http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11291050%255E2703,00.html
US conservatism on the rise Bronwen Maddox November 05, 2004 THE world was waiting to see if George W. Bush's first term was an aberration; whether he was an accidental president. Now it knows Bush is here to stay. Americans have endorsed the controversial foreign policies that defined his first term, and have sent the rest of the world a profound message: the US is growing more conservative. Other governments will now have to deal with Bush, and with US conservatism. Waiting for him to go away is no longer an option. This election felt different from recent polls because of the passionate involvement in the rest of the world, as well as the US. It has been called the world election in which the world did not have a vote. A sequence of "world polls" in the past two months recorded powerful anti-Bush feelings across the Arab world, to no surprise, and also across much of Europe. Many hold his administration responsible for launching an abrasive and unilateralist imperialism. But Bush's first term did not leave him entirely without support among his counterparts. A handful took the rare step of making their support clear in advance, including Australian Prime Minister John Howard, his counterparts in Japan and Italy, Junichiro Koizumi and Silvio Berlusconi, and Russian President Vladimir Putin. >From Bush's point of view, what might he now want to change from here? In Iraq, very little. US troops around Fallujah, who have been held in suspension waiting for the election result, now know an assault on the city is imminent. That might not have been the case under John Kerry. Bush cannot expect much more help from international forces than the little he has been getting; it was not clear Kerry would have succeeded in securing much either. The clearest path to an exit is still to try to train Iraqi forces to take over, although the rate at which they are being killed shows the vulnerability of that policy. The Bush team's only plan has been to get to the elections set for January, and then take another look. After Iraq, Iran's nuclear ambitions present Washington with its most urgent decisions. Next week, a report from the United Nations nuclear watchdog is expected to be a long way in tone from the tough line the US favours, complicating its attempt to put pressure on Tehran. The issue of US involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is also inescapable. Bush officials say privately they are prepared to try to build on Israel's plans to leave Gaza, but not to reopen talk of a "road map to peace". This amounts to a change in coolness towards the predicament, but falls a long way short of European hopes, and there is plenty of room for US-European aggravation. Relations with Europe, New and Old, are hard to predict. Bush's re-election may encourage Paris and Berlin to make more conciliatory noises; he may choose to do the same. But the disagreements -- over Iraq, Iran and the Middle East, for a start -- are real. At the same time, "New Europe", particularly the Eastern and Central European countries that had seemed natural supporters of Bush, are more wary, feeling they have given him important backing over Iraq, but got little in return. Bush has said Africa is a priority. But the opposition of US conservative groups to family-planning support has curtailed work on AIDS prevention and other health programs, in a way critics feel distorts Washington's development efforts. And Bush's first term left one large blank in his foreign policy: how to respond to the rise and rise of China. Henry Kissinger argued last week that the US had not acknowledged enough the "shift in the centre of gravity" this would cause, nor the need to establish a sophisticated dialogue with China's leaders. But if there is a change in Bush's foreign policy in his second term, it is likely to be one of tone, not substance-- an attempt to retrieve some of the first-term mistakes. In practice, the Bush policy will probably be shaped in important ways -- as was the first -- by events, and by the changing character of the US. This election makes clear the Bush foreign policy is not just the expression of his personality. It is supported by a growing conservatism -- the section of US society that looks most foreign to others, but which they must seriously consider how to handle. Bronwen Maddox is foreign editor of The Times ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Make a clean sweep of pop-up ads. Yahoo! Companion Toolbar. Now with Pop-Up Blocker. 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