I was able to spend a very enjoyable model rr'ing day last week with a friend while we were vacationing. We are both HO'ers but we both also see apparent trends with all hobbies, not JUST model railroading, regardless of scale. He made a very valid point, based on 40+ years as a modeler, mentor, member of various groups, etc. that I never thought much about but do completely agree with: model railroaders are very individualistic.
We join clubs, participate in operating sessions, attend train shows, meetings and conventions, and so on, but in the end, a modeler's activities are very personal and, more often than not, solitary. I know I am now far more "solo" than I was 10-15 years ago. As I age, I continually refocus my interests which also tend to support the above "solitary" theory. Now, factor in all of the outside "forces" that share our lives and you'll quickly see that, in the age group where the most potential growth lies (40-somethings), "free" time is nearly non-existent. This is not unique to model railroading; all hobbies that I am aware of, including railfanning and photography, have been declining over the years, some at a much faster rate than others due simply to attrition. For any entity to grow or maintain, it needs new entrants. Yes, it's true that the S and O scale modelers are aging, but so are HO and N. It's also true that market research indicates the 45-50 age range is the median for HO (up from 40 about 8-10 years ago) but it's MUCH higher for S and O (at least in the mid-60s for both; some say 70+ years old). Regardless of what scale we model in, available hobby time is a major hurdle to overcome. All of us are guilty of overflowing closets and boxes of unbuilt, never-to-be-operated equipment, regardless of scale. Eventually, we stop buying "more stuff" and may become content with just running what we have (or building that elusive layout). The future of model railroading, regardless of scale, has been lamented for at least the past 40 years. Predictions from the 1970s by scratchbuilders and craftsmen were very much gloom and doom because RTR items were becoming more available. What would they say now???? Despite the naysayers, all 4 "major" scales still survive. Will S or O be around in 10-15 years? Probably not in the form we now know. I predict that both scales will still be around but on a much smaller, more "individualistic" level whereby modelers are more focused on making detailed models for personal enjoyment. Will the current RTR manufacturers still be in business? Again, I have no clue . my crystal ball is too cloudy to see that far ahead. Debating yes or no should take no more time than flipping a TV channel. As to current offerings, if Lionel feels that producing N&W Y-3s and ACE diesels in S scale are good business decisions, more power to them. In the end, sales will prove them right or wrong, not opinions by those who wouldn't buy either product. There is no positive benefit from criticizing those who DO buy such items. If it's not for you, kindly pass it/them by and go on about your business. Do what pleases you, commend a fellow modeler for his work, even you don't agree with HIS modeling focus, and move on. The bottom line, regardless of scale, remains the same: without "new blood" entering the hobby, all of the scales will face their demise. It's just a matter of time. Enjoy YOUR scale while you can. Jim King Smoky Mountain Model Works, Inc. Ph. (828) 777-5619 <www.smokymountainmodelworks.com>
