Inti dari tulisan ini adalah:
Ada kemiripan dalam posisi Presiden SBY dengan Presiden AS George Bush
(senior). George Bush yang populer dan menang dalam perang melawan Saddam
Hussein (Irak) tahun 1991, ternyata bisa dikalahkan oleh kandidat belum
terkenal ("belum berpengalaman," kalau meminjam istilah SBY). Kandidat itu
adalah Gubernur Arkansas Bill Clinton.
Nah, jadi bukan tidak mungkin, popularitas SBY hasil kemasan citra (kreasi Fox
Indonesia dkk) itu juga bisa diredam oleh kandidat lain, jika bisa menghantam
titik-titik lemah SBY dalam hal ekonomi (utang yang makin menggila, dsb).
Banyak hal-hal kritis yang tidak dikerjakan SBY, yang seharusnya bisa digunakan
untuk meruntuhkan istana pasir citra gemerlapnya.
Tentunya kandidat penantang harus bisa menghadirkan alternatif rancangan
ekonomi yang lebih meyakinkan.
Memilih SBY adalah memilih status quo.
Bagi saya sendiri, memilih SBY adalah memilih fatamorgana. Kelihatannya indah,
tetapi ternyata hanya uap di padang pasir.
Atau minum obat penghilang rasa sakit untuk mengobati kanker. Rasa sakit akan
hilang untuk beberapa saat, tetapi kanker terus merambat!
Satrio
=====================
(dikutip dari milis tetangga):
Dear Fellow Indonesians:
President SBY vs. US President 41.
In the 90’s there was a very popular President in the USA with a great resume.
He was a navy pilot during the world war II, shot down by Japanese forces and
was able to survive floating in the pacific ocean and rescued. When he came
back home, he was greeted as a hero. Then he was appointed to be Ambassador for
China. Before he finished his term he was called to lead the secret service
becoming CIA director. He then ran for President of the USA but he lost in the
Primary. He was picked by his adversary from the same party to be his running
mate, and he became a Vice President.
After 8 years became a Vice President, he ran for President for the 2nd times,
and he won. In 1991, he faced the biggest challenge of his Presidency and he
ended up leading a war against the late President of Iraq, Saddam Hussein for
invading Kuwait. He did it successfully. He was not only popular at home in the
USA but also around the world. This man was President George H.W. Bush (the
Daddy Bush). In 1992, he faced re-election for his Presidency.
I remember then that there was not even a single person from Republican Party
who dared to challenge President Bush. He was that popular. Meanwhile from
Democrat Party, there were so many Presidential candidates and one of them was
the unknown, unpopular young governor from Arkansas named Bill Clinton.
You can compare the popularity of President Bush in the 90’s with President SBY
at the present time in Indonesia. The question to ask is what, how and why then
that this unknown, unpopular Governor of Arkansas was able to BEAT a very
popular President?
Some of my political colleagues argued that the economy in the USA during
President Bush 41 was stupid and Bill Clinton was able to articulate that issue
before the American people. Well, the current Indonesia’s economy is stupid
ever even worse compared to the situation then in the USA during President Bush
41.
SBY is now popular than ever and the chance for him to win the reelection is
much greater than before the last general election. It puzzles me that none of
these Presidential candidates dare to challenge SBY on this issue. There are
many critical issues that have been left in the back burner by SBY. That is
undeniable fact! Look at the details!
Those issues can change perception and influence people who are to vote. This
is where campaign strategy plays its major role in winning Presidential
election contest. I personally and respectfully disagree with the notion that
it is not the cult of personality or, the money that will capture the seat of
Presidency, but it is the issue. The question now is who dares to challenge SBY
on the issue and present an alternative and comprehensive plan to address and
resolve those critical issues.
SBY Presidency:
I have stated that President SBY is a better President than perhaps the other
Presidents Indonesia has ever had, except President Soekarno being the Founding
Father of the country. However; looking at his record for the last 5 years in
office, his accomplishments are too insignificant to make a meaningful change
in Indonesia. For the last 5 years, Indonesia’s domestic debts are mounting up
bigger than FOREIGN DEBTS. Prior to 1997, Indonesia’s domestic debts was
virtually zero or very small.
