*Bad News For Congressional Democrats From Gallup: *Republicans almost
always trail Democrats on the generic congressional question, but not in
Gallup's latest poll of registered voters
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/127073/Republicans-Move-Ahead-2010-Vote-Congress.aspx>.
Registered voters now say they prefer the Republican to the
Democratic candidate in their district by 47% to 44% in the midterm
congressional elections, the first time the GOP has led in 2010
election preferences since Gallup began weekly tracking of these in
March.
. . .
These results suggest the Republicans would have a strong showing if
the midterm elections were held today. Since Republicans usually
vote at higher rates than Democrats, the Republicans' edge in voter
preferences would likely exceed what the registered voter results
indicate.
A Republican advantage among all registered voters in midterm
elections has been rare in Gallup's 60-year history of tracking
congressional voting preferences, happening only a few times each in
the 1950, 1994, and 2002 election cycles -- all years in which
Republicans had strong Election Day showings.
It may be even worse for Democratic candidates that those overall
numbers, judging by this analysis of the distribution
<http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/polls-apart> of Obama's support.
By the numbers, black voters are Obama's core base of support. They
support him more solidly than any other demographic group---more
than young voters, more than postgraduate degree holders. Of
course, every politician has a core constituency. What's
extraordinary about President Obama's is not just the uniformity of
support within his core constituency, but the difference in both
degree and trajectory between this base and the rest of the electorate.
Every other group has moved away from Obama, but blacks have, if
anything, become more loyal.
Unfortunately for Democratic House candidates, blacks are mostly in the
wrong districts
While about 12 percent of Americans are black, relatively few
congressional districts have an average demographic make up.
Because of gerrymandering, mandated majority-minority districting,
and simple geographic diversity, blacks tend to be concentrated in
certain congressional districts. There are 31 districts with a
black population over 40 percent. Only 132 districts are above the
national average in terms of black population---leaving 303
districts below the national average.
. . .
This uneven dispersal magnifies the disparity of approval between
Obama's base and the rest of the country. If relatively few
congressional districts look like America, then in most
congressional districts Obama's job approval is likely to be
lower---anywhere from 2 to 7 points lower---than the national
average. (Conversely, in a smaller number of districts it is likely
to be much, much higher.)
Democratic candidates who understand this will try to distance
themselves from Obama, but the Democratic leaders seem intent on forcing
them to make highly publicized votes in favor of Obama programs, which
will make that strategy more difficult to pull off.
- 9:07 AM, 1 April 2010 [link]
<http://www.seanet.com/%7Ejimxc/Politics/April2010_1.html#jrm8554>
--
Thanks for being part of "PoliticalForum" at Google Groups.
For options & help see http://groups.google.com/group/PoliticalForum
* Visit our other community at http://www.PoliticalForum.com/
* It's active and moderated. Register and vote in our polls.
* Read the latest breaking news, and more.
To unsubscribe, reply using "remove me" as the subject.
