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The News International (Pakistan) May 11, 2005 The nukes' seventh anniversary Changes wrought by South Asian nukes PLAIN WORDS | M B Naqvi The international context of South Asia's nuclear weapons is important. To begin with, India and Pakistan were born as separate nations soon after the World War II ended. This War destroyed old European imperialisms making the world bipolar, characterised by an equally ferocious cold war. The WWII started between European imperialists and Axis of Fascist states. It led to a total victory after the alliance of old European imperialists with the US and a Soviet Union that had burst on the world stage in 1917. German and Italian Fascists, supported by Japan, were defeated. Fascists were aggressive nationalists who wanted to carve out empires of their own by war. The bipolar post- WWII world was mostly dominated by US, the real victor of the 1939-45 war, with the Soviets challenging it. British imperialism gave way to the newly independent states of India and Pakistan, later also Bangladesh. They found the world divided and Nehru's India chose to follow a course of non-alignment along with the likes of Marshal Tito, Gemal Nasser and Sukarno. Pakistan looked for outside support (against India) and the US happily accepted it, although insisting not to have become a partisan against India. The US supported all Pakistan's Bonapartes in scuttling democracy and made Pakistan a satellite. Nehru's heritage was a state committed to secular liberalism, social reforms -- chiefly ending feudal land tenures -- vague socialism, anti-imperialism and improving the world order. All this was foreign and unfamiliar to the Muslim League's galaxy, except Jinnah who was a secular liberal. Most others proudly preserved Pakistan's inherited social system though only a few proforma and largely ineffective land ownership reforms were made. The Leaguers' consuming idea, however, was military weakness relative to India. While Nehru tried ineffectually to refashion the world, Pakistan's stalwarts sold themselves for obsolescent military equipment that failed to offset India's advantage, becoming American stooges. Ties with US caused the murder of democracy, with generals becoming the authority of last resort. Pakistan tried to counter Nehru's internationalism with a rapid pan-Islamism, hoping to become leaders of the Islamic World. Muslim kings and dictators now gracing a toothless OIC are terrified after 9/11. The US needed the Pakistan Army and a long era of roller-coaster relations between Pakistan and America ensued, involving more heartbreaks than bliss. America perfected techniques of regime changes quite early and much of the Third World was foisted with US-supporting dictators. A few former colonies chose to become satellites of the Soviets. Nehru-Tito-Sukarno and other leadership of Non-aligned Movement held the high moral ground. The people of Pakistan were baffled and angry; often hearing taunts of being American stooges. At the heart of the story is Pakistan's ties with India. Pakistan initially aligned with US to obtain support against India's highhandedness in Kashmir. The history of these ties is well known, characterised as they are by three full-scale wars and three or four quasi-wars. Pakistan, reflecting the ground reality of its own state of development and size of its resources, was never successful in these wars and fierce skirmishes. India always managed to stymie Pakistan. After 1971's decisive defeat, Pakistan opted for nuclear weapons. Its crash programme succeeded fairly soon. The exact date of its starting is not important: it was either 1972 as some have asserted, while Pakistan government talks of 1976. Anyhow Pakistan acquired nuclear capability by the mid 1980s; by 1986 it could threaten India with a nuclear riposte. Why India chose to go nuclear remains a matter of speculation. Some think that India always wanted to be a nuclear power, as the road to national grandeur. Many think that the Indians were of two minds; others believe they were more interested in moral stature; still others think they were simply going slow. Anyhow India chose 1974 to test explode a nuclear device, and has been nuclear-capable since then, as an undeclared nuclear power. Speculation about its motives remains. Why did it go nuclear after the long history of its own international campaigns against nuclear weapons and the leadership of Non-aligned Movement? That is inexplicable. Perhaps somehow Mrs. Indira Gandhi heard about the start of Pakistan's nuclear programme and wanted to warn it. Motivation is less important than the effect, however. About Pakistan there is absolutely no doubt that its nuclear programme is militaristic and India-centric. It wanted an equalizer against India's superiority in conventional armaments as well as in resources. It thought that the cheapest route to greatness was going nuclear. As soon as Pakistan had exploded its six nuclear devices in May 1998, its chattering classes went ga ga; Pakistan was termed the seventh great nuclear power of the world. A hubris set in about Pakistan's defence being impregnable. What this means is that Pakistan and India had jointly drilled a large hole in the Non-Proliferation Treaty. NPT represented a noble objective -- though largely on paper. There are contradictions in it. The five recognised nuclear powers refuse to implement the promise of NPT's Article 6, making the Treaty one-sided. Others are being asked not to make atomic bombs while the Big Five are smugly sitting on countless nuclear weapons. Except the Soviets and Chinese, the other three permanent members of the UN Security Council, have winked wickedly at Israel's nuclear weapons. America and France had actually helped it become a nuclear power. While the Big Five continue campaigning for NPT, they refuse to do what the Treaty asks them to. This is a case of double standards. True, Pakistan and India inhabit a world dominated by two, and now one, superpower. Their going nuclear simply made the international order more chaotic and has rendered the NPT into an instrument of superpower coercion, virtually cancelling its noble aim. The fact is that nobody respects India and Pakistan for their nuclear prowess. A consequence is that the road to proliferation looks rosy to many have-nots; it is only a matter of time before new members join the non-recognised nuclear powers' club. Apart from promoting proliferation by precedence, India's defection has killed non-alignment as an international force. The UN has been rendered even more farcical and the US is being respected more, after the Soviets died. India too has joined the US drive to remake Asia. The US is generally able to use the UN machinery for its purposes. And as soon as the Soviet Union expired, the Americans started crudely exploiting the UN. The latest insult inflicted on it is to nominate John Bolton as America's representative in the UN -- a man who is on record belittling the UN and affirming the intention of using it when profitable and discarding it when not required. Finally, India and Pakistan are seriously threatening their neighbourhood even more than they promote unilateralism. World Order is even more fragile and precarious today. The absence of an equal power has made the US taller than it is, while others are reduced to second rank powers in Europe, Japan and China. While the US knows what it wants, others find the world less predictable than before. There is also very little chance of Pakistan and India being welcomed into the Nuclear Club or NPT as a recognised nuclear power, as is their immediate objective. The two remain secondary powers at best, nukes notwithstanding. _________________________________ SOUTH ASIANS AGAINST NUKES (SAAN): An informal information platform for activists and scholars concerned about Nuclearisation in South Asia South Asians Against Nukes Mailing List: archives are available @ two locations May 1998 - March 2002: <groups.yahoo.com/group/sap/messages/1> Feb. 2001 - to date: <groups.yahoo.com/group/SAAN_/messages/1> To subscribe send a blank message to: <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> South Asians Against Nukes Website: www.s-asians-against-nukes.org SOUTH ASIANS AGAINST NUKES (SAAN): An informal information platform for activists and scholars concerned about the dangers of Nuclearisation in South Asia SAAN Website: http://www.s-asians-against-nukes.org SAAN Mailing List: To subscribe send a blank message to: [EMAIL PROTECTED] SAAN Mailing List Archive : http://groups.yahoo.com/group/SAAN_/ ________________________________ DISCLAIMER: Opinions expressed in materials carried in the posts do not necessarily reflect the views of SAAN compilers. 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