We have had 50+ messages in the threat on the ballot proposal from Google but 
it seems like it has gone somewhat off course and gotten stuck on a tangent.

Going back to the original topic, I think there is a lack of clarity on why 
this is being proposed.  Ryan Sleevi, in an email in the thread, provided some 
links to older emails.  Many of them were from before I was involved with the 
Forum, so I went back and read through them.

Back in https://cabforum.org/pipermail/public/2013-November/002493.html, Gerv 
wrote:

"The problem with long-life certs is not any of the above; it's the
reduced agility of the certificate system as a whole. Every time we make
an improvement, we have to wait 5 years and 3 months before we can rely
on every certificate having been issued under the new rules or with the
new feature. That's too long."

Since then certificates have been limited to 39 months, so that time has gone 
down somewhat.  Assuming CAs require at least three months notice for changes 
(and I think most of us would like more than than), the delay between approving 
a change and it being universally deployed is three and a half years.  Assuming 
we all agree that subscribers expect the certificates they already have to 
continue to work until they expire, then the only way to increase the rate of 
change is to reduce the maximum duration of validity.

Ryan's email from last week echoes what Gerv said 3+ years ago.  Ryan wrote:

"The validity period of certificates represents the single greatest impediment 
towards improving the security of the Web PKI. This is because it sets the 
upper-bound on when legacy behaviours may be safely deprecated, while setting a 
practical lower-bound for how long hacks and workarounds need to be carried 
around by clients."

I think the real question here is whether we, as the Forum, think that the 
current state of things is such that having a 3.5 year (or longer) deprecation 
period is acceptable or whether this number needs to come down to something 
much shorter.  My inference from reading Ryan's emails is that Google thinks 
that sixteen months is about the longest that any deprecation period should 
last and, of that time, the concept to GA/stable release cycle for CAs should 
take no longer than three months.

The real questions, in my mind are:

(1) How long is reasonable for taking something from concept to production?  

(2) What is the longest reasonable deprecation window?

To find one possible answer to #1, I looked at the Chromium release schedule.  
The standard there is 54 days (about 8 weeks) from branch to stable.  Any time 
to handle "intent to implement"/"intent to ship" and actually implement the 
code is before this window.  I know many dev teams use two week "sprints" for 
planning and are usually booked at least a couple of sprints ahead, so let's 
call this six weeks.  Based on this, I would say the minimum reasonable period 
for concept to production should be about 14 weeks.  This assumes a very 
aggressive release cycle.  It does not take into account that many CAs are 
using third party software, which means that integration time will be needed if 
code changes are required -- call this another eight weeks of planning, 
testing, and migration.  So 22 weeks is probably the shortest reasonable answer 
for #1.

I think the answer to #2 is the lynchpin.  Certificates can be quite complex to 
install on some systems, frequently requiring downtime of the system.  How 
often should this be required?

Thanks,
Peter
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