An article of explanation for people who are interested... As also, Central Asia continues its Great Game... And Russia and China will put their two cents worth...
http://www.expressbuzz.com/edition/story.aspx?Title=ISI%92s+feeling+pretty+bubbly&artid=v7SycJJIYQE=&SectionID=d16Fdk4iJhE=&MainSectionID=HuSUEmcGnyc=&SectionName=aVlZZy44Xq0bJKAA84nwcg==&SEO= >>> t would not be surprising if the ISI gave Osama up to the Americans in this >>> 18-month interim, to encourage the American plan for a 2011 withdrawal. But >>> it will not give Mullah Omar up, because there can be no regime more >>> pro-Pakistan than the one Mullah Omar may head in Kabul. The Pakistan army >>> wants nothing more than his return. The army wants India ejected from >>> Afghanistan, and not just because it suspects India of supporting >>> insurgents in Balochistan (which credits too much to Indian intelligence, >>> and anyway President Asif Ali Zardari is working out a political and >>> economic package for the province); but also because it has been assisting >>> President Hamid Karzai with high-profile projects. India has been involved >>> in educating Afghans, something the population enthusiastically responded >>> to after the Taliban were deposed. The Hazaras have apparently taken >>> advantage of new educational opportunities. India has also been building >>> roads, linking up Central Asia to Iran via Heart, in an effort to someday >>> revive the traditional Silk Route for trade in energy. The Americans aim to build capacity for the Afghan army and police; the US wants to hand over Afghanistan’s security to them and withdraw its troops in time for the next presidential election (but even that is too late for some of Obama’s fellow Democrats). Theirs is a pipedream. The police are corrupt, parochial and ineffectual (perhaps because the CIA since 9/11 allowed the Afghan warlords to flourish instead of building institutions). The army is only slightly better. More alarmingly, it is believed that both the Afghan police and army have been deeply penetrated by Taliban agents. Expect more of this in the next 18 months, as the Americans go on a recruiting and training spree so that they can hurry out of Afghanistan. The best way to keep the Taliban out, even after 2011, is to replace American troops with other professionals. The Europeans don’t want to deploy, so that leaves India; but Pakistan will hear nothing of it. Deploying Indian troops defeats the purpose of the Pakistan army’s whole Afghanistan strategy; everyone knows there is no peace-keeping in Afghanistan, only battles against the Taliban (ask the British who deployed in opium-rich Helmand province). The US, mindful of Pakistan’s protest, does not push the matter. Yet, if over the next 18 months the CIA gets more exasperated with the ISI for not helping nab Mullah Omar or Osama, or for not being able to control the terrorism inside Pakistan, then attitudes will be ripe for change. Things will never get better in Pakistan. Its 176 million population will increase to 309 million by 2050, the UN says. Without a social sector — education, healthcare, jobs, or hope — even a miniscule fraction of that can make for a lot of anti-America jihadis. Over the next 18 months, India needs to convince the US that the Pakistanis are not up to the job of controlling terrorism. India needs to convince the US that there can be no other solution to reviving Afghanistan (and throwing a political life-line to the US administration) than for allowing India to deploy its counter- insurgency hardened soldiers to Afghanistan. India needs to convince the US that when Pakistan controlled Afghanistan then 9/11 happened; on the other hand, India’s influence on Afghanistan brought calm and peace. And if there is another terrorist strike against India, then the US will have no choice but to deploy Indian troops. This ought to be India’s plan. Then, come 2012, maybe we’ll be popping open the champagne. -- Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups. For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum * Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/ * It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls. * Read the latest breaking news, and more.
