<http://www.commentarymagazine.com/redirect_.cfm?zoneid=45>
Like a Stone
<http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/gordon/195001>
John Steele Gordon
<http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/category/contentions?author_name=gordon>
- 12.13.2009 - 2:56 PM
Something interesting is going on. Jennifer this morning reported
<http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/rubin/194641> that
Obama had reached a new low in the Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll
yesterday, at -16. The latest results
<http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll>,
released a couple of hours ago, show the president at -19 a mere 24
hours later.
Not surprisingly, Obama's popularity began declining right after
Inauguration Day, as the messy reality of actually governing replaced
the warm glow of rhetoric. He was at +28 on January 21st but down to +10
a month later. He slipped into negative territory in June, when he was
at -2 on June 21st. By November 21st, he was at -13.
But the last week was been brutal: -11 last Monday, -10 on Tuesday, -11
on Wednesday, -12 on Thursday and Friday, -16 on Saturday, -19 today.
Perhaps even worse for Obama has been the sharp decline in the number of
those who strongly approve. That number dropped by 4 percentage points
this week, from 27 percent to 23 percent, while the strongly
disapproving increased an equal amount.
And the decline is across the board:
Just 41% of Democrats Strongly Approve while 69% of Republicans Strongly
Disapprove. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 21%
Strongly Approve and 49% Strongly Disapprove.
Polls, like markets, fluctuate on a daily basis. One day's or even one
week's change doesn't amount to much. But the chart below sure looks
like a political bear market to me. And in politics, that translates
into a loss of power to persuade other politicians to go along. With
public approval of the Senate Health Care bill at an all-time low (-32
in the latest CNN poll
<http://spectator.org/blog/2009/12/10/cnn-poll-61-of-americans-oppos>),
it seems as though it will be increasingly difficult for the president
to persuade all 60 Democrats and Independents in the Senate to walk that
particular plank.
My guess is that if just one of the needed 60 senators were to announce
that he or she would not vote for cloture this month, regardless of what
Harry Reid comes up with in the next few days, ("I'm in favor of
health-care reform, but we need to consider this more carefully" ---
translation: I like my job and want to keep it) others would quickly
follow. That would push it into 2010 and, almost surely, into a richly
deserved political oblivion.
http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/gordon/195001
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