the President poor marks when it comes to the economy. On national security matters, 39% rate the president’s performance as good or excellent while 36% say poor. Most voters nationwide lack confidence that NATO will do its part to help in Afghanistan<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/general_politics/december_2009/most_voters_lack_confidence_in_nato_to_do_its_part_in_afghanistan> .** In recent days, Rasmussen Reports has released updated polls on the 2010 Senate races in Colorado<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/colorado/election_2010_colorado_senate_race> , Illinois<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/illinois/election_2010_illinois_senate_election> , Connecticut<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/connecticut/election_2010_connecticut_senate_race> , Pennsylvania,<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/pennsylvania/2010_senate_election/election_2010_pennsylvania_senate_election> Ohio<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/ohio/election_2010_ohio_senate_race>, and Arkansas<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/2010_arkansas_senate_lincoln_runs_behind_four_gop_challengers>. Overall, the results confirm the conventional wisdom that the mid-term election season is off to a tough start for the Democrats. However, there is a long way to go until November. The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/daily_updates>). Updates are also available on Twitter <http://twitter.com/RasmussenPoll> and Facebook<http://www.facebook.com/pages/Asbury-Park-NJ/Rasmussen-Reports/86959124863?> . Overall, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President's performance. Fifty-one percent (51%) disapprove. These figures have been remarkably stable and the approval totals have stayed in a narrow range between 46% and 50% every day but one for more than two months. An analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.<http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20090911_5838.php>” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race. (More Below) Forty-three percent (43%) favor urgent action on global warming<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/environment_energy/43_favor_urgent_action_against_global_warming_43_say_not_so_fast> while 43% say not so fast. Seventy-six percent (76%) prefer a free market economy<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/business/general_business/december_2009/76_prefer_free_market_economy> over a government-managed approach. Forty-eight percent (48%) of voters believe there are too many restrictions on the market in the U.S. today. Scott Rasmussen has recently had several columns published in the *Wall Street Journal *addressing how President Obama is losing independent voters<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574525543109875438.html> ,* *health care reform<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204313604574330442429438938.html>, the President's approval<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123690358175013837.html> ratings, and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan.<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122628429302812557.html> If you'd like Scott Rasmussen to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau<http://www.premierespeakers.com/scott_rasmussen>. You can also learn about Scott's favorite place on earth or his time working withhockey legend Gordie Howe. <http://scottrasmussen.net/About.php> It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama's numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That's because some of the President's most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/november_2009/question_wording_and_job_approval> from different firms. (More Below) Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology> ). Pollster.com <http://www.pollster.com/> founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from theNational Council on Public Polls<http://ncpp.org/?q=node/114> , the American Association for Public Opinion Research<http://aapor.org/uploads/AAPOR_Rept_FINAL-Rev-4-13-09.pdf>, the Pew Research Center<http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1266/polling-challenges-election-08-success-in-dealing-with>, the *Wall Street Journal*<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122592455567202805.html> andFiveThirtyEight.com<http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/search/label/pollster%20ratings> have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes<http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20090911_5838.php> .” In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment<http://www.slate.com/blogs/blogs/kausfiles/archive/tags/KF+LOVES+GLOATS/default.aspx/> ,* *“If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!” During Election 2008, Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I'd want with me on a desert island."<http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/tracking-poll-primer.html> A Fordham University professor rated the national pollsters<http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf> on their record in Election 2008. We also have provided a summary of our results<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/how_did_we_do> for your review. In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote. In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2004/state_by_state_actual_results_vs_rasmussen_reports_polls2> ). Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters--is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/premium_content/political_tracking_crosstabs/december_2009/crosstabs_full_week_november_30_december_6_2009> are available for Premium Members<http://rasmussenreports.com/premium_service_description> . Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology>). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Over the past five years, the number of Democrats in the country has increased while the number of Republicans has decreased. Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide<http://www.rasmussen%20%20reports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/party_affiliation/partisan_trends> completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 37.1% Democrats, 32.4% Republicans, and 30.5% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats. A review of last week’s key polls<http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/weekly_updates/what_they_told_us_reviewing_last_week_s_key_polls> is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/scoreboards/by_the_numbers2/by_the_numbers>page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/demographic_notes_barack_obama_approval_index> from the tracking polls. 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