Source >
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn9801-global-water-crisis-looms-larger.html

8/21/06

One-third of the world’s population is short of water
– a situation we were not predicted to arrive at until
2025 – according to a disturbing new report on the
state of the world’s water supplies.

Squeezing more out of every raindrop that falls on
poverty-stricken regions of Africa and Asia is key to
the survival of the world’s poorest and most
malnourished people, researchers say. 

The report by the International Water Management
Institute in Colombo, Sri Lanka, was released on
Monday in Stockholm at the start of World Water Week.
It paints a bleak picture of global access to fresh
water and warns that the world cannot carry on
complacently using water as if it will never run out. 

“Business as usual is not an option,” says David
Molden of the institute, and coordinator of the
report, called Insights from the Comprehensive
Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture. 

It concludes that one-third of the world’s population
now suffers water scarcity, a situation that has
materialised 20 years sooner than predicted by an
assessment five years ago. 

Breaking point
The reason for the discrepancy is that earlier
predictions were based on a country-by-country
analysis. The latest figures stem from a more detailed
analysis of natural water basins. 

Several, such as the Yellow River basin in north-east
China, which is effectively the country’s “bread
basket”, are exhausted to the point where they cannot
support any more people or activity. 

Although some water sources feeding big cities and
industrialised economies can barely meet demand, the
researchers point out that cheapest and most efficient
gains in water efficiency are ones which benefit the
poor most, through increasing storage and utilisation
of rainfall, which at present goes to waste. 

The report says highlights the benefits of increasing
the efficiency of rain-watered agriculture, rather
than irrigation. It is the fastest, cheapest way to
end malnutrition, raise poor farmers out of poverty,
stop invasion of natural habitats and halt spiralling
depletion of the world’s fresh water, the report says.


Whereas expansion of irrigation to feed agriculture
often requires large capital investment and building
work which takes years, many of the steps to improve
rain-fed agriculture can be taken now, and are very
cheap, the researchers explain. 

"Bang for your buck"
Compiled over five years with input from about 700
experts, the report says that such steps could double
or even triple food production in sub-Saharan Africa
and southeast Asia, where 800 million people are
classed as malnourished. It would increase
productivity from each raindrop by the same amount.
“That’s the best bang for your buck in terms of
poverty reduction and productivity gains from water,”
says Molden.

The environment would be the other major winner from
making rain-fed agriculture more productive, since it
would slow the invasion of natural habitats by farmers
whose land has become barren. 

If the proposed plans are implemented and they work,
rain-fed agriculture would only need to expand by 10%
into natural habitats by 2050, the report concludes. 

No plough
The practical steps needed to increase efficiency of
rain-fed agriculture are remarkably simple, and
essentially mean storing more water when it rains
instead of letting it escape. They include catching
water in plastic tubular bags that resemble
swimming-pool-sized water beds, and piping roof water
from gutters into storage receptacles. 

Other steps include building small hollows and
embankments alongside drainage channels to capture and
store water, and building ditches to capture rainwater
that spills off roads.

And by planting seeds without ploughing, soil is
better able to hold on to moisture. Molden says that
such techniques developed in the semi-arid Brazilian
region of Cerredos won this year's World Food Prize
and could easily be adapted for use by farmers in
Africa’s Savannahs. 

Drought insurance
Crucially, these relatively simple measures could
allow farmers to survive short periods of drought
which at present destroy their harvests, reducing
their risks of failure. “If you don‘t have water in
two weeks in the Sahel region of Africa, you’ll have
crop failure, and at present that happens every four
or five years so people don’t risk rain-fed methods,”
says Molden. “Our idea is to have water set aside for
an ‘unrainy’ day as your insurance against drought,”
he says. 

Couple that with development of better-yielding,
hardier crops and the route out of poverty could
accelerate still faster. Results presented a month ago
in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, at the Africa Rice
Congress showed that farmers planting a
higher-yielding rice in Benin earned enough extra
money to send their children to school and to pay for
medical treatment when they became ill. “We’re saying
that water investment is that first step that will
lift people out of poverty,” says Molden, especially
if coupled with increased use of fertiliser. 

As to how it should happen, Molden says that
pan-African bodies such as the New Partnership for
Africa’s Development (NEPAD) established five years
ago to develop a technological “Marshall plan” to
modernise Africa, could get things moving at continent
level by prioritising resources for rain-fed farms,
especially as NEPAD is supported by the African Union
representing Africa’s heads of state. Then, the
projects could be followed through regionally and
locally. 

But action has to begin now. If nothing changes, twice
as much water will be needed to feed everyone by 2050.
But if the appropriate steps are taken now, global
growth in water use could actually slow by 50%, the
report finds.



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