You need to be careful with the incidence data if the Gaussian model isn't
appropriate, I assume that many counties have very low prevalence, so a
count data model may be more appropriate. I would check out INLA, it will do
Bayesian models over space and time, there are some tutorials/examples here: 
http://www.r-inla.org/examples <http://www.r-inla.org/examples>  

My 2 cents
Corey



-----
Corey Sparks
Assistant professor
Department of Demography
The University of Texas at San Antonio
501 West Cesar E Chavez Blvd
San Antonio TX 78207
Corey.sparks 'at' utsa.edu
210 458 3166 &lt;tel:210%20458%203166&gt;
Latitude: 29.423614  /  Longitude: -98.504282
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