Pak Dimas, punya analisa serupa utk sektor property? Thanks Salam
On 9/16/11, Dimas Yoga <[email protected]> wrote: > Siapa tahu bisa bermanfaat > > > Salam, > Dimas > > > > ---------- Forwarded message ---------- > > ** > > ****** > > ** ** > > ** ** > > ** ** > > *******Indonesia****** Equity Sales > * > > September 16, 2011** > > ** ** > > *Highlights of the Day * > > * * > > · *Markets: Review and Outlook* > > · *SEA Coal Sector: Export Ban: If Passed, Will It be Enforced?* > > · *Astra International: Toyota’s Production Capacity in Indonesia to > Increase by Early 2013* > > · *Local News: ASII* > > · *Pictures of the Day: Bank Indonesia Destroys Counterfeit Rupiah > Bills* > > * * > > *Markets: Review and Outlook* > > * * > > *Equities:* The **JCI** closed a tad lower at 3774 yesterday, supported by > afternoon bargain hunting buys in bank stocks following earlier broad market > losses. Telecom stocks, however, were firm during the recent market > corrections. Turnover was decent at US$580 mn. Our order pad is quite thin > this morning, with balanced buying (oil and gas, industrials, cement) and > selling (plantation, coal and pulp and paper). **** > > ** ** > > *Fixed Income:* Benchmark yield closed 7bps lower at 7.15% yesterday. > Following the big sell-off in the bond market on Sept. 14, Bank **** > Indonesia**** is considering to potentially launch a reverse auction. Based > on the latest data, the outstanding amount of government bond stands at > US$28.8 bn, vs US$29.5 bn before the sell-off. **** > > ** ** > > *Currency:* The rupiah closed slightly stronger at 8,804/US$ yesterday. > Lingering concerns over the Eurozone debt crisis and slowing global growth > weighed on the rupiah. The MoF stated it is preparing a stimulus package – > to be implemented in 1H12, if the global macro conditions worsened – to > boost consumption and investment to maintain domestic growth. Bank ** > Indonesia**, on the other hand, signalled that it might join **Brazil** and > ****Turkey**** to cut interest rate. **** > > * * > > *SEA Coal Sector: Export Ban: If Passed, Will It be Enforced?* > > *Sales commentary: A realistic picture drawn by Poom on the Indonesian coal > industry’s regulatory environment, in our view. We also think regulatory > noises will continue for the years to come as the government struggles to > find balanced and practical solutions to control coal exports and securing > domestic supply. * > > * * > > · The Ministry of Energy and Minerals has been *drafting regulations > to ban low-rank coal export beginning 2014* and requiring low-rank coal > exporters to upgrade the fuel quality to pass the export ban threshold. **** > > · Analyst Paworamon Suvarnatamee doubts the timing and practicality > of the aforesaid regulation, as *2014 is the general election year*, > while *coal > upgrading technology is not yet available* in a commercial scale. If signed, > the *strict enforcement of the regulation is also unclear* (*case in point*: > ****Indonesia****’s coal Domestic Market Obligation regulation).**** > > · Poom *believes 5,100 kcal/kg will be the likely threshold*. In > this case, *none of the coal companies under CS coverage will be impact*. > But *if the threshold is 5,700 kcal/kg*, *Indika Energy* (INDY, O, PT > Rp3,900) and *Adaro Energy* (ADRO, U, PT Rp2,050) *will be impact*, due to > their relatively higher proportion of low-rank coal sales vs peers.**** > > · Poom is *positive on the coal sector* amid *seasonally higher > winter demand* (and price). Her top picks are: *Indo Tambangraya* (ITMG, O, > PT Rp57,000) and *Banpu* (BANP BK, O, THB885). **** > > * * > > *Astra International (ASII, N, PT Rp79,200): Toyota’s Production Capacity in > Indonesia to Increase by Early 2013* > > *Sales commentary: With 8M11 industry car sales of 580k units and 35% > Toyotamarket share, TMMI plant is running, at least, a double shift, > in our > estimates. Note that ASII owns only 5% stake in TMII (but 30% stake in Astra > Daihatsu Motor), and the bulk of earnings from the Toyota car business comes > from distribution – through Auto 2000. With the strong dealership network, a > strong brand equity and after-sales service, Toyota’s market leadership > position is unchallenged in Indonesia. * > > * * > > · **Toyota** Motor Corporation (TMC) stated that ***Toyota**** Motor > Manufacturing Indonesia (TMMI) will build a second plant in Karawang (NW > Jakarta), adding 70,000 units p.a. production capacity* *by 2013* with total > investment of US$343 mn. With the new Karawang Plant, *TMMI total production > capacity will be 180,000 units p.a.***** > > · Analyst Teddy Oetomo is positive on TMC move, which signifies > company’s commitment in ****Indonesia**** automotive industry. Teddy > estimates* Indonesia car sales to grow 15-17% p.a. for the next three years, > *which has been* largely priced-in into ASII share price*.**** > > * * > > *Local News: ASII*** > > *Please note that the items below are taken directly from local newspapers. > Hence, Credit Suisse does not guarantee the accuracy of the stories.*** > > **** > > *Astra International (ASII, N, PT Rp79,200): August Car Sales: -18% MoM* > > Indonesia Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) stated August car sales > totalled 73,279 units (-17.7% MoM, +13.3% YoY). Gaikindo added ****Indonesia > **** 8M11 car sales totalled 580,022 units (+14.4% YoY). **** > > * * > > *Sales commentary: Lower August car sales are expected, though it is not as > bad as projected – Gaikindo previously expect 21% MoM drop. Indonesia 8M11 > car sales is in-line with our 2011 projection of 894k units. * > > * * > > *Pictures of the Day: Bank Indonesia Destroys Counterfeit Rupiah Bills*** > > * * > > [image: foto pemusnahan uang palsu]**** > > ** ** > > [image: foto pemusnahan uang palsu]**** > > ** ** > > *Bank Indonesia officers and police force members destroy counterfeit rupiah > bills in the central bank’s machine room. The counterfeit bills, in various > denominations, confiscated from 2003-10 crimes, amount to (only) Rp24 bn > (US$2.8 mn).* > > * * > > Many thanks and regards,**** > > *Fordyanto Widjaja, **CFA*** > > Vice President - Indonesia Equity Sales**** > > PT Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia**** > > Direct: +62 21 2553 7909**** > > Mobile: +62 816 884 223**** > > Dealing: +62 21 2553 7920**** > > Toll Free: 001 800 1233 2526 (HK), +800 1233 2526 (SIN/UK/US)**** > > ** ** > > Please follow the attached hyperlink to an important disclaimer: > http://www.credit-suisse.com/asiapac/legal/securities/** > > ** > > ============================================================================== > Please access the attached hyperlink for an important electronic > communications disclaimer: > http://www.credit-suisse.com/legal/en/disclaimer_email_ib.html > ============================================================================== > **** > -- Sent from my mobile device ------------------------------------ Kunjungi situs http://www.info-saham.com untuk informasi seputar saham. 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