Darling, kalo aku sih udah ogah megang INDF. Capek ah... Mending UNVR yg suka diborong sama broker asing, lumayan buat beli bensin... Deh... ;-(
On 7/4/08, swan silo <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > TETAPLAH OPTIMIS TERHADAP BATUBARA......... > > Subject: Fw: Buy BUMI INDF Initiation (Sales Note 4 July 08) > > > > > > > > > > > > *BUMI: Buy *INDF initiate with Buy *GEM awaiting Bear-Mkt rally > BUMI: Value emerging > Stock's weakness is an opportunity: U$350mn worth of BUMI traded yesterday, > the uppermost anyone in this desk can recall and nearly 4x of its AD/TO and > was half of U$ 800mio the IDX churned. Stock is so widely owned hence face > high possibility of having nervous holders exiting anytime. Local also > associates the name to a hypothesis that on big sell-off days 'certain big > holders' could sell out - to raise cash so they can buy back when the stock > rebound. Newcastle remains >U$ 170/t and Vicky Binnsmy continue to believe > the market remain very tight with no indication to soften. BUMI > currentlytrades on 9.3xE with 74% EPSg and 64% ROE, having assume U$ 135/t > on 2009-9, U$ 100/ton 2010 and U$ 65/t LT. Buy! > Overnight the API2 index failed to spike back, though prices steeled at > 205/t after bobbled around previous close. Market still nervous, but Vicky > Binns reiterates fundamentals are unchanged, and with current crude > positioning to breach $150, it will take some market players conviction to > trade coal down too far the opposite direction. She pointed also talk about > China removing VAT on thermal coal imports which could move China to a > major importer of thermal coal through the south as this would more than > compensate for the freight differential between Northern China and Indonesia > to Guangdong (~$5 in favour of Northern China ). We remain bullish on > coal. All incremental demand comes from emerging markets and until > speculations of recession becomes a reality, it's premature to discuss > demand destruction in energy. We believe prices will remain tight and equity > brokers will need to further upgrade prices in company earnings. Vicky's top > pick in Asia are PTBA and BUMI. > http://research1.ml.com/C/?q=QqBQKqxgCS%2FltljEpgrEYA%3D%3D > INDF: initiate w/ Buy PxT Rp3,125 > Bonny resumed coverage on INDF with Buy PxT Rp 3,125. INDF's ability to > pass on rising costs, combined with easing competition and softening raw > material costs will help sustain margins at its noodle and flour bizz. In > fact, we expect EBIT margin for flour to expand to 11.3% by YE08 from 7% as > of 1Q08.INDF has raised prices by 20% YTD, but still manage to keep market > share stable at 60% for flour and 77% noodle, thanks to its well-recognized > brand and preference for its taste. Competition in noodle bizz has eased as > competitors now focus on profitability rather than mkt share. Wheat price > which made up 90% of flour cost has softened since March. In addition, INDF > is abeneficiary of firm CPO price thanks to its acquisition of 64% stake in > LSIP in Nov '07, which will boost EBIT contributions from plantations from > 43% in 2007 to 59% by 2010.INDF is now the 2nd largest plantation in Indo > with total planted area of 186,000ha. Trades at 11x '09P/E, 39% > disc to global peers. If westrip out the plantation subsidiaries, INDF's > noodle and flour bizz trades at only 7.3x '09 P/E! > GEM outflow > Are we approaching a Bear-Market rally? EM long-only funds saw another big > $4.3bn redemptions in week to July 2nd and Mike Hartnett's flow trading rule > is now firmly in "Buy" territory. EEM may test $120 (Jan intraday low was > $122) before investors attempt to catch the guillotine (chart). Other > awaited catalysts: i) spike in VIX, ii) oil prices/inflation expectations > down, iii) rally in short rates/global financials. In addition, investors > are now furiously capitulating out of global growth plays and any H1 > "winners" e.g. Brazil . The 20 consecutive days of redemptions totaling > $14bn rivals big outflow periods of Jan'08 & Jun'06. Big outflows relative > to norm are seen in GEM, Asia, LatAm , India , Taiwan , Thailand . > <<sg2008070359682.gif>> <<INDF.pdf>> > Market Talks > *BIraised rate by 25bps to 8.75% yest'. The move was widely expected by the > market and aimed at containing double-digit inflation from higher fuel and > food prices. BI said it would maintain a "measured" monetary policy and use > a combination of monetary tools to ease inflation, suggesting no aggressive > rate increases in the near term. (reuters) > * ANTMto pay US$66.5mn for 10% interest in Australia-listed Oxiana Ltd.'s > Martabe gold and silver project in N.Sumatera. The transactions require > approval from the boards of Oxiana, ANTM and the Indon govt. Oxiana is > spending US$310mn to dig a giant open pit mine at Martabe, which it > estimates will yield 200,000 ounces of gold and 2mn ounces of silver a year > starting in 2010. (reuters) > *ELTY acquired 99.5% of PT Bahana Sukma Sejahtera for Rp45.95bn on 30 Jun > 2008. Bahana Sukma owned 461ha of land around Bogor Nirwana Residence, one > of ELTY's residential project. ( Bisnis Indonesia ) > *BUMI: Herald recommended shareholders to accept BUMI's bid of AU$2.85 /shr. > Bumi raised its bid earlier this week, trumping a AU$2.80 a share offer from > ANTM-Zhongjin (reuters) > * Indonesia to renegotiate existing mining contracts, Energy Minister > Purnomo Yusgiantoro said. Since 2006, parliament has been discussing a > mining law. According to the draft law, contracts of miners operating in in > Indonesia must be adjusted in line with the new mining law if approved, but > with a 5yrs transition period. No other details at the moment. Current > working contracts are valid for 30 years with an option to extend for > further 20 years, whereas the new mining agreements will only be valid for > 20 years with an option to extend. (reuters) > > Santy Tandiana > Merrill Lynch Indonesia > Dir: 6221-515 8997 > Mob: 62-8151-4355-954 > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL (Disclaimer) > ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > This e-mail message is intended only for the use of the individual or entity > to which it is addressed and may contain information that is privileged, > confidential and exempt from disclosure. 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