Asian thermal coal prices overheated, may correctPERTH, July 2 (Reuters) - Thermal coal prices in Asia may soon correct as a more than 30-percent surge in three weeks to a record $200 a tonne forces utilities to put off purchases, but the fall is unlikely to be sharp. Even though traders might look to take profits in coming weeks, which would weaken prices, record high oil and expectations that China would cut exports would prevent a plunge in prices that have quadrupled from a year ago, traders and analysts said. "End users are already baulking at the price," said a trader from a major European firm based in Singapore. "Some utilities were looking to get 2009 supplies but they are now saying that can wait until prices come off." Prices broke the $200 psychological level on Tuesday, extending a four-week rally that came amid signs that miners in Australia, including Xstrata Plc (XTA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and BHP Billiton Plc/Ltd (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), were diverting the fuel into more lucrative steel coal markets, further crimping already tight supplies. The trend has led some producers and traders to close the gap between thermal coal and semi-soft coking coal, sold at between $230-$250 a tonne, traders and analysts said. Semi-soft coking coal is traditionally sold at around a 15 percent premium to thermal coal prices. Analysts and traders said expectations that China, the world's largest coal producer and consumer, would significantly cut its coal export quotas later this year and potentially cause a supply crunch in the Pacific market also helped boost prices. "There hasn't been new drivers. In a market that is chronically short of supplies, prices can move quite strongly just based on sentiments and expectations," said Clyde Henderson, an analyst at Barlow Jonker Pty, a unit of Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd. A 30,000 tonne of Australian coal shipment for loading in December was traded at $201 a tonne late on Tuesday, data from electronic platform globalCOAL showed. Five other shipments for delivery between the August to October period were traded near record levels of between $195-$197 a tonne. South African coal prices are also within days of reaching unprecedented levels of $200 a tonne free-on-board Richards Bay, producers, traders and consumers said. [ID:nL0192493] "The supply risks are already priced in. I think some people may start to take profits now and that will lead to a correction in the market. But its unlikely that it'll be a $50-$100 drop in prices," said a Sydney-based coal trader. "I'm not sure how one can justify a $50 jump in a matter of less than a month. But you can make a pretty strong case that it's not a bubble driven price." --- On Wed, 7/2/08, Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: From: Jack Cowok <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [saham] DON'T PANIC - BUY BUY BUY !!! To: [email protected] Cc: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Date: Wednesday, July 2, 2008, 8:33 PM Index minus banyak, karena ZP men dump BUMI. ZP sudah menyebarkan ISU jauh2 hari : Apa pak BUMI_T dari ZP ya. Dengan memanfaatkan harga minyak. Posisi saya: BUY Salam Gain JACK