Yes, there was 3% economic growth and at some point was even 7%. But what was
it as a result of President SBY’s sole economic policy, or it was simply a pure
luck of timing that supply met the demand for Indonesia? Or, was it because the
world economic situation that indirectly benefited Indonesia economic growth or
at best, combination of all?
Prof. Dr. Kuncoro Dorodjatun on behalf of the Indonesian government came to the
US to promote this issue, 7% economic growth to encourage foreign investors to
look at Indonesia. As he stated, this 7% growth was a phenomenon for Indonesia.
I confronted him by stating that even 7% economic growth for Indonesia is
insignificant in respect to Indonesia’s massive debts, massive unemployment and
millions people still living under poverty. It is just a drop of water in an
empty drum (not bucket).
As far as President SBY leadership is concerned, he is excellent in many ways
but still within the scope of reacting the market and instead of leading the
market.
Look at how he reacted in response to rise of fuel price. He raised domestic
fuel price concurrently in his anticipation to compensate his potentially
monstrous budget deficit (APBN). Then when the fuel price went down, he
re-acted it again to lower the domestic fuel price to calm down his people. So,
his policy is again within the scope of following and re-acting the market. To
me, that is not a true and great leader. A true leader will make a policy and
execute the policy to LEAD the market, to influence the market and not to
follow or re-act the market. For the last 5 years, that is how I saw President
SBY did. He carefully took his time to react and followed the market.
THE DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS, when it comes to SBY presidency and his 5 years
accomplishments.
Berdasarkan APBN 2008 dan 2009, kalian tahu nggak jumalah pendapatan Indonesia
seluruhnya dan jumlah pengeluaranya? Kemudian bandingkan angka-angka itu dengan
kemampuan Indonesia untuk bisa membayar hutang dalam dan luar negeri Indonesia?
Penerimaan:
Tahun 2008, jumlah pendapatan Indonesia sebesar Rp.895 trilliyun.
Tahun 2009, jumlah penpadatan Indonesia sebsar Rp.848.6 trilliyun
Pengeluaran:
Tahun 2008, jumlah pengeluaraan Indonesia sebesar Rp.989.5 trilliyun.
Tahun 2009, jumlah pengeluaran Indonesia sebesar Rp.988.1 trilliyun.
Sekarang kita hitung saja ya dengan kalkulasi anak SD, nggak usah dengan
hitungan seorang ekonom genius seperti Prof. Dr. Boediono (Boss BI yang
sekarang jadi cawapres):
Kita hitung yang tahun 2009 saja ya...
* Hutang dalam dan luar negeri Indonesia sebesar Rp.1.667 trilliyun
* Pendapatan Indonesia sebesar (Penyesuain APBN) Rp.848.6 trillyun
* Pengeluaran Indonesia sebesar (Penyesuain APBN) Rp.988.1 trilliyun
Dari pengeluaran dan pendapatan saja sudah MINUS, terus dari mana Indonesia
akan punya uang sisa untuk bisa melunasi hutang DALAM dan LUAR NEGERI-nya?
Kalau mau teliti lagi mengamati rincian pengeluaran diAPBN 2009, memang ada
pembayaran HUTANG tapi hanya BUNGA-nya saja, (principalnya nggak dibayar), sbb:
* Pembayaran bunga LUAR NEGERI sebesar, Rp. 37.8 trilliyun.
* Pembayarn bunga DALAM NEGERI sebesar, Rp. 70.1 trilliyun.
Belum lagi hutang-hutang yang Indonesia miliki dengan beberapa banks-banks dan
creditor International lain seperti:
1. Sama anggota 18 negara PARIS CLUB saja sudah diperpanjang 40 tahun? Terus
kalau cuma dibayar bunganya, kapan tuh bisa melunasi principalnya?
2. Terus hutang sama Asian Development Bank atau ADB, kapan bayarnya?
3. Terus hutang Indonesia sama JBIC (Japan bank International Cooperation)
berapa dan kapan bisa bayarnya?
