The pythagorean gives us the following (run differential really doesn't say
enough because we need the totals).

Here's the pythagorean numbers

RSox RF: 861  RA: 720   (861^2)/(861^2 + 720^2) = .588 = 93.5 wins so far
Rays RF: 689  RA: 602    (689^2)/*689^2+602^2) = .567 = 90 wins so far.

So the Sox are about 4 games behind where they should be.  This is usually
attributed to bad luck.  Though I was contending a few years ago that Grady
Little had given us a differential of -10.

The Rays are 2 games behind where they should be.

If the Sox had the Rays pitching, they would have 106 wins.


On Mon, Sep 26, 2011 at 2:19 PM, Tom Salemi <[email protected]> wrote:

> Question for the stat folks...
>
> Red Sox have a Run Differential of +141
> Tampa Bay's is +87
>
> Yet, they're separated by just one game in the standings. Isn't that
> statistically tough to do?
>
> Only the Phillies and Yanks have better diffs by the way (+175 and +214,
> respectively)
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Sep 26, 2011 at 2:13 PM, Larry Rupp <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> 3 for us at the moment
>>
>> Sent from Larry's mobile device
>>
>> On Sep 26, 2011, at 1:50 PM, Dan DiBiase <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> So is the magic number 2 for the Sox?
>>
>> Dan D
>> Central NJ USA
>>
>>
>> ------------------------------
>> *From:* Matt & Olga McSorley <[email protected]>
>> *To:* "[email protected]" <[email protected]>
>> *Sent:* Monday, September 26, 2011 1:33 PM
>> *Subject:* Re: Rays "Charge"
>>
>> Actually, had they played even .300 ball in September, they'd have a shot
>> to clinch tonight.
>>
>> That hurts.
>>
>>  *From:* Tom Salemi <[email protected]>
>> *To:* <[email protected]>[email protected]
>> *Sent:* Monday, September 26, 2011 1:17 PM
>> *Subject:* Re: Rays "Charge"
>>
>> Nope, this is all Sox. Had they played .500 instead of .300 ball we would
>> have been all set.
>>
>> On Mon, Sep 26, 2011 at 11:24 AM, Dan DiBiase < <[email protected]>
>> [email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> I didn't realize this until this morning, but the Rays are actually only
>> 14-10 in September.... With all of the press on how great they
>> are playing, I would have thought they'd be 20 - 4 or something crazy.
>> They are playing good ball, but not great...
>>
>> Dan D
>> Central NJ USA
>>
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