http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/world/ny- woiran234827137jul23,0,2825076.story?coll=ny-worldnews-print
ANALYSIS: THE MIDDLE EASTERN VIEW Why these Arab regimes backed Israel BY TIMOTHY M. PHELPS Newsday Washington Bureau Chief July 23, 2006 WASHINGTON -- The war in Lebanon has provoked a Middle East realignment in which the most influential Arab regimes have essentially made common cause with Israel against radical Islamic groups. Saudi Arabia, normally the most timid of Arab regimes, boldly denounced the Hezbollah (Party of God) raid into Israel - and was followed by Egypt and Jordan. Never before have these regimes sided with Israel in a conflict between it and any part of the Arab world. One reason: The three countries have all been recent victims of deadly attacks by Islamist groups and have as much to fear from them as Israel does, according to a new analysis gaining growing acceptance among Middle East scholars. Another is that Saudi Arabia, now under the leadership of a new king, had much invested - politically and financially - in the Lebanon it had helped rebuild, parts of which have been reduced to rubble just as they were by the 15-year civil war that ended in 2000. The apparent support for Israel, though more muted as its destruction in Lebanon grows, is likely part of the reason for the Bush administration's unprecedented refusal to call for a cease-fire in a Middle East war and the almost giddy optimism that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice reflected Friday when she said, "What we're seeing here [are] the birth pangs of a new Middle East." Today, the growing alliance between the Bush administration (and by proxy the Israelis) and the Saudis on this issue could be cemented into a plan when President George W. Bush and Rice meet with Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the former Saudi ambassador to the United States and a friend of the president, and Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al- Faisal. But some of the analysts say there is as much room for fear as there is for optimism by Israel, the United States and the three conservative Arab governments - the three parties to this adventure in reshaping the Middle East. As television screens fill with scenes of horror and carnage from Lebanon, the three highly autocratic Arab regimes are coming under mounting criticism inside and outside their boundaries for aligning themselves even for a moment with the perpetrator of all the destruction. Worse is the silent threat from radicalized citizens whose response may be to join the very militant groups the governments are trying to suppress. "These governments are making it sound as if they are urging the Israelis to go ahead and finish off Hezbollah," said Shibley Telhami, an expert on Arab public opinion at the University of Maryland. "My worry is they may be in the midst of a wave of sympathy for Hezbollah that extends" throughout the Arab world. And as Israel moves its troops into Lebanese, the worst may be yet to come. For Israel, the United States and these Arab countries, everything depends on a terrible defeat for Hezbollah, whose currency in the Muslim world is based first on having forced Israel to withdraw from Lebanon in 1990 and now on sending rockets of fear into major Israeli cities like Haifa, which increasingly resemble ghost towns as residents evacuate further south. Despite the degradation of 11 days of bombing and shelling, this result cannot be achieved without a full-scale and possibly costly Israeli invasion of Lebanon or the intervention of a division of heavily armed foreign troops organized by Rice. Anthony Cordesman, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a widely respected Middle East security analyst in Washington, wrote Friday that an Israeli invasion is a "strategic trap" and that a strong international force, while potentially effective, is "very unlikely" to happen because of Lebanese politics. Congressional Middle East analyst Kenneth Katzman said he is optimistic that Israel will defeat Hezbollah, which will have a dramatic effect on Middle East politics. But he said many people are concerned that by destroying Lebanon's infrastructure, "there is a danger that Israel will overplay its hand and build support for Hezbollah" in Lebanon and the rest of the Arab world. Amatzia Baram, a professor of Middle Eastern studies at the University of Haifa in Israel, said Friday that if Hezbollah is not soundly defeated, its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, will become the new Gamal Abdul Nasser, the former Egyptian president who in the 1950s and 1960s united most of the Arab world against Israel. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> See what's inside the new Yahoo! Groups email. http://us.click.yahoo.com/3EuRwD/bOaOAA/yQLSAA/BRUplB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> *************************************************************************** Berdikusi dg Santun & Elegan, dg Semangat Persahabatan. Menuju Indonesia yg Lebih Baik, in Commonality & Shared Destiny. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ppiindia *************************************************************************** __________________________________________________________________________ Mohon Perhatian: 1. 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