Matthias Saou: > ... scary story about IPv4 space exhaustion... Personally, I'm predicting the IPocalypse for 2013. IANA runs out of IPv4 /8's next month, most RIR's including ARIN and APNIC are projecting to be out in H2 2011. For APNIC "out" means only allocating /22's, so complete exhaustion may be a ways out yet, but customers who don't want to do lots of NAT will be out of luck. Here in the US the 4G phone rollouts from T-mobile, Verizon etc. are already dual-stack-lite, meaning IPv6-mostly. (Native IPv6, carrier NAT44). Google, Facebook, and CNN are v6-enabled, more or less. ISOC just declared June 8th to be "world IPv6 test day".
I figure in 2013 about 15% of the internet will be IPv6-only, mostly in India, China, and mobile stuff. Probably 2015 before v6 is widespread, 2017 before it's 99% of traffic, and 2020 before the tier-1 ISP's declare a flag day and turn off IPv4 routing. Note that an IPv6-only router has about 1/18th the load of a dual-stack v4+v6 router, so while there was no incentive to deploy IPv6 historically, there is a very strong incentive to get rid of IPv4 transit (except tunneled) once v6 is common. I don't see the last IPv4 device disappearing until 2036 or so, giving v4 an impressive 55 year run as a network technology. I suggest avoid v6 prior to windows 7 SP1, redhat 6, summer's Mac OS-X 10.7 "lion", etc. The lesson of NANOG 42's IPv6 hour is that dual-stack-something on new software is the way to go; older software and v6-only would be a support nightmare. Note that Android and iOS are already v6-enabled, so the smartphones will be knocking on the door of your web servers via v6 any year now. > ... ip6tables doesn't support NAT. It's worse than ip6tables, the IAB and IETF hate NAT, refuse to define NAT66, and Really Want to return to the end-to-end transparency of the 1980's as their v6 model. See e.g. RFC-5902 from July 2010 for their most recent thinking. NAT64 (e.g. draft-IVI) isn't good for much beyond HTTP, and NAT46 is defunct (you can't fake DNS A for AAAA servers reliably at internet scale). So for 2012-2015 I expect the world to belong to 6rd (tunneled v6 over v4 from your broadband modem to your ISP) and dual-stack-lite (native v6 with carrier NAT44). The v6 transition is going to be like the transition from analog to digital TV: a little messy, a lot confusing, and new subscriber equipment all around. NAT fans who are faced with rolling out v6 should probably be looking at RFC-4193 unique local addresses (format FD+40 random+16 subnet+64 host bits) to meet their private / unroutable address needs. None of this helps Matthias's topology dilemma, alas. Some of us have it easier - I currently only have 1 layer of internal routing, so if I add v6 subnets on my firewalls, I'm good. I've already got my 2607:f388:1084::/48 divied up and routed externally, so I'm getting closer to production v6. -- Jim Leinweber State Laboratory of Hygiene, University of Wisconsin - Madison <[email protected]> 2810 Walton Commons West; phone +1 608 221 6281 PGP fp: 2E36 47BC DB03 57CE 86AD 19CC 41A1 9179 5C6B C8B9 _______________________________________________ rhelv6-list mailing list [email protected] https://www.redhat.com/mailman/listinfo/rhelv6-list
