http://english.pravda.ru/mailbox/22/101/397/14839_Tsunami.html

 
Second Tsunami: Complacency
01/19/2005 12:42 
The second tsunami is not about another wave nor another earthquake and 
thankfully, neither is it about a doubling of the death rate through disease.

The second tsunami which could be as deadly as the first, although this time on 
a chronic and not such an acute scale, is the sort of complacency which gave 
rise to the enormous number of deaths in the first place.

The good news messages, that after all the death toll will not double through 
disease, perhaps creates a false notion in the hearts and minds of the 
international community that all is well and that normality has resumed. True, 
the considerable and immediate response from the international community, in 
which Russia was one of the first on the scene (although this went practically 
unreported in western news circles) and in which the government of the Russian 
Federation donated in comparative terms at least as much as other major 
contributors, has led to the fortunate state of affairs whereby a massive 
vaccination programme, a back-to-school programme, crime prevention schemes and 
a clean-up has substantially reduced the risk of an explosion of contagious 
diseases in the disaster area within three weeks. 

UNICEF executive director Carol Bellamy stated recently after her tour of Sri 
Lanka and Indonesia that "In virtually all the countries, apart from Indonesia 
at this point, not only is the relief effort going well but there are clear 
signs of the beginning of the recovery effort". Good news but it must be 
remembered that Carol Bellamy excluded Indonesia, the country which bore the 
full brunt of the tidal wave, large swathes of northern Sumatra having been 
totally destroyed.

Jan Egeland, the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, stated at a press conference 
at the end of last week that the feared second wave of the tsunami, the 
outbreak of disease, now seems not to have appeared. "I do not think it is a 
right prediction any more that as many people die from the second wave of 
destroyed infrastructure as we then feared in the beginning".

The International Fund for Agricultural Development is bringing in programmes 
not to distribute food, but to teach the survivors how to make best use of the 
resources they have, so as to gather a first crop as soon as possible. A 
spokesperson for the IFAD stated that "The goal is not only to help them to 
recover but to increase their capacity to cope with future natural disasters by 
enabling them to overcome the desperate poverty that makes them so vulnerable".

And vulnerable they are. The livelihoods of countless thousands of people were 
washed away with their homes and families on December 26th 2004. One million, 
two hundred thousand people are internally displaced, much of the 
infrastructure of Aceh has been destroyed and whatever industries there were in 
coastal areas have been utterly devastated. 

Displaced, destroyed, devastated. Yet the complacency which gave rise to this 
humanitarian catastrophe and the political interference from Jakarta, which has 
drawn a deadline for foreign military forces to leave the country by 26th 
March, deserve comment. 

If Jakarta's forces were in East Timor, as an unwanted occupation force, 
whether initially with the nod of Henry Kissinger or not, they were there not 
for three months and not in a humanitarian capacity. They were there for a 
quarter of a century and were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of 
thousands of innocent people. While nobody is looking to score political points 
in a time of crisis, Jakarta could show more flexibility in its demands, since 
the fuel needed for the humanitarian operations is supplied in most cases by 
military aircraft. 

As Jan Egeland declared to the press on this question, the transportation of 
goods, the airlifting of supplies by helicopter and the production of drinking 
water, today carried out by military forces, "can be taken over by civilians. 
But I would foresee that we need the military people to give us fuel, to give 
special kinds of hardware very quickly to certain areas beyond March and I hope 
really we can have an agreement on that".

Were it not for extreme complacency, a fraction of the number of victims would 
have died. Where was the early warning system? It was not. 

Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary General, declared at the meeting of Small Island 
States in Mauritius recently that seismic posts and mass evacuation training 
programmes will swing into action and that by June 2006, the early warning 
system for the Indian Ocean will be ready, extended on a worldwide scale by 
June 2007.

Finally, a policy is adopted. Too late for the 160.000 dead but possibly in 
time to save further losses of life. The important thing is for humankind to 
learn from this horrific lesson that complacency creates catastrophe, whether 
it is before a natural disaster or after it. 

The message is for the world to get behind the UNO, to value and respect its 
institutions instead of deriding them so that much needed aid can be channeled 
from a multitude of sources to where and when they are most needed.

Support the UNO, don't destroy it.

Timothy Bancroft-Hinchey


[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]



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