FYI

05:12 PM ET

Ankara attack a sign of things to come?

By Soner Cagaptay, Special to CNN

Soner Cagaptay is a Beyer Family fellow at The Washington Institute and author 
of 'Turkey Rising: The 21st Century's First Muslim Power.' You  can follow him 
@sonercagaptay. The views expressed are his own.

Today's attack against the U.S. Embassy in Ankara suggests Turkey's radical 
leftist Marxist groups, as small as they might be, could be mobilizing against 
America.

Turkey's political landscape continues to bear the vestiges of violent leftist 
movements from the 1970s, laden with deep-rooted Cold War-style 
anti-Americanism. These small but active movements have rallied against the 
deployment of U.S. and NATO Patriot missiles in southern Turkey, and are 
believed to have been behind a January 21 protest aimed at Patriot teams 
arriving in the port of Iskenderun.

Although such groups operate at the political margin, they could have an 
outsized impact. Iranian and Russian media have covered these incidents 
extensively, no doubt in order to feed into anti-NATO sentiment and to increase 
the political costs for Ankara supporting the Syrian opposition. Indeed, small 
Turkish Marxist groups could even emerge as nodes of broader opposition to 
Ankara's effective policy of working to help oust the al-Assad regime.

But there is also a sectarian dimension at play. The al-Assad regime is 
supported by Syria's minority Alawite sect of Islam. Turkey, meanwhile, is home 
to hundreds of thousands of Alawites. Some Turkish citizens of Alawite origin 
are unabashedly pro-al-Assad, and they have also been disproportionately 
represented among Turkey's radical leftist movements, including the 
Revolutionary Peoples Liberation Party-Front (DHKP-C), the radical terrorist 
group that Turkish police believe was behind today's attacks against the U.S. 
Embassy.

But there is an even greater risk: Turkey is home to another traditionally 
leftist and historically (in the Cold War context) Marxist-leaning branch of 
Islam, the Alevis, with followers believed to number around 10 million people.

The Alevis and Alawites are different groups, despite phonetically similar 
names (both Alawites and Alevis derive their names from their reverence for 
Ali, a close relative of the Muslim prophet Mohammed, but they represent 
different and distinct strains of Islam).

Still, Ankara's Syria policy could rally the Alevis behind a hard leftist 
agenda, one opposed to the United States. Like the Alawites, the Alevis are 
disproportionately represented in Turkey's Marxist groups, including DHKP-C.

It is clear that further NATO and U.S. deployments in Turkey could mobilize the 
Alawites and Alevis to adopt a more visceral anti-American position, 
representing another area of  spillover into Turkey from the Syria conflict.

Communism is dead, but part of Turkey's radical left could be rising from its 
ashes.

 




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