Never in the history of Government had an estimate been anything but extremely low. The 1 trillion dollar price tag will be 4 or 5 trillion.
--- On Fri, 3/19/10, Publius Maximus <[email protected]> wrote: > From: Publius Maximus <[email protected]> > Subject: [OT] CBO Estimated Carry Big Uncertainties > To: "ProFox Email List" <[email protected]> > Date: Friday, March 19, 2010, 10:51 AM > http://bit.ly/cHXER1 > > - - - > The second scenario is much, much more likely to come to > fruition: > > "But perhaps the biggest risk that could cause the budget > impact to > diverge from the CBO estimates comes from Congress. The > estimates > assume that the legislation plays out as written over the > coming > decade, which would mean reining in the growth of payments > to doctors > and hospitals and implementing a tax on high-cost health > insurance > plans. > > "Those two policies are responsible for bringing in the > revenue and > cost savings that allow the plan to expand coverage to 32 > million more > Americans yet, according to the projections, bring down the > deficit. > > "But that falls apart if a future Congress finds the cuts > or taxes too > painful to handle and overturns them." > > That will fall apart faster than the Post suggests. > This Congress is > already debating a “doctor fix” that rescinds the > reimbursement cuts > to providers, even though the numbers they submitted to the > CBO rely > on those lower figures. The Post also fails to > identify the larger > risk with the so-called “Cadillac plan” tax, which is > that insurance > companies will simply stop offering those kinds of plans in > the > future. They will tailor their plans to avoid the > tax, and as a > result, the expected revenues from that tax will eventually > dissipate > — and probably much faster than anyone thinks. > > The CBO should have developed alternate cases for these > potential > outcomes, but in their defense, they’ve been asked to > score a fantasy > from the very beginning. The Post reminds > us that there are plenty > of reasons to take the CBO analysis with a Lot’s > Wife-sized grain of > salt, not the least of which is the fact that it depends on > Congress > to follow through on their pledges. > > This is the reason that incremental change makes a lot more > sense. It > eliminates the need to compound assumptions, and it’s > more reversible > when it fails. > - - - > > I note parenthetically that nothing -- NOTHING -- has ever > been as > cheap or cheaper than a CBO estimate. In fact, most items > have been in > reality much more expensive than when guestimated by the > CBO. > > This monstrous bill must be defeated. > > - Publius > > -- > > "It ought never to be forgotten, that a firm union of this > country, > under an efficient government, will probably be an > increasing object > of jealousy to more than one nation of Europe; and that > enterprises to > subvert it will sometimes originate in the intrigues of > foreign > powers, and will seldom fail to be patronized and abetted > by some of > them. Its preservation, therefore ought in no case that can > be > avoided, to be committed to the guardianship of any but > those whose > situation will uniformly beget an immediate interest in the > faithful > and vigilant performance of the trust." [Federalist Papers > #59] > > _______________________________________________ > Post Messages to: [email protected] > Subscription Maintenance: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profox > OT-free version of this list: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profoxtech > Searchable Archive: http://leafe.com/archives/search/profox > This message: > http://leafe.com/archives/byMID/profox/[email protected] > ** All postings, unless explicitly stated otherwise, are > the opinions of the author, and do not constitute legal or > medical advice. This statement is added to the messages for > those lawyers who are too stupid to see the obvious. > _______________________________________________ Post Messages to: [email protected] Subscription Maintenance: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profox OT-free version of this list: http://leafe.com/mailman/listinfo/profoxtech Searchable Archive: http://leafe.com/archives/search/profox This message: http://leafe.com/archives/byMID/profox/[email protected] ** All postings, unless explicitly stated otherwise, are the opinions of the author, and do not constitute legal or medical advice. This statement is added to the messages for those lawyers who are too stupid to see the obvious.
