Indonesia predicts reprisals against Western targets
Tom Allard
May 3, 2011

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Bali ... injured Australians wait to be flown home.

Bali ... injured Australians wait to be flown home. Photo: Kate Geraghty

INDONESIA is bracing itself for retaliatory terrorist acts aimed at Westerners 
as it emerged that Umar Patek, the country's most wanted militant, was arrested 
this year in the same Pakistani city where Osama bin Laden was killed.

As Indonesian victims of attacks - which were inspired and financed by al-Qaeda 
- expressed hopes of an easing in extremist activities, the head of Indonesia's 
National Anti-Terrorism Agency told the Herald he ''definitely'' expected an 
attack.

''Every terror action [from the perspective of violent Islamists] will be 
replied by another attack,'' Ansyaad Mbai said.
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Indonesia, which has the world's biggest Muslim population, has battled 
terrorism since 2000, when the terrorist group Jemaah Islamiah unleashed 
co-ordinated bomb attacks on churches on Christmas Eve.

That act was inspired and financed by al-Qaeda, as were the first Bali attacks 
that killed 202 people, including 88 Australians, in 2002.

Amrozi, the ''smiling bomber'', later revealed that the cell was inspired by 
the September 11 attacks, believing their success was proof of divine 
endorsement for violent jihadism.

Al-Qaeda provided $US50,000 to pay for the safe house and explosives used in 
the first Marriott Hotel bombing attack in Jakarta in August 2003.

Since those attacks, there has been little evidence of al-Qaeda's direct 
involvement in terrorist acts in Indonesia.

But the fact that Umar Patek, a leading figure in the first Bali bombings and a 
former senior Jemaah Islamiah operative, was arrested in Abbottabad in late 
January and that bin Laden was killed in the same hill town a few months later 
raises new questions about continuing links.

The US President, Barack Obama, said US counter-terrorism operatives had been 
following a lead about bin Laden's whereabouts since last August. That lead 
brought US authorities to a heavily fortified compound in Abbottabad which was 
closely monitored for months.

''It's possibly linked but we don't know for a fact,'' said Sidney Jones, an 
expert on terrorism with the International Crisis Group in Jakarta. ''Patek 
could have been monitored because of the investigation into bin Laden. It may 
have been an effort by him to get funding.''

Mr Ansyaad was coy when asked about links between Patek and bin Laden. ''What's 
clear is that Umar Patek's purpose was to go to Afghanistan,'' he said.

Even so, Indonesia's Foreign Minister, Marty Natalegawa, when first asked in 
late March about Patek's arrest, declined to confirm it and said he did not 
want to comment further because it might jeopardise further arrests.

Mr Natalegawa was speaking at a joint news conference with the Australian 
Foreign Affairs Minister, Kevin Rudd, and seemed annoyed that, moments earlier, 
Mr Rudd had become the first government official to confirm the arrest of Patek.

Whatever the direct links between al-Qaeda and the present crop of Indonesian 
jihadists, bin Laden remains an abiding inspiration. ''Al-Qaeda as an idea 
still has a lot of resonance in jihadist circles,'' said Greg Fealy of the 
Australian National University, an expert on Indonesian extremist movements.

Ken Ward, a former Indonesia analyst at the Office of National Assessments, 
said bin Laden's death would not deter Indonesian extremists. ''Bin Laden has 
proven he was prepared to die for the cause. He has proven he was prepared to 
become a martyr. He will live on as a symbol.''

Despite great success in disrupting terrorist groups, Indonesia has suffered 
from multiple attacks, including a recent rise in violent extremism after a 
hiatus from 2005 to 2009. Less than two weeks ago, a plot to detonate a 
150-kilogram bomb tethered to a gas pipeline near a Jakarta church during Good 
Friday services was foiled. If it had succeeded, it could have caused more 
carnage than the first Bali bombings.

Nasir Abbas, a former senior member of Jemaah Islamiah, said the leader of the 
Good Friday plot, Pepi Fernando, was motivated by al-Qaeda.

''Pepi Fernando carried out his action in response to the recent Osama 
statement calling for more attacks,'' said Mr Abbas, who now works with 
Indonesian anti-terrorism forces.

In recent years, Indonesian militants have turned away from attacking 
foreigners and exploiting international themes of oppression of Islam, instead 
concentrating on local targets and issues.

But Ms Jones said any response to bin Laden's killing would probably target 
''symbols of the US and the West''.

It was a sentiment amplified by Mr Abbas. ''I predict his death will trigger 
retaliation in Indonesia,'' he said. ''The target will be Western interests.''

The chilling assessments tempered the happiness and cautious optimism of Wayan 
Sudiana, whose wife died in the first Bali bombings, killed as she passed the 
Sari Club on a motorbike.

''I am grateful,'' he said. ''I hope it will mean the end of it. No more bombs 
anywhere in the world.''

Read more: 
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/indonesia-predicts-reprisals-against-western-targets-20110502-1e58l.html#ixzz1LCkXLuKz




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