Brutal Bahrain Crackdown May Be a
Prelude to Broader Action
Gulf Nations Unlikely to Accept a Free
Bahrain
by Jason Ditz, February 18, 2011
The tiny island nation of Bahrain is the
home to a major uprising at this point, and while government censorship
is making it difficult to get the full picture, a brutal crackdown
earlier today
near the hospital has left massive numbers of casualties and a
growing sense of fury amongst the nation’s Shi’ite majority.
The situation in Bahrain now appears to be a test case for tyrants across
the region, as a monarch that is clearly opposed by a strong majority of
the population struggles to cling to power through international support
and determined, grim violence.
Which was tried in Tunisia, unsuccessfully, and tried in Egypt even more
unsuccessfully. One would think the lesson that violence just makes
demonstrators all the angrier is lost in Bahrain’s first, and potentially
last king, but the island nation’s differences from massive nations like
Egypt have some holding out hope that brutality can “work” in this
case.
In
particular,
regional analysts note a massive amount of opposition amongst Bahrain’s
Gulf neighbors to the notion of a free nation where the majority of the
population is Shi’ite. With the Saudis in particular fretting an
uprising amongst their own Shi’ites if the ones on the island suddenly
take a liking to individual freedom.
The US, likewise,
is struggling to ensure “stability” in the region, but as with Egypt
is so far behind the curve that their ability to sway the situation
appears to be extremely minimal. The hawkish US leadership needs Bahrain
as a naval base far more than Bahrain needs it.
And Bahrain is so tiny that a foreign nation like Saudi Arabia probably
could just overrun it and massacre the Shi’ites into quieting down, or
failing that massacring them into a voting minority. A number of analysts
see this as a likely reaction from nations that fear a free Bahrain
almost as much as they fear freedom in their own nations.
But in the 21st century massacres don’t go unreported, and even if the US
stands back and lets someone else slaughter the king back into a position
of strength, the global outcry over such an incident is likely to be even
more destabilizing to the region’s tyrants than the natural thirst for
freedom already is. In the long run, there are no good solutions for how
to keep a dictator in power when the people want him gone.
http://news.antiwar.com/2011/02/18/brutal-bahrain-crackdown-may-be-a-prelude-to-broader-action/
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