http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2011/02/15/AR2011021504306.html?wpisrc=nl_pmopinions
The future of a democratic Egypt
.
By Condoleezza Rice
Wednesday, February 16, 2011
As I watched Hosni Mubarak address the Egyptian people last week, I thought to
myself, "It didn't have to be this way."
In June 2005, as secretary of state, I arrived at the American University in
Cairo to deliver a speech at a time of growing momentum for democratic change
in the region. Following in the vein of President George W. Bush's second
inaugural address, I said that the United States would stand with people who
seek freedom. This was an admission that the United States had, in the Middle
East more than any other region, sought stability at the expense of democracy,
and had achieved neither. It was an affirmation of our belief that the desire
for liberty is universal - not Western, but human - and that only fulfillment
of that desire leads to true stability.
For a time it seemed that Egypt's leadership was responding - not so much to us
but to their own people, who clamored for change. Egyptians had just witnessed
the retreat of Syrian troops in Lebanon and the election of a new government;
the purple-fingered free elections in Iraq; and the emergence of new leadership
in Palestine. A few months later, freer if not fully free presidential
elections followed raucous civic debate in Egypt's cafes and online. Though
Mubarak's party won overwhelmingly, it seemed a kind of Rubicon had been
crossed.
But shortly thereafter Mubarak reversed course. Parliamentary elections were a
mockery, the hated "emergency law" remained in place and opposition figures
such as Ayman Nour were imprisoned again. Egyptians seethed - anger that would
eventually explode into Tahrir Square. The lesson to others in the region
should be to accelerate long-delayed political and economic reforms.
Now the Mubarak regime is gone. There are understandable fears that these
events will not turn out so well. The Muslim Brotherhood represents the most
organized political force in Egypt. Mubarak always said that the choice was
between him and the Brotherhood, and he pursued policies that fulfilled that
prophecy. While many decent, more secular political leaders were harassed and
jailed by the regime, the Brotherhood organized in the mosques and provided
social services the regime could not. It will take time to level the playing
field.
The United States knows democracy to be a long process - untidy, disruptive and
even chaotic at times. I do not mean to understate the challenge to American
interests posed by an uncertain future in Egypt. For all his failings, Mubarak
maintained a cold peace with Israel, which became a pillar of Egyptian foreign
policy. He supported moderate Palestinian leadership and helped keep Hamas at
bay. But he could never do so fully because he was afraid of "the street."
Authoritarians don't know or respect their people, and they fear them. The
United States has taken a good deal of public blame from friends who secretly
supported our policies - fueling hatred against us while shielding themselves.
We cannot determine the foreign policy preferences of Egypt's next government.
But we can influence them through our ties to the military, links to civil
society, and a promise of economic assistance and free trade to help improve
the lot of the Egyptian people.
The most important step now is to express confidence in the future of a
democratic Egypt. Egyptians are not Iranians, and it is not 1979. Egypt's
institutions are stronger and its secularism deeper. The Brotherhood is likely
to compete for the writ of the people in free and fair elections. They should
be forced to defend their vision for Egypt. Do they seek the imposition of
sharia law? Do they intend a future of suicide bombings and violent resistance
to the existence of Israel? Will they use Iran as a political model? Al-Qaeda?
Where will Egypt find jobs for its people? Do they expect to improve the lives
of Egyptians cut off from the international community through policies designed
to destabilize the Middle East?
Much has been made of Hamas's 2006 electoral "victory" and the strength of
Hezbollah in Lebanon. Many factors set these cases apart. But even in these
examples, extremists have struggle when faced with the challenges of
governance.
What comes next is up to Egyptians. Many are young and full of revolutionary
fervor. Democratic politics will be challenged by tenets of radical political
Islam. This struggle is playing out across the region - in Iraq, Lebanon and
especially Turkey, where decades of secularism have given way to the
accommodation of religious people in the public square. In Egypt, Christians
and followers of other religions will also have to find a place and a voice.
The next months, indeed years, are bound to be turbulent. Yet that turbulence
is preferable to the false stability of autocracy, in which malignant forces
find footing in the freedom gap that silences democratic voices.
This is not 1979, but it is not 1989 either. The fall of communism unleashed
patriots who had long regarded the United States as a "beacon of freedom." Our
history with the peoples of the Middle East is very different. Still, the
United States should support the forces of democracy, not because they will be
friendlier to us but because they will be friendlier to their own people.
Democratic governments, including our closest allies, do not always agree with
us. Yet they share our most fundamental belief - that people must be governed
by consent. It is as true today as it was when I said in 2005 that the fear of
free choices can no longer justify the denial of liberty. We have only one
choice: to trust that in the long arc of history those shared beliefs will
matter more than the immediate disruptions that lie ahead and that, ultimately,
our interests and ideals will be well served.
The writer was secretary of state from 2005 to 2009.
This Story
a.. In Egypt, real politics is about to begin
b.. The future of a democratic Egypt
c.. Channeling Egypt's energy of the crowd into positive change
d.. The upsides of Egypt's revolution
e.. The GOP loves freedom, but not for Egypt
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