Is the Greater Depression really inevitable? How bad will it be? Is there another side to the argument? Can it be avoided?
I suppose it's not absolutely inevitable. Perhaps friendly aliens will land on the roof of the White House and present the government with a magic technology that can undo all the damage it's done. But we live in a world of cause and effect where actions have consequences. That being the case, I expect truly serious financial and economic trouble. And the government will make it vastly worse by trying to "do something" instead of recognizing itself as the cause and backing off. I don't see any way out.
How bad will it be? In historical terms, the last depression was
relatively short and mild. The longest depression on record was the
Dark Ages. Residents of the old USSR and Mao's China suffered through a
depression that lasted decades. I'm not predicting it will be that bad,
if only because the U.S. has basically much sounder traditions and
institutions and vastly more accumulated capital. But it's hard to
overestimate how serious this could be. I sometimes joke that it will
likely be worse than even I think it will be.
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