There has to be some a priori knowledge of the two teams' strengths.
Henry Rich
On 1/31/2012 4:46 AM, Linda Alvord wrote:
> Challenge 5 Super Bowl Supposition PLEASE DO NOT RESPOND UNTIL 2/6/2012 12
> am EST
>
>
>
> As the Super Bowl approaches, suppose it will be decided like baseball. Four
> of seven games determines a winner. Also suppose that the NFL has won the
> first game.
>
>
>
> Simulate results of 2000000 series and provide the number of times the NFL
> wins in 4 5 6 7 games. If the AFL wins this Extended Super Bowl
> Contest, the result is an 8 . Create a 2000000 item list of number of
> games necessary to determine a winner and provide a frequency distribution.
>
>
>
> fd=: [: /:~ ({. , #)/.~
>
> fd (expression for 2000000 trials)
>
> 4 249561
> 5 374865
> 6 373851
> 7 312603
> 8 689120
>
> ]games=:fd n,.2000000$6
>
> 4 249301
> 5 376266
> 6 375281
> 7 311189
> 8 687963
>
> ]prob=:(4+i.5),. (1{"1 games)%2000000
>
> 4 0.124651
> 5 0.188133
> 6 0.18764
> 7 0.155595
> 8 0.343982
>
>
>
> ]+/(1{"1 games)%2000000
>
> 1
>
>
>
> Now, confirm that your results are reasonable with a theoretical argument.
>
>
>
> Also, enjoy the Super Bowl!
>
>
>
> Linda
>
>
>
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