4. Belum lagi hutang Indonesia sama Bank Dunia atau the World Bank? Kapan tuh
dan berapa lama Indonesia akan bisa melunasai?
Terus kapan Indonesia akan bisa MELUNASI HUTANG-hutang NYA? Orang jawa bilang:
sampek duuooobbbooolll... ya nggka bisa-bisa, kenapa?:
1). Hutang Indonesia dalam bentuk US Dollar, Yen dan EURO. Nilai pembayaranya
semakin hari semakin besar dan meningkat karena nilai Rupiah-nya semakin rendah
dibanding nilai DOLLAR, YEN dan EURO. Akibatnya orang kecil, petani dan rakyat
Indonesia harus lebih bekerja keras, banting tulang sampek elek untuk bisa
bayar hutang negara yang semakin membenkak setinggi gunung Hilmalaya dan seluas
lautan pacific. Inilah legacy generasi tua yang nggak bisa ngurusi kekayaan
alam Indonesia.
2). Karena nilai pembayaran hutang-hutang Indonesia semakin tahun semakin besar
jumlahnya, maka dana APBN banyak terserap untunk bayar hutang-hutang ini dan
akhibatnya Indonesia tidak memiliki DANA sia atau cadangan yang bisa dipakai
untuk mengeluarkan semacam STIMULUS PACKAGE untuk bisa merangsang perkembangan
ekonomi dalam negeri.
Akibatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dalam negeri menjadi lesu, aktivitas
export-import menjadi berkurang dan kemampuan Indonesia untuk hisa membayar
hutang luar negeri semakin menurun. Lemahnya kegiatan export menjadikan nilai
nilai rupiah menurun due to lack of market capitalization and domestic equity
market dan menguatnya nilai valuta asing (Dollar, yen dan Euro), menjadikan
hutang Indonesia semakin besar nilainya karena perbedaan currency yang semakin
besar yang harus di bayar dengan RUPIAH. Semakin tahun dan semakin lama bagi
Indonesia untuk bisa melunasi hutang-hutang itu, jumlah hutang itu setiap
tahunya bukannya menurun malah meningkat nilainya…..(kasihan banget deh kalo
dipikirkan...).
3). Dari tahun 1997 sampai tahun 2009, sebenarnya ada nilai SURPLUS dari export
Indonesia yang rata-rata pertahunya tuh sebesar Rp.255 trilliyun. Kalau Rp 255
trilliyun dikalikan 12 tahun, mestinya cadangan devisa negara tuh paling tidak
sebesar Rp. 3.060 trilliyun. Eh..., tahu-tahu BI baru-barusan bilang cadangan
devisa negara Indonesia tuh cuma Rp. 51 milyar US dollar atau sekitar Rp.501
trillyun. Terus kemana tuh larinya Rp. 2.500 trilliyun? Bocor kemana ya...???
Inipun terjadi dalam President SBY watch?
Masih banyak deh kalau mau dibahas satu persatu-satu. President SBY tuh menurut
fakta yang ada tidak sehebat Presiden yang banyak orang Indonesia bayangkan.
Lihat saja record dia selama 5 tahun jadi President dan lihat juga masaah
kritis yang masih dihadapai Indonesia yang sampai saat ini belum terpecahkan
bahkan malah memburuk....
The facts that SBY does not want you to know:
1. For the last 5 years, he has never balanced his budget (APBN), not even
a single year.
2. For the last 5 years, Indonesia’s debts are getting bigger, where
domestic debts are catching up and now bigger than foreign debts. Prior to
1997, Indonesia domestic debts are virtually Zero or, very small. *Tahun 2009,
hutang dalam dan luar negeri Indonesia membengkak menjadi Rp. 1.667 trilliun,
dimana Rp. 746 trilliyun hutang luar negeri dan Rp.920 trilliyun hutang dalam
negeri.
