Kenapa UNTR naik?
--------------------------------- From: Widjaja, Fordyanto (Research) [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, January 10, 2008 6:09 AM To: undisclosed-recipients Subject: United Tractors (UNTR.JK): Coal Asset Acquisition + Progress in Power Plant Projects Development Hi, United Tractors (UNTR) and Tuah Turranga Agung (TTA) have recently signed a conditional sales and purchase agreement, where the former will acquire a 93% stake in the latter, through equity and mandatory convertible bond purchases at a total transaction value of US$115.6 million. According to a UNTR press release, TTA indirectly holds coal mining concession rights in Kapuas Tengah, Central Kalimantan, where the concession area totals 5,000 ha, lasting for 30 years. At present, TTA is estimated to have about 40 million tons of mineable reserves. The TTA acquisition is value accretive for UNTR, in our view. We are bullish this on two grounds: 1) Firstly, we believe the acquisition price is compelling versus the prevailing market valuation- the transaction translates to US$3/ton reserve valuation vs. recent coal asset acquisitions in Indonesia, which are valued around US$6-9; While we understand that TTA is a non-producing coal mining concession, the transaction would still be valued at only US$5/ton, if we assume annual coal production of 4 million tons and initial investment of US$20 million per ton of annual production; 2) Secondly, the acquisition should be earnings-enhancing for UNTR, where company's annual coal production could double to about 8 million tpa beginning 2008; our earnings model suggests that this would advance our current earnings forecast for UNTR by about 15% in the next three years. Government 10,000 MW coal-fired power plant program continues its progress. As of January 2008, Bisnis Indonesia reported that eight out of eight signed projects under the government fast track program, which consists of 10 projects, are now undergoing construction - as opposed to five projects back in August 2007. The eight projects are expected to commence operations by, at the latest, March 2010. We reckon this positive development will fuel positive sentiment on UNTR's stock price, and scheduled delivery of these coal-fired power plant projects should triple Indonesia's coal consumption to about 150 million tpa beginning 2012. Risk to our call: 1) Reversal on coal price trend; 2) deceleration in oil palm plantation expansion in Indonesia; 3) delayed consummation or cancellation of the TTA acquisition; and 4) protracted execution of the signed power plant projects by the government. Attached please find the report. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact me. Many thanks. Regards, Fordyanto Widjaja Morgan Stanley 23 Church Street | #16-01 Capital Square Singapore, 049481 Phone: +65 6834-6739 [EMAIL PROTECTED] --------------------------------- This is not an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy/sell the securities/instruments mentioned. Morgan Stanley may deal as principal in or own or act as market maker to securities/instruments mentioned or may advise the issuers. This may refer to a research analyst/research report. For additional information, research reports and important disclosures, contact me or see https://secure.ms.com. We do not represent this is accurate or complete and we may not update this. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. This communication is solely for the addressee(s) and may contain confidential information. We do not waive confidentiality by mistransmission. Contact me if you do not wish to receive these communications. This communication is directed in the UK to those persons who are professional and eligible counterparties (as defined in the UK Financial Services Authority's rules). --------------------------------- Looking for last minute shopping deals? Find them fast with Yahoo! Search.
