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The Guardian [UK]
June 21, 2004

India and Pakistan cut risk of war 

Randeep Ramesh, south Asia correspondent

India and Pakistan agreed last night to set up a hotline to avoid a 
nuclear confrontation and to continue the ban on nuclear tests. 
Their diplomats met in New Delhi in what both sides said were moves 
to "prevent misunderstandings". 

The neighbours, which held nuclear tests weeks apart in 1998 and have 
come close to war twice since, said they now wanted to "promote a 
stable environment of peace and security". 

They reaffirmed their moratorium on nuclear tests. There was, 
however, a caveat: tests would resume if either side, in the 
interests of national sovereignty, decided that "extraordinary 
events" had "jeopardized its supreme interests". 

Both sides said they were advancing "step by step". "Whatever we 
agree to do, we must implement. That is the spirit," said Pakistan's 
foreign ministry spokesman, Masood Khan. 

Pakistan said it hoped that the nuclear talks and other tracks of 
dialogue would eventually lead to a summit between Pakistan's 
president, General Pervez Musharraf, and India's new prime minister, 
Manmohan Singh. 

"We are making preparations ... If they culminate in a summit, it 
will be a good thing," Mr Khan said. 

The extent of the rapprochement is remarkable given that the threat 
of nuclear war became real in the summer of 2002, whenboth sides had 
readied their nuclear arsenals. 

At that point a million troops had eyeballed each other across the 
line of control, the de facto border dividing the disputed Himalayan 
state of Kashmir. 

Telephone diplomacy by Washington, Beijing and London helped to ease 
the crisis. 

India enjoys a substantial advantage in conventional weapons over 
Pakistan and says it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons. 

Pakistan has not made that commitment. 

The phone link between the top civil servants in their foreign 
ministries is, in effect, an upgrade of the hotline between the 
directors general of military operations in both countries. More 
substantive was seen to be the announcement that both sides had 
agreed to work on formalising arrangements to notify each other 
before missile tests and the nuclear test ban. 

Analysts welcomed the outcome. "The talks show that India and 
Pakistan are well set on the path of nuclear stability," a defence 
analyst, Jasjit Singh, told Reuters. 

"They recognise that they have to work on nuclear stability and risk 
reduction for their own sake and not merely to get a certificate from 
someone else." Others, however, said that the progress made could 
have been greater. 

"I think they could have gone much further than this," said Praful 
Bidwai, a writer and member of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament 
and Peace. "They could have agreed moratoriums for tests without 
conditions and for non-deployment of nuclear weapons for a number of 
years. That would have been a much bigger step towards peace." 

The talks have set the scene for the first meeting of the two 
countries' foreign ministers. Despite tense earlier exchanges between 
the pair, India's Natwar Singh and Pakistan's Khursheed Mehmood 
Kasuri have come to forge a working partnership in public. 



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