3. SBY claims to have paying off debts $7.6 billion with IMF, which is
true. But in doing so, he created over $17 billion new domestic debts in BONDS
or, known as SUN (Surat Utang Negara). He was not robbing Paul to Peter; he was
like robbing ACHONG-ACHONG in Indonesia to pay Peter. He robbed much bigger in
value about 2.5 times than the amount he paid off.
4. During the last 5 years, there is an average of Rp. 255 trillion Rupiah
surplus in export every year. If we multiply that in 5 years, Indonesia shall
have at least Rp. 1,275 trillion Rupiah reserved-funds or, Bank Devisa Negara.
Recently, BI (Bank Indonesia) stated that Indonesia had only Rp. 501 trillion
Rupiah sisa devisa negara. Where did the other Rp.774 trillion Rupiah go? This
happened during SBY and Boediono watch.
5. For the last 5 years, SBY administration spent average of 70% the
entire national budget or APBN to pay for the central government operation
cost. The rest, which was only 30% was given or spent for the 33 provincial
governments. Now, how much do you think the municipality government at CITY and
DISTRICT level will receive these remaining funds? It must be very small. That
is why the road in Bandung just like “bule madrotter” said in one of the
Indonesian popular blogs: has been neglected because the lack of funds. I was
in Bandung last April 2009. Di Bandung bukan hanya banyak lubang berjalan, tapi
juga banyak lubang di jalan! That is one of President SBY’s legacies.
6. For the last 5 years, SBY did not lead. He just reacted and followed
the market. Look at how he reacted in response to rise of fuel price. He raised
domestic fuel price concurrently in his anticipation to compensate his
potentially monstrous budget deficit (APBN). Then when the fuel price went
down, he re-acted it again to lower the domestic fuel price to calm down his
people. So, his policy is again within the scope of following and re-acting the
market. To me, that is not a true and great leader. A true leader will make a
policy and execute the policy to LEAD the market, to influence the market and
not to follow or re-act the market. For the last 5 years, that is how I saw
President SBY did. He carefully took his time to react and followed the market.
The list goes on….
One good news for SBY though, the majority of Indonesia people do not really
care with the details. Secondly, there are continuing efforts by SBY and his
Presidential team members to conceal these facts from public discussion. That
is very helpful for SBY and enhances his chance to win the next Presidential
election unless….
Here are 5 questions to ask President SBY:
Selama 5 tahun, pernahkah SBY balance his budget APBN?
Selama 5 tahun, apakah yang pernah dia lakukan untuk mengurangi dan melunasi
hutang-hutang Indonesia? Kapan Indonesia akan bisa melunasi hutang-hutangnya?
Berapa generasi?
Selama 5 tahun, apa yang Presiden SBY lakukan untuk memperbaiki nilai currency
Rupiah yang semakin menurun dari tahun ke tahun selama 30 tahun?
Selama 5 tahun, apa yang dilakukan SBY untk mengurangi pengeluaran PEMERINTAH
PUSAT yang selama 5 tahun terakahir dalam pemerintahanya telah memakan
rata-rata 70% dari seluruh dana APBN, dan sisanya yang hanya 30% diturunkan ke
bawah yanf haris dibagi 33 propinsi? Kira-kira berapa dari sisa dana ini yang
akan diterima di tingkat Kabupaten, Kecamatan dan desa setelah diambil di
tingkat propinsi? Janga lupa, SBY-lah yang mengalakan autonomi daerah harus
maju terus tanpa dana yang cukup.
Terakhir, apa yang SBY lakukan untuk memecahkan macetnya lalu lintas dikota
Jakarta dan banjir tahunan yang sering minimpa Jakarta dimana dia sendiri tiap
hari lewati jalan dan melihat dengan mata kepala sendiri penderitaan rakyat
Jakarta akibat banjir musiman itu?
Re-electing SBY is at best maintaining status quo. I don’t know about you, but
I want to see a change, significant change in Indonesia. For the last 5 years,
SBY hasn’t yet delivered any significant change! What makes you think that he
will do differently for the next 5 years?
Chris Komari
Partai Masa Depan Indonesia Mandiri
futureindone...@yahoo.com
[Non-text portions of this message have been removed